MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
Most European stock markets edged lower on Monday, after a
stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report cast doubt on how quickly
the Federal Reserve will ease its pace of interest-rate hikes.
The jobs data keeps the Fed on track to raise interest rates in
two weeks by a half percentage point, which would bring the
benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% from
its current range. It also underscores the risk that officials will
lift the rate above 5% in the first half of next year.
The downbeat mood in Europe was despite strong gains in Hong
Kong and China after local Chinese authorities took more steps to
ease strict Covid-19 policies that have crimped the country's
growth.
Stocks to Watch
Saint-Gobain's long-term growth potential should entice
investors as green building renovations accelerate worldwide,
Jefferies said. Ambitions from the European Union and the U.S.
should boost confidence in long-term growth from global
decarbonization.
"With a portfolio of products heavily focused on carbon
reduction in existing buildings and new residential build, we
believe continued momentum in government initiatives and regulation
can drive Saint-Gobain revenues to out-perform its local
construction markets through the longer term," Jefferies said.
It raised its rating on the French company to buy from hold and
its target price to EUR65 from EUR41.40.
---
Swisscom looks like a steady option in the European
telecommunications sector, Deutsche Bank said, adding, however,
that recent outperformance versus peers warranted a downgrade on
the stock.
Swisscom's reasonable competition environment, forensic
attention to costs and stable dividend put the Swiss company at the
steadier end of the telecom spectrum, Deutsche Bank said.
"Quality is worth paying for, but we now note, post recent
outperformance versus peers, that the stock's risk versus reward
balance warrants a downgrade to sell [from hold]," Deutsche Bank
said. It also cut its target price to CHF465 from CHF510.
Economic Insight
The U.K. economy is set to fall into a recession, which is
likely to cause a 2% peak-to-trough fall in GDP, a bigger slump
than what's expected in other advanced economies, Pantheon
Macroeconomics said.
Household finances will be hit hard by the rapid withdrawal of
energy bills support, while higher interest rates will also squeeze
incomes of those who have to refinance their mortgage. Better news
might come on the inflation front, as price growth has likely
peaked and is expected to fall fast in 2023, Pantheon said.
It expects inflation to average 6.5% in 2023, less than the 6.9%
consensus estimate from economists taken from FactSet.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures fell ahead of data on service-sector activity and
factory output.
Meantime, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 3.538%,
from 3.502% Friday. The yield has fallen for four straight weeks on
hopes slowing inflation will encourage the Fed to slow
interest-rate increases.
The increase in benchmark borrowing costs was helping contain
demand for stocks, with some analysts also noting that techinical
factors may hobble a rally that has seen the S&P 500 rise 13.8%
from its 2022 low hit in mid October.
BTIG noted that though stocks were benefiting from lower
Treasury yields in recent months, the S&P 500 remained within
its downtrend, and the CBOE VIX index, a measure of expected market
volatility, was now at the levels sometimes associated with trader
complacency.
U.S. economic updates set for release on Monday include the
final November S&P U.S. services PMI, the ISM services index
for November and the October factory orders.
There will be no Fed speakers until after its policy-setting
meeting on Dec. 14.
Forex:
The dollar's gains after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs
data proved brief and it soon turned lower, suggesting it won't
return to this year's peak and will most likely weaken in 2023,
Swissquote said.
However, the falls won't be smooth as Fed interest rates still
need to rise further, Swissquote said.
The broadly weak dollar helped sterling rise to a near six-month
high of $1.2346, but the gains soon fade and ING said a rise beyond
$1.25 looks unlikely.
"We struggle to see cable [GBP/USD] extend its rally to 1.25 and
beyond, " ING said. "A contraction below 1.20 seems more
appropriate given global and U.K. macro fundamentals."
Ahead of next week's Bank of England decision--which comes
alongside various other rate decisions, including in the U.S. and
eurozone--the pound is likely to be driven largely by the dollar
and by risk sentiment, ING said.
Bonds:
German 10-year Bund yields could trade in narrow ranges until
the European Central Bank's December meeting, Morgan Stanley
said.
It believes "the worst-case scenario is a 1.80/2.00% trading
range" until the meeting, with a potential overshooting risk
limited to 1.75%.
However, it acknowledged that the yield could return to its fair
value or trade even a bit cheap going into the heavy eurozone
government bond supply in January.
---
French government bond yields edged lower, broadly in line with
the eurozone peers, after Friday's rating reviews.
S&P affirmed France's 'AA' rating but revised the outlook to
"negative" from "stable", while Moody's affirmed its 'Aa2' rating,
keeping the "stable" outlook unchanged.
"The negative outlook reflects our view of rising risks to
France's public finances and the resulting reduction in fiscal
space," S&P said.
This comes amid France's already large general government debt,
implementation risk associated with its structural reform agenda, a
wider economic slowdown, and the European Central Bank's monetary
policy tightening.
Energy:
Oil pared early gains at the start of a crucial week for energy
markets, as the impact of a ban and price cap on Russian oil
remains unclear. Prices had risen more than 2% in early Asian
trading.
