MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European stocks were lower on Tuesday in a cautious session as
investors anticipated further interest rate rise from central banks
this week.
Further significant interest-rate rises are likely to be on
their way after the European Central Bank delivers what is widely
expected to be a 50 basis-point increase on Thursday as
policymakers focus on reducing high levels of inflation.
Read more here
Stocks to Watch
European and U.S. hot-rolled coil steel prices are recovering,
spurred by confidence from Chinese policy announcements, which
ought to lead to a rebound of steelmaker margins in 2023, Deutsche
Bank said.
"Although the environment remains fragile, we expect a further
recovery and believe marginal EU capacity is likely to act as a
backstop should prices correct again."
Steel stocks are still attractive, based on valuation and
underlying cash generation, and Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal is
among the bank's top picks in carbon steel due to its non-European
exposure and raw-material integration, DB said.
So too is Voestalpine due to the Austrian company's intrinsic
quality, defensive end-market exposure and solid cash
generation.
---
Leonardo's exposure to the Italian, U.K and U.S. markets as well
as the helicopters segment could hamper growth at the Italian
aerospace-and-defense company, UBS said as it downgraded the stock
to neutral from buy.
The company makes more than 55% of sales in those markets, which
"in our view have more limited growth potential given current
fiscal pressures and already high share of GDP spent towards
defense," UBS added.
Leonardo's portfolio also has high exposure to the helicopters
segment, which account for more than 30% of sales, but have
received little attention under new defence spending programs, UBS
said.
Central Banks
Inflation prints coming this week will prove crucial in
navigating the road ahead in the ECB's policy, NatWest Markets
said.
"We think the ECB is more likely to land at terminal rates
around 3-3.25% (we forecast +25bp in both March and May, with risks
to 50bp-25bp) than 3.5%, attempting to find a soft landing ."
NatWest Markets expects the ECB to both acknowledge the change
in market pricing since December and lower gas prices, but at the
same time to upgrade the growth outlook.
A 50 basis point interest-rate rise this week is all but
certain, in line with market expectations, NatWest Markets
added.
---
As a 25 basis point interest-rate rise by the Fed this week is
perfectly anticipated by the markets, investors may instead focus
on Jerome Powell's communication for the next steps, Allianz Global
Investors said.
However, core inflation remains high in a context where economic
activity continues to show some resilience even if recent trends
validate that the inflation peak is behind in the U.S., it
added.
"As a result, we do not expect any complacency from the Fed,"
Allianz said, expecting the Fed to reaffirm its willingness to keep
rates high for a long time to come, in order to ensure a
sustainable decline in inflation towards its price stability
objective.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures edged lower, ahead of a spate of corporate
earnings and the start of the Fed's two-day meeting.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked down to
3.527% from 3.550% Monday.
Earnings are due ahead of the market open from United Parcel
Service, Spotify, Exxon Mobil, Caterpillar, General Motors, Pfizer
and McDonald's.
Mondelez, Advanced Micro Devices and Snap are due to report
earnings after the market close.
Forex:
The dollar should perform well in a cautious environment as
traders await tomorrow's Fed decision, ING said.
The dollar should be able to continue yesterday's gains into the
meeting, with high-beta currencies remaining main underperformers
in the risk-off environment, it said.
"Our view...is that the Fed still has an interest in hanging on
to a hawkish rhetoric and pushing back against speculation of an
early peak and--above all--rate hikes in 2023.," ING added.
"The net result for the dollar may be positive."
Bonds:
Income is finally back in fixed-income thanks to higher yields
and coupons, BlackRock Investment Institute said.
Short-term government bonds and investment-grade credit now
offer some of the highest yields in the last two decades, it
added.
BlackRock's preference for earning income right now is from
high-quality fixed income assets as rates rise and stay high.
"Fixed income's appeal remains intact the longer central banks
keep rates near their peak."
The lack of duration--or the sensitivity of bond prices to
interest rates--in short-term paper also helps preserve income even
if yields rise anew, BlackRock said.
---
The government bond market rally this year was a little
overdone, UniCredit Research said, adding that it came as no
surprise that the mood has scaled down prior to the Fed and ECB
meetings this week.
Economic data are still in the driver's seat, even as the
release of German inflation data has been postponed, thus one major
impulse for bond markets gone, UniCredit said.
Eurozone government bonds were reversing Monday's pressure, with
10-year bond yields trading lower.
