MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Eurozone Flash PMI; UK Flash PMI; Germany Bundesbank monthly
report; results from Philips.
Opening Call:
European shares could fall at the open Monday, as U.S. stock
futures point for a higher open on Wall Street. Dollar rises
slightly. Treasury yields steady after a pull back on Friday. Oil
gains and gold remains unchanged.
Equities:
European stocks are set to start the week lower after a sell-off
on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index
wrap up their worst weeks since March 2020.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index wrapped up their
worst weeks since March 2020; the Nasdaq has fallen for four weeks
in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished its worst
weekly performance since October 2020.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock-index futures made solid gains Sunday,
following the worst week on Wall Street since March 2020.
The upcoming week will see a number of quarterly earnings
reports from big-name companies, including IBM, Microsoft, Tesla
and Apple. The Federal Reserve will also meet Tuesday and
Wednesday, where policy makers are expected to lay the groundwork
for raising interest rates, likely in March.
Up ahead surveys of purchasing managers in Europe and the U.S.
will be closely watched for fallout from the Omicron wave of
Covid-19 in the opening weeks of January. The indicators, some of
the first big data points for the month, should offer insight on
whether efforts to contain the variant as well its impact on worker
health are affecting demand, supply chains and prices-all key
gauges during the pandemic.
Investors have been growing increasingly worried about how
aggressively the Federal Reserve, which holds a policy meeting this
week, might act to cool rising inflation.
"The FOMC (Fed) meeting dominates the macro calendar this week
and is likely to keep risk sentiment on the hesitant side with an
end to QE and imminent rates hikes likely to be announced,"
economists Nicholas Mapa and Robert Carnell of ING said in a
commentary.
In Asia, shares were mostly lower.
Forex:
The dollar rose in Asia after ending last week a bit higher,
reversing some of its recent declines.
"But dollar strength has mostly been against G10 currencies,
said Capital Economics' Jonathan Petersen. "Despite a fall in US
equities last week, the 'riskier' emerging market (EM) currencies
have generally risen."
Petersen doubts this will last because he expects financial
conditions from rising US Treasury yields to put pressure on EM
currencies. "Indeed, we expect the Fed to signal a rate hike in
March and an accelerated pace of quantitative tightening when it
announces policy next Wednesday, which could prove the next
catalyst for a stronger greenback."
Asian currencies were mixed against USD in the morning Asian
session amid ongoing worries over Fed tightening.
Bitcoin prices slumped further over the weekend to levels not
seen since last August, as a selloff of riskier assets like stocks
spread to cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has now shed about 50% from its
record high in November.
Bitcoin fell as low as $34,042.78 Saturday, a drop of 7.2%,
before paring losses. The world's largest cryptocurrency by value
stabilized late Sunday, at one point back crawling back above the
$36,000 level.
Bonds:
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was steady Monday at 1.78%.
The Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate is currently in a
range of 0% to 0.25%. Investors now see a nearly 70% chance that
the Fed will raise the rate by at least one percentage point by the
end of the year, according to CME Group's Fed Watch tool.
Treasury yields remain up sharply in 2022, the selloff in
Treasurys that has driven yields sharply higher to begin the new
year took a pause on Friday. The move higher in yields has been
driven by signals the Fed will be much more aggressive than
previously expected in raising interest rates and otherwise
tightening monetary policy in response to persistently high
inflation.
The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is expected to lay
the groundwork for delivering a rate increase in March, with some
investors even penciling in the prospect of a half percentage point
rise in the fed-funds rate target rather than a quarter-point
increase.
Energy:
Oil rose in early Asian trading on signs of tight supply, with
OPEC under-producing oil by 747,000 barrels a day in December
compared with its own monthly target, ANZ said.
This brings the group's compliance rate to 120% in December, it
said. Demand is also high, defying earlier expectations that oil
consumption would waver due to high Omicron infection rates
globally, the bank added.
"Despite reaching record levels in many parts of the world,
infection rates haven't impacted demand for oil as much as the
market had been expected," ANZ said.
High natural gas prices could persist even after the peak winter
heating season ends in February, Goldman Sachs said. European gas
markets were in focus, the investment bank said; while storage
levels there look sufficient, "we estimate that a
one-standard-deviation colder-than-average Feb-Mar would lead
end-winter inventories below the record lows of 2018, with
electricity blackouts likely," Goldman said.
A wider, global economic impact is also probable, it said. Not
only is gas one of the most important commodities for winter
heating and power generation, but large swathes of industry rely on
the fuel for manufacturing.
Earnings of companies in energy-intensive sectors could also
take a hit, it said.
Metals:
Gold was little changed in early Asian trading, but rising real
yields on U.S. ten-year Treasuries could weigh on the precious
metal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said. U.S. yields are rising
due to expectations that the FOMC will raise Fed fund rates earlier
and faster than previously expected.
"Markets are pricing in around 4 rate hikes this year, implying
a target Fed Fund rates of 1.00%-1.25% by the beginning of next
year," CBA said. This may drag on prices of the
non-interest-bearing asset, it said.
