NEW
YORK, May 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- A number of
macro variables have deteriorated since our most recent economic
growth forecast at the end of March, said S&P Global in its
article "Global Macro Update: Growth Forecasts Lowered On Longer
Russia-Ukraine Conflict And Rising Inflation." We've marked
down our GDP forecasts due to weaker first-quarter numbers in many
countries, higher energy and commodity prices, a
longer-than-expected Russia-Ukraine conflict, faster monetary policy
normalization, and slower Chinese growth.
The global economy continues to face an
unusually large number of negative shocks.
"We now expect U.S. growth to decline by 80 basis points to
2.4%, eurozone growth to drop by 60 basis points to 2.7%, and
China's growth to fall by 70 basis
points to 4.2%. Changes to 2023-2025 are relatively minor," said
Global Chief Economist Paul
Gruenwald. "The balance of risks to our baseline has
deteriorated since our last forecast and remains firmly on the
downside."
The global economy continues to face an unusually large number
of negative shocks. At the beginning of 2022, the effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic were in retreat in most geographies. As a result,
we forecast a robust but uneven rebound, with above-trend growth in
most countries and moderately high but transitory inflation. The
main questions were when economies would regain their pre-COVID-19
path of output, and what changes brought about by the pandemic
would be structural.
Two developments have altered the macro picture. One is
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February. This sent energy and
commodities prices (even) higher for (even) longer and put a dent
in confidence, which was at high levels. The second is inflation,
which has turned out to be higher, broader based, and more
persistent than thought just a few quarters ago.
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Media Contact:
Orla O'Brien, New York (1) 857-407-8559
orla.obrien@spglobal.com
S&P Global Ratings is the world's leading provider of
independent credit ratings. Our ratings are essential to driving
growth, providing transparency and helping educate market
participants so they can make decisions with confidence. We have
more than 1 million credit ratings outstanding on government,
corporate, financial sector and structured finance entities and
securities. We offer an independent view of the market built on a
unique combination of broad perspective and local insight. We
provide our opinions and research about relative credit risk;
market participants gain independent information to help support
the growth of transparent, liquid debt markets worldwide.
S&P Global Ratings is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals,
companies and governments to make decisions with confidence. For
more information, visit www.spglobal.com/ratings.
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/economic-growth-forecasts-lowered-on-longer-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-rising-inflation-article-says-301550340.html
SOURCE S&P Global