Energy:
Oil prices were 1% lower as the market awaits clarity on Chinese
demand and Russian supplies.
Russian oil exports continued to show resilience in the face of
an impending EU crude products ban set to come into force
Sunday.
"Russian oil continues to flow eastbound, which of course, is
great news for Central Bankers, broader markets, and Brent Crude
short sellers," SPI Asset Management said.
With China's Lunar New Year holiday having now passed, investors
are also looking for clues that the nation's demand for crude is
recovering.
Metals:
Base metals and gold were lower early in the London session, as
traders await tomorrow's Fed decision on interest rates.
Gold prices remained strong, however, and are currently on track
for their third monthly gain.
"Financial conditions have loosened and markets have rallied on
softer inflation metrics over the past month," Peak Trading
Research said.
"Traders expect that Powell will have a hawkish message tomorrow
to temper some of this enthusiasm," Peak Trading Research said,
noting that the fall in metals prices today reflect profit taking
given the possibility of a pivot from the Fed.
DOW JONES NEWSPLUS
EMEA HEADLINES
Eurozone's Economy Outpaced China and U.S. in 2022
The eurozone economy grew faster than China and the U.S. last
year, underlining how the fading Covid-19 pandemic continues to
scramble traditional patterns of global growth.
Figures released by the European Union's statistics agency
Tuesday showed the currency- area's economy grew at an annualized
rate of 0.5% as higher energy costs weighed on household spending.
This translated into 3.5% growth in gross domestic product for 2022
as a whole, a faster rate than seen in either China or the U.S.
UBS Attracts Wealthy Clients to Help Lift Profit
UBS Group AG said wealth clients added new assets at the bank in
the fourth quarter, helping it post a better-than-expected net
profit.
The Swiss bank made a $1.65 billion quarterly net profit, more
than the $1.28 billion analysts expected and up from $1.35 billion
a year earlier. Inflows from its wealth customers picked up in the
quarter across most regions, lifting the annualized growth above
the bank's 5% target, to 7.9%.
UniCredit to Hand $5.70 Bln to Shareholders After Record Profit
- Update
Italy's UniCredit SpA plans to distribute 5.25 billion euros
($5.70 billion) to shareholders in the coming months, EUR1.5
billion more than in the previous year, after the bank swung to a
profit in the fourth quarter and posted revenue well ahead of
analysts' forecasts.
The Italian bank said Tuesday that the distribution, subject to
supervisory board and shareholder approvals, would consist of a
EUR1.91 billion cash dividend and a share buyback of EUR3.34
billion. A first tranche of the buyback worth some EUR2.34 billion
will launch once approved by the company's annual general meeting
at the end of March, followed by another tranche of around EUR1
billion in the second half of the year.
Talking Markets: Further Hefty ECB Interest-Rate Rises Could
Follow This Week's Increase
Further significant interest-rate rises are likely to be on
their way after the European Central Bank delivers what is widely
expected to be a 50 basis-point increase on Thursday as
policymakers focus on reducing high levels of inflation.
The ECB's deposit rate currently stands at 2.0%. A
half-percentage-point increase this week would take it to 2.5%.
French Economy Expanded Slightly in 4Q
France's economy eked out a small expansion in 2022's fourth
quarter, shrugging off recession fears for this winter as the
government cushioned households and businesses from high energy
prices.
The French economy, eurozone's second-largest, grew by a
marginal 0.1% from October to December compared with the previous
three-month period, slowing from a 0.2% expansion recorded in the
third quarter, according to preliminary data from the country's
statistics office Insee released Tuesday.
French Workers Mount New Strike Against Macron's Pension
Overhaul
PARIS-French workers are taking to the streets for the second
time in two weeks, piling more pressure on President Emmanuel
Macron's plans to raise France's retirement age and threatening
further walkouts that could grind much of the country to a
halt.
Striking teachers and railway, health and oil workers are
staging marches in dozens of cities as a part of a nationwide day
of action called by unions to force the government to back down
from its pension overhaul. Train, subway and bus services are
severely curtailed, and dozens of flights have been canceled. Many
schools and nurseries will remain closed.
IMF Upgrades Outlook for Global Economy as Inflation Eases and
China Reopens
WASHINGTON-Resilient demand, easing inflation and China's
reopening should allow the global economy to grow a bit faster than
previously expected, the International Monetary Fund said.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, released Monday Washington
time, the IMF sees the global economy growing 2.9% this year, up
from its October projection of 2.7%. The IMF expects growth to
accelerate to 3.1.% in 2024, still less than last year's 3.4%.