The price of nickel fell in early Asian trade amid profit-taking
and as China's Lunar New Year holidays poses a near-term demand
risk, ANZ said.
However, the bank thinks that the price of the commodity could
remain supported due to dwindling inventories and supply
disruptions as major exporter Indonesia mulls a tax on the metal.
The three-month forward nickel contract on the LME fell 0.2%.
Iron ore was slightly lower in Asia morning trade, declining
after a strong upturn in the past week when sentiment was buoyed by
China's rate cut and industry data from Mysteel showing
lower-than-usual inventory.
Huatai Futures thinks the steel-making material's outlook in the
longer run seems promising, especially with the upcoming Lunar New
Year holidays in China, when steel producers are expected to
accelerate production, boosting demand for iron ore. The
most-traded benchmark May iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity
Exchange edges down 0.1%.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Economy Week Ahead: Fed, GDP, Consumer Spending
The Federal Reserve's policy meeting highlights a full week of
economic news.
Inflation Poses Risks of Faster, Less Predictable Fed Rate
Increases
The Federal Reserve is entering an unfamiliar environment at the
start of 2022. For the first time in decades, officials are
preparing to raise interest rates when inflation is uncomfortably
high rather than very low.
The last time the Fed lifted rates from near zero, at the end of
2015, inflation was running below its 2% target and the
unemployment rate-a measure of labor slack-was declining
gently.
Rising Interest Rates Hit Municipal-Bonds Market
Municipal bonds are off to their worst start since 2011.
The early-year bond rout has dragged returns on the S&P
Municipal Bond Index to minus 1.1% through Jan. 20, counting price
changes and interest payments. The loss is an early sign that
rising interest rates could make 2022 rockier than last year, when
federal stimulus and elevated demand from homebound savers led to
record low volatility and historically high prices.
U.S. Food Supply Is Under Pressure, From Plants to Store
Shelves
The U.S. food system is under renewed strain as Covid-19's
Omicron variant stretches workforces from processing plants to
grocery stores, leaving gaps on supermarket shelves.
In Arizona, one in 10 processing plant and distribution workers
at a major produce company were recently out sick. In
Massachusetts, employee illnesses have slowed the flow of fish to
supermarkets and restaurants. A grocery chain in the U.S. Southeast
had to hire temporary workers after roughly one-third of employees
at its distribution centers fell ill.
Tech Rout Fueled by Bond-Market Turn
Shifts within the bond market are removing a key pillar of
support for Wall Street's more speculative bets, dragging down
major stock indexes as investors flee everything from tech stocks
to cryptocurrencies.
Spooked in large part by rising bond yields, investors continued
to dump stocks last week, extending early-year losses that have
taken many off guard with their speed and severity. Once again,
tech shares were at the forefront. Selling also broadened to
include sectors such as banking and energy, sending the S&P 500
to its worst stretch of declines since the onset of the Covid-19
pandemic.
Republicans Focus on Effects, Not Causes, of Climate Change
MIAMI-Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis visited the coastal city of
Oldsmar recently to unveil projects including sea walls and
drainage systems intended to address flooding. The state is seeing
rising sea levels, and Florida's environmental and economic
successes are intertwined, Mr. DeSantis and other speakers
said.
The Republican governor, unlike many of his Democratic
counterparts, didn't use the term "climate change" or endorse
specific policies aimed at combating factors that most climate
scientists say are driving warming, such as greenhouse-gas
emissions. He focused on responding to the effects of a warming
climate.
Apple, Microsoft and Tesla Headline Key Earnings Week Amid
Nasdaq's Slide
Tech giants including Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc.
are among the companies headlining a busy earnings week that comes
as investors look for reassurance after the Nasdaq notched a 12%
decline to start the year.
Overall, about a fifth of the S&P 500 and nearly half of the
Dow Jones Industrial Average are expected to provide their
quarterly updates during the week starting Monday, according to
FactSet.
Activist Investor Nelson Peltz Buys Stake in Unilever
LONDON-Trian Fund Management LP, the activist hedge fund run by
Nelson Peltz, has acquired a stake in Unilever PLC, according to
people familiar with the matter, adding pressure to the packaged
food and consumer goods giant in the wake of its failed $68-billion
bid for GlaxoSmithKline PLC's consumer-health business.
The size of the stake couldn't be learned. Trian started buying
Unilever shares well before its bids for the GSK unit surfaced
earlier this month, one of the people said.
Empty Private Jet Flights Hastened Credit Suisse Chairman
António Horta-Osório's Downfall
After relocating to Zurich last spring to run Credit Suisse
Group AG as chairman, António Horta-Osório flew to London and
Lisbon for work meetings and business events, then spent time with
his family at homes there.
On multiple occasions, a private plane paid for by Credit Suisse
dropped him off on a Thursday and returned empty to Switzerland,
according to people familiar with the travel. By Monday, a plane
picked Mr. Horta-Osório up for work in Zurich.
State Department Tells Families of U.S. Diplomats in Ukraine to
Leave
The State Department instructed the families of U.S. diplomats
in Ukraine to leave the country and authorized some embassy staff
members to also depart, while the Biden administration considers
sending several thousand troops to Europe amid a Russian military
buildup.