Oil traders have many factors to consider Monday, with the price
cap and EU ban on Russian oil coming into force and OPEC over the
weekend deciding to leave its production levels unchanged. Some
expectations had built that the cartel was considering increasing
output so its decision to hold fire could be driving the modest
gains.
Oil market participants are wondering what the impact of a
Western-led price on Russian oil due to come into force Monday will
be. According to JPMorgan, the answer is "likely nothing."
The EU's $60 a barrel cap is higher than the price of Russian
oil at key ports on the Black and Baltic Seas. Russia's Urals crude
has recently traded between $65 and $70, though the price at some
ports is below $55 a barrel.
The EU and G-7 said they will renew the price cap regularly. If
they continue to set the level "close to Russia's realized price,
then status quo will prevail with minimal market disruptions,"
JPMorgan said.
Natural Gas
European natural gas prices continued a steady climb higher as
colder temperatures across the region increased demand. Benchmark
TTF gas futures were up 5.3% recently, after ending last week with
their third consecutive weekly increase.
Colder weather still is expected in Northern Europe this week,
which will offer "the first real test of [Europe's] ability to
withstand the energy crisis and replace Russian gas flows," ANZ
said.
While U.S. flows of LNG have compensated for lost Russian
supplies, the European winter is set to coincide with reopening in
China, which will likely mean more competition for LNG cargos, ANZ
said.
Metals:
Base metals and gold edged higher as dollar weakness and more
positivity around a China reopening boosted sentiment in global
markets.
"The driving force today is the higher expectations for economic
recovery in China," Marex said. More than 10 cities had waived
proof of Covid test results for entrances into public places, it
said.
"With China's reopening seemingly a matter of time, the focus
switched to economic development," Marex said, adding this was
boosting metals demand alongside further strength from a lower
dollar.
DOW JONES NEWSPLUS
EMEA HEADLINES
Credit Suisse's Investment Bank Spinoff Attracts Saudi Crown
Prince
Saudi Arabia's crown prince and a U.S. private-equity firm run
by Barclays PLC's former chief executive are among investors
preparing to invest $1 billion or more into Credit Suisse's new
investment bank, people familiar with the matter said.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is considering an investment of
around $500 million to back the new unit, CS First Boston, and its
CEO-designate, Michael Klein, some of the people said. Additional
financial backing could come from U.S. investors including veteran
banker Bob Diamond's Atlas Merchant Capital, people familiar with
that potential investment said. Credit Suisse previously said it
had $500 million committed from an additional investor it hasn't
named.
Vodafone CEO to Step Down
Vodafone Group PLC said Monday that Nick Read has agreed to step
down as chief executive and that current Chief Financial Officer
Margherita Della Valle has been appointed as interim chief
executive.
The U.K.-based telecommunications company said Mr. Read will
step down on Dec. 31 and that he will be available as an adviser to
the board until March 31.
FDA Takes Tougher Line on Fast-Tracked Drugs
The Food and Drug Administration is taking a harder line on its
program that fast-tracks drug approvals based on preliminary
evidence, spurring GSK PLC, Roche Holdings AG and other drugmakers
to remake plans for their drugs or pull them from the market.
Under the accelerated-approval program, the FDA clears the use
of prescription medicines faster than it normally would. The agency
relies on preliminary data to make the decision, but asks companies
to conduct follow-up studies to confirm that the drug works.
Europeans Cut Back on Spending, Pointing to Recession Ahead
Europeans cut back sharply on their spending on goods during
October, a sign that high prices at the start of a period of
increasing energy usage are pushing the region's economies toward
recession.
Consumer prices have surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
and the Kremlin's decision to weaponize the country's vast stores
of energy to undermine European support for Kyiv.
Oil Price Rises After Russia Cap Kicks In
The West imposed sanctions on Russian crude, pitching the energy
conflict with Moscow into an unpredictable new phase that could
inject further volatility into global oil markets.
The European Union and U.K. barred inbound shipments of Russian
crude Monday-a watershed for a continent striving to end its
dependence on Russia's fossil fuels after Moscow invaded Ukraine
and weaponized supplies of natural gas. In tandem, the EU, the U.S.
and allies placed curbs on shipping, insuring and funding Russian
crude anywhere in the world.
OPEC+ Keeps Oil Curbs Despite Russia Price Cap
OPEC+ said Sunday it would lock in current production levels, a
pause that suggests the world's leading oil producers are uncertain
about the direction of crude prices with a price cap on Russia's
petroleum exports set to take effect.
The decision on Sunday allows the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries and a group of producers led by
Russia-collectively known as OPEC+-to take more time to assess the
market impact of an EU and Group of Seven price cap, which is
intended to crimp Russia's revenue for the Ukraine war. It locks in
a 2 million-barrels-a-day production cut decided in October.
