Adobe Digital Price Index: Online Inflation Slowing; Consumers Pull Back On Spending
May 11 2022 - 8:00AM
Business Wire
- Online prices in April 2022 up 2.9% on annual basis,
dropping 0.5% month-over-month
- Over half of the 18 product categories tracked by Adobe saw
price decreases
- $77.8 billion was spent online in April, over $5.28 billion
less than the prior month
Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today announced the latest online inflation
data from the Adobe Digital Price Index (DPI), powered by Adobe
Analytics. In April 2022, online prices increased 2.9%
year-over-year (YoY), down from the record 3.6% YoY increase in
March – a decrease of 0.5% month-over-month (MoM). While this marks
the 23rd consecutive month of inflation online YoY, April shows
early signs of online price increases beginning to slow. Over half
of the categories tracked by the DPI (10 out of 18) saw MoM price
decreases in April.
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Price Table (Graphic: Business Wire)
Prices for electronics were down 5.2% YoY (down 0.9% MoM), a
record YoY low for the category over the last 12 months. Prices for
apparel increased 12.3% YoY, while decreasing 1.7% MoM. Although
this is the highest YoY increase of any category, it is down from
recent highs (February at 16.7% YoY and March at 16.3% YoY). Prices
have not eased for groceries, rising 10.3% YoY (up 1.3% MoM) as
well as pet products, which rose 8.0% YoY (up 0.9% MoM), record YoY
highs for both categories.
In April, consumers spent $77.8 billion online, which represents
modest growth at 4.5% YoY. Online spending in the U.S. grew double
digits at 12.2% YoY ($71 billion) in January and 15.5% ($67
billion) in February. Consumer spending in April is also below the
$83.08 billion spent in March, representing a 6.8% decline MoM or
$5.28 billion. With rising interest rates and persistent inflation,
consumers have pulled back on spending for durable goods.
“As the cost of borrowing and economic uncertainty rises for
consumers, we are beginning to see the early impact on both online
inflation and spend,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth
marketing and insights, Adobe. “However, durable demand for
e-commerce still drove over $77 billion in spend last month, as
consumers continue to embrace the ease of online shopping and more
personalized customer experiences in the digital economy.”
The DPI provides the most comprehensive view into how much
consumers pay for goods online. Powered by Adobe Analytics, it
analyzes one trillion visits to retail sites and over 100 million
SKUs across 18 product categories: electronics, apparel,
appliances, books, toys, computers, groceries, furniture/bedding,
tools/home improvement, home/garden, pet products, jewelry, medical
equipment/supplies, sporting goods, personal care products,
flowers/related gifts, non-prescription drug and office
supplies.
In April, 13 of the 18 categories tracked by the DPI saw YoY
price increases, with apparel rising the most. Price drops were
observed in five categories: electronics, jewelry, books, toys and
computers.
Eight of the 18 categories in the DPI saw price increases MoM.
Price drops were observed across 10 categories including
electronics, office supplies, jewelry, books, furniture/bedding,
toys, home/garden, flowers/related gifts, computers and
apparel.
Notable categories in the Adobe Digital Price Index for
April:
- Electronics: Prices were down 5.2% YoY (down 0.9% MoM).
This is the largest YoY drop for the category since November 2020
(In October 2020, prices were down 6.2% YoY). As the biggest
category in e-commerce by share of spend, price movements have an
outsized impact on overall inflation online.
- Computers: Prices were down 5.7% YoY (down 0.7% MoM).
This is the 16th consecutive month of deflation for the category,
after rising 2.9% YoY in December 2020. The price decrease is still
below historical levels, however, with computer prices dropping
9.2% YoY on average (from 2015 to 2019).
- Apparel: Prices were up 12.3% YoY (down 1.7% MoM). While
the category has now seen over a year of online inflation (13
months), there are signs that prices are beginning to ease. From
November 2021 to March 2022, prices increased by more than 15.7%
YoY each month, well above the 12.3% YoY in April.
- Groceries: Prices continued to surge and rose 10.3% YoY
(up 1.3% MoM), setting another new record on an annual basis. This
follows a 9.0% YoY increase in March, a 7.6% YoY increase in
February and a 5.8% YoY increase in January—all record highs.
Groceries remains the only category to move in lockstep with the
CPI on a long-term basis, with online prices rising now for 27
consecutive months.
- Pet Products: Prices were up 8.0% YoY (up 0.9% MoM), the
highest increase for the category YoY. Online inflation for pet
products has now been observed for two full years, with the
previous high point in September 2020 (up 7.8% YoY).
Methodology
The DPI is modeled after the Consumer Price Index (CPI),
published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and uses the
Fisher Price Index to track online prices. The Fisher Price Index
uses quantities of matched products purchased in the current period
(month) and a previous period (previous month) to calculate the
price changes by category. Adobe’s analysis is weighted by the real
quantities of the products purchased in the two adjacent
months.
Powered by Adobe Analytics, Adobe uses a combination of Adobe
Sensei, Adobe’s AI and machine learning framework, and manual
effort to segment the products into the categories defined by the
CPI manual. The methodology was first developed alongside renowned
economists Austan Goolsbee and Pete Klenow.
About Adobe
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For
more information, visit www.adobe.com.
© 2022 Adobe. All rights reserved. Adobe and the Adobe logo are
either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe in the United
States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the
property of their respective owners.
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Public relations contacts Kevin Fu Adobe kfu@adobe.com
Bassil Elkadi Adobe belkadi@adobe.com
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