The State Department decision, announced Sunday, comes as U.S.
officials have warned that an attack could come at any time.
Germany's Reliance on Russian Gas Limits Europe's Options in
Ukraine Crisis
BERLIN-Germany's dependence on Russian gas has left Europe short
of options to sanction Moscow if it invades Ukraine-and itself
vulnerable should Russia stop gas exports to the West.
A two-decade-old decision to phase out nuclear power and more
recent moves to cut reliance on coal in an effort to bring down CO2
emissions mean Germany is now more reliant on Russian gas than most
of its neighbors, not just for heating but also for power
generation.
Judge Rules Banks Must Stand Trial Over $7 Billion R. Allen
Stanford Fraud Claims
Toronto-Dominion Bank, HSBC Bank PLC and other banks linked to
convicted fraudster R. Allen Stanford must stand trial over claims
they supported his $7 billion Ponzi scheme and should repay
defrauded investors, a federal judge ruled.
Judge David Godbey of the U.S. District Court in Dallas on
Thursday denied a request by the banks to avoid trial in a lawsuit
brought on behalf of investors bilked by Mr. Stanford, citing
evidence the banks knew his operation wasn't on the level but still
did business with him.
U.S.-Backed Forces Struggle to Contain Islamic State in Battle
Over Syrian Prison
Syrian fighters backed by American airstrikes struggled to
retake control of a prison attacked by Islamic State in
northeastern Syria on Sunday, as the militant group's attempt to
replenish its ranks with freed prisoners sparked the area's worst
sustained fighting in years.
The prison attack, which began last week, was one of the most
complex and brazen Islamic State operations in Syria and Iraq in
the past three years. It involved sleeper cells, suicide bombers
and an insurrection inside the prison, said the Syrian Democratic
Forces, the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led militia that controls a
section of northeastern Syria that is autonomous from the regime in
Damascus.
Activist Investor to Call on Peloton to Fire Its CEO
An activist investor wants Peloton Interactive Inc. to fire its
chief executive and explore a sale after the stationary-bike
maker's stock plummeted more than 80% from its high, as growth
slowed.
Blackwells Capital LLC has a significant stake of less than 5%
in Peloton and is preparing to push the company's board to fire CEO
John Foley and pursue a sale, according to people familiar with the
matter. The firm believes Peloton could be an attractive
acquisition target for larger technology or fitness-oriented
companies, the people said.
China Evergrande Shares Jump After Appointing China Cinda
Executive
Shares of China Evergrande Group soared on Monday after it
appointed an executive at the state-owned China Cinda Asset
Management Co. to its board, a sign that the struggling developer
is making some progress toward resolving its liquidity crisis.
The Hong Kong-listed stock gained as much as 13% within a few
hours of trading, and was last up 5.6% at HK$1.89. The shares are
88% lower from a year ago.
Kohl's Can't Find Relief From Investor Pressure
Since taking the helm of Kohl's Corp. in May 2018, Chief
Executive Michelle Gass has forged partnerships with Amazon.com
Inc. and Sephora, brought in new brands and beefed up its loyalty
program. Yet, the retailer's stock is worth less today than it was
two decades ago.
On Friday, a group backed by activist hedge fund Starboard Value
LP offered roughly $9 billion to buy the department store chain,
The Wall Street Journal reported, following a renewed push by a
different activist to shake up its board and consider a sale.
Software Provider Globalization Partners Gets Vista Equity
Backing at $4.2 Billion Valuation
Globalization Partners, a software provider that helps
businesses streamline the process of hiring employees
internationally, has landed new backing from Vista Equity Partners
that values the company at $4.2 billion.
Boston-based Globalization Partners helps businesses outsource
tasks associated with hiring people abroad, including tax, legal,
accounting and administrative duties, through artificial
intelligence-powered software. The company said it experienced a
boom in business due partly to the movement of global workforces
throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.
Winter Olympics Sponsors Caught Between Beijing, U.S.
With less than two weeks to go before the start of the Winter
Games in Beijing, several Olympics sponsors are skipping what is
usually an Olympics-themed advertising blitz.
In 2018, Visa Inc. revved up its Olympic marketing campaign
months before the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. It
marked the 100-day countdown to the torch lighting on Twitter. It
highlighted its Team Visa athletes, and it promoted wearable
payment devices used at the event.
Write to sarka.halas@wsj.com
Expected Major Events for Monday
06:00/FIN: Dec PPI
08:00/CZE: Jan Business cycle survey (consumer/business
confidence)
08:15/FRA: Jan France Flash PMI
08:30/GER: Jan Germany Flash PMI
09:00/ICE: Dec Harmonized CPI
09:00/POL: Dec Retail Sales
09:00/EU: Jan Eurozone Flash PMI
09:30/UK: Jan Flash UK PMI
10:00/MLT: Dec RPI
15:00/DEN: Dec Central Government Finance & Debt
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 24, 2022 00:47 ET (05:47 GMT)
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