By Yusuf Khan

The goal of removing world hunger is unlikely to be achieved by 2030, despite improvements in crop yields and agricultural practices, according to a new report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Food output and farming practices are likely to improve agricultural productivity over the next decade, but at the moment these improvements are unlikely to reduce emissions from agriculture or achieve zero hunger won't be achieved by 2030.

"To achieve the zero-hunger target while simultaneously keeping agricultural emissions on track to reach the Paris Agreement targets, average global agricultural productivity would need to increase by 28% over the next decade," the report said, adding that this would be more than triple the increase in productivity that has been seen over the last 10 years.

Crop yields would need to be 24% higher, which is close to double the rate of improvement over the last decade while animal productivity would need to increase by 31%, on average, the report said.

The two bodies called for "comprehensive action to boost agricultural investment and innovation and to enable the transfer of knowledge, technology, and skills," to help improve agricultural productivity.

The report said food consumption is likely to increase by 1.4% a year to 2031--outstripping the growth in agricultural output which is likely to be 1.1% a year. The jump in consumption is likely to be driven by lower income countries which are likely to see higher rates of population growth, it said.

Macroeconomic uncertainty is also going to be a major factor in determining agricultural output, and economic growth over the next 10 years given the substantial impact of the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war on supply chains and the economy as a whole, according to the report. The report noted the International Monetary Fund projected global GDP to grow at 2.7% a year, on average, over the next decade, "which is below the pre-crisis projections."

Meat production is likely to rise 1.5% a year over the next decade on improvements in feed for animals, but this is likely to be dominated by poultry also which should make up roughly half of all meat consumption growth, the report said.

The report had taken into account some of the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, noting both countries' importance in the global food supply chain--for example 10% and 3% of global wheat production coming from Russia and Ukraine, respectively.

The OECD and UN FAO said that because of the war, the large number of displaced people raises food-security concerns and that undernourishment is likely to increase by about 1% globally in 2022-23 which is equivalent to between about 8 million and 13 million people. This could rise to 19 million people by 2023-24 if the shortfall from Ukraine continues and no global response is taken.

Write to Yusuf Khan at yusuf.khan@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2022 04:22 ET (08:22 GMT)

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