Blinken Set to Meet Palestinian Leader Abbas as Tensions
Flare
RAMALLAH, West Bank-U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will
meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday to
press for calm after a surge in violence in the West Bank and
Jerusalem.
"We have a lot on our hands in this moment," Mr. Blinken said
Tuesday morning before a meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav
Gallant.
GLOBAL NEWS
Labor Report to Give Fed Look at Wage Inflation
Worker-pay and benefits data set for release Tuesday will shed
light on whether the Federal Reserve is successfully cooling fast
wage growth as officials meet to consider further increases in
interest rates.
Other recent data has shown that rapid wage growth has begun to
slow, putting less pressure on prices. The Fed has aggressively
raised interest rates in the past year with the aim of tamping down
on the economy to tame inflation. Central-bank officials are
starting a two-day meeting Tuesday.
Private Equity Taps Insurers' Cash to Speed Up Growth
Investment firms that play on the cutting edge of finance are
turning to one of the oldest businesses on Wall Street to
turbocharge their growth: insurance.
Private-credit fund managers such as Blackstone Inc., Carlyle
Group Inc. and Centerbridge Partners are increasingly forming
partnerships with insurers, or buying them outright. Call it the
merger of slow money and fast money.
Pro Take: Construction Sector Strength Could Undermine Fed's
Effort to Cool Inflation
The Federal Reserve has started to see some progress in its
nearly yearlong campaign to cool inflation, but there is one area
that could prove problematic: construction.
While the single-family housing market has slowed as mortgage
rates have surged, particularly pinching first-time buyers, other
segments of the construction industry are still fueling
inflation.
U.S. Pushes for Military Sites in Philippines to Counter
China
WASHINGTON-The U.S. is hoping to reach an agreement this week to
open as many as four U.S. military sites at Philippine bases in
Washington's latest push to expand its strategic footprint across
the region to counter threats from China, U.S. officials said.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is meeting later this week with
recently elected Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in
Manila and hopes to secure the deal, which would rotate groups of
U.S. forces to sites in the country, U.S. officials said.
Joe Biden to End Covid-19 Emergency Declarations on May 11,
White House Says
President Biden will end a national emergency and public-health
emergency declaration for Covid-19 on May 11, the White House said
Monday, signaling a shift in the nation's approach to a pandemic
that has claimed more than 1.1 million lives in the U.S.
The public-health emergency was first declared in January 2020,
under the Trump administration, and has been renewed by 90 days
every time it was due to expire. The national health emergency and
the public-health emergency are now set to expire on March 1 and
April 11, respectively, but the White House said the administration
planned to extend the declarations to May 11 and then "end both
emergencies on that date."
DOJ Closes Investigation Into Former Gen. John Allen Without
Bringing Charges
The Justice Department dropped an investigation into whether
retired Marine Gen. John Allen allegedly lobbied for the Qatari
government, with federal prosecutors declining to bring criminal
charges, Gen. Allen's defense lawyer said.
A Justice Department spokesman declined to comment but a person
familiar with the matter confirmed that federal prosecutors have
closed the investigation.
Australia's Nuclear Safety Agency Joins the Hunt for Missing
Radioactive Capsule
ADELAIDE, Australia-Authorities intensified their search for a
missing capsule containing radioactive material in Australia's far
west, deploying car-mounted detection equipment for the first time
as they began to retrace a truck's nearly 900-mile journey across
the Outback.
The capsule, which is less than a third of an inch long and
contains Cesium-137, is believed to have fallen from a truck
somewhere between Rio Tinto PLC's Gudai-Darri mine and Perth, the
capital of Western Australia. An initial search using hand-held
radiation monitors failed to find the capsule, which was discovered
to be missing on Jan. 25, prompting a public health alert.
Biden Administration Considers Cutting Off Huawei From U.S.
Suppliers
WASHINGTON-The Biden administration is considering entirely
cutting off Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies
Co. from U.S. suppliers over national-security concerns by
tightening export controls targeting the firm, according to people
familiar with the matter.
The move-should the administration move forward-would mark the
latest salvo in the high-stakes clash between the world's two
largest economies as U.S. policy makers seek to counter China's
industrial policy they say threatens Western interests.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 31, 2023 06:23 ET (11:23 GMT)
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