Ukraine Says Oil-Price Cap Won't Dent Russia's Ability to Fund
War
KYIV, Ukraine-Ukraine denounced a price cap on Russian oil
agreed to by the U.S. and its allies as a weak measure that would
fail to deprive Russia's military machine of funds, as Moscow said
it could stop supplying consumers in response.
The Group of Seven agreed Friday to cap the price of Russian oil
at $60 a barrel, moving forward with an unprecedented sanction
against one of the world's largest producers following its invasion
of Ukraine.
Russia Will Rely on 'Shadow' Tanker Fleet to Keep Oil
Flowing
Shipping companies have snapped up dozens of secondhand oil
tankers this year, paying record prices for ice-class ships that
can navigate frozen seas around Russia's Baltic ports in
winter.
A driving force behind the purchases, say people familiar with
the deals: To get Russian oil to market after the harshest
sanctions to date strike Russia's energy industry next week.
Explosions Hit Russian Air Bases as More Missiles Strike
Ukrainian Infrastructure
Explosions at a pair of air bases deep inside Russia killed at
least three people and wounded six others on Monday, Russian
authorities said, while Ukrainian officials hinted at a capability
to strike deeper within Russian territory.
A fuel tanker exploded at an airfield in Ryazan, southwest of
Moscow, killing at least three people, according to RIA Novosti, a
Russian state-run news agency. The report didn't say what caused
the explosion.
U.N. Nuclear Agency Under Pressure to Share Knowledge of Alleged
Russian Abuse of Ukraine Plant Workers
Why You Can't Find Wegovy, the Weight-Loss Drug
Novo Nordisk A/S flubbed the launch of its buzzy new weight-loss
drug Wegovy, missing out on hundreds of millions of dollars in
sales and squandering a head start before a rival could begin
selling a competing product.
Wegovy is among a new class of drugs that health regulators have
approved to cut the weight of people who are obese, a goal long
sought by doctors and patients. Their weight-dropping potential
became a viral sensation on social media. Elon Musk tweeted about
Wegovy in October. And a related drug for diabetes, Ozempic, is a
hot topic in Hollywood among celebrities seeking to stay thin,
according to doctors.
Iran Disbands Morality Police, Considers Changing Hijab Laws,
Official Says
Iran's attorney general said the country had disbanded its
so-called morality police and is considering altering the
requirement that women cover their heads in public, a move that
analysts said was aimed at peeling away support for antigovernment
protests.
Mohammad-Jafar Montazeri outlined the steps Saturday, saying the
law requiring veils, known as hijabs, was under review by Iran's
Parliament and judiciary, and that the morality police had been
abolished, according to government-run news agencies.
GLOBAL NEWS
Chinese Stocks Jump After More Covid Easing
Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China jumped on Monday, after
local Chinese authorities took more steps to ease strict Covid-19
policies that have crimped the country's growth.
The Hang Seng Index was 4.5% higher on Monday afternoon in Hong
Kong, with key stocks including e-commerce giant Alibaba and
smartphone maker Xiaomi rising more than double that. The CSI 300
Index, a gauge of the largest listed companies in mainland China,
rose nearly 2% to its highest level since mid-September.
Fed Could Pencil in Higher Interest Rates Next Year While
Slowing Hikes in December
Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise their
benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point at their meeting
next week, but elevated wage pressures could lead them to continue
lifting it to higher levels than investors currently expect.
They have raised rates this year at the fastest pace since the
early 1980s, including by 0.75 point at each of their past four
meetings to combat inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated
last week that the central bank was prepared to downshift the size
of rate increases at its coming meeting on Dec. 13-14.
Bond Rally Drags 10-Year Treasury Yield Back Down to 3.5%
Hopes that inflation is easing have driven a weekslong rally in
government bonds, pulling the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield back to
3.5% for the first time since September.
Treasurys started rallying with stocks after the Labor
Department released better-than-expected consumer-price index data
on Nov. 10. That move was supercharged last week when Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent the clearest signal yet that
the central bank plans to raise short-term interest rates by half a
percentage point at its Dec. 13-14 meeting, a step down from the
0.75 percentage point increases of the past four meetings.
China Caixin Services PMI Fell to Six-Month Low
A private gauge of China's services sector slipped further into
contraction in November, the lowest reading since May, reflecting
continued downward pressures brought by the government's efforts to
stamp out Covid-19 outbreaks.
The Caixin China services purchasing managers index dropped to
46.7 in November, down from 48.4 in October, Caixin Media Co. and
S&P Global said Monday. A reading below 50 suggests a
contraction in activity.
China Loosens Covid Restrictions as Public Anger Simmers
HONG KONG-Local authorities across China are paring back some of
their strictest Covid-19 control measures, just days after public
anger spilled over into rare protests against a zero-tolerance
approach that has kept the country largely isolated for three
years.
In recent days, officials in major cities-including Beijing and
other areas where protests broke out a week ago-said they were
lifting some curbs on residents' movements, such as by ending
mandatory Covid testing for people who want to use public transport
or enter parks and other public spaces.
Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 05, 2022 06:14 ET (11:14 GMT)
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