Good day. U.S. consumer spending was strong during the fall but
it was held back by low inventories, the Federal Reserve said
Wednesday in its Beige Book report. That left the U.S. economy
growing at a "modest to moderate" pace, according to the periodic
collection of business anecdotes from around the country. It also
noted that businesses throughout the U.S. reported rising input
costs and said they were passing them on to customers, and that
most firms expect supply-chain disruptions to persist into next
year, causing prices to continue to rise. Elsewhere, Turkey's
central bank moved Wednesday to prop up the free-falling lira,
selling foreign reserves after protests erupted in recent days.
Economic pressures have been mounting for ordinary Turkish people,
who are struggling with rising prices of food, fuel, medicine and
other essential goods.
Now on to today's news and analysis.
Top News
Supply Imbalances Continued Holding Back Growth, Beige Book
Says
The U.S. economy grew at a "modest to moderate" pace this fall,
with supply-chain issues and labor shortages holding back growth
despite strong demand, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
The Fed report, a periodic collection of business anecdotes from
around the country known as the Beige Book, found that consumer
spending throughout the U.S. was strong but held back by low
inventories. Strong demand allowed firms to raise prices with
"little pushback" from consumers, and increases were widespread
throughout the economy.
Bond Investors Bet on Low Peak Interest Rates
U.S. government-bond yields have climbed a lot this year, writes
The Wall Street Journal's Sam Goldfarb. Some analysts are concerned
that they haven't risen even further. The reason is that the world
has moved closer with each passing month to the day when investors
think that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark
federal-funds rate above its current level near zero.
Derby's Take:
By Michael S. Derby
The performance of the Treasury bond market over recent weeks is
again suggesting that the idea of a clear link between the central
bank's asset buying and the movement of yields remains tenuous. In
the time the Fed has employed bond purchases to bolster the
economy, an unorthodox strategy during the financial crisis and its
aftermath now elevated to a normal part of the monetary-policy
toolkit, economists have struggled to measure what the central bank
gets for its buying.
U.S. Economy
Yellen Defends Spending Plans Amid Angst Over Higher
Inflation
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday defended Democrats'
efforts to pass a roughly $2 trillion social-spending package, amid
Republicans' criticisms that fiscal policy implemented earlier this
year overstimulated the economy and fueled higher inflation.
Is Inflation Sticking Around? Bicycle Makers Offer Some
Clues
Government Shutdown Deadline Nears as Deal Eludes Lawmakers
Lawmakers worked Wednesday to reach an agreement on a short-term
spending patch to avoid a potential partial government shutdown
this weekend, with Democrats and Republicans still haggling over
the details of the funding extension.
Low Initial Jobless Claims Reflect Tight Labor Market
The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits
is expected to have remained near pandemic lows last week as
employers continued to hold on to their workers in a tight labor
market.
Key Developments Around the World
Turkish Central Bank Props Up Collapsing Lira
Turkey's central bank moved Wednesday to prop up the country's
collapsing currency, selling foreign reserves after the lira
reached new lows following comments by President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan in defense of his economic policies.
The Turkish lira fell again this morning after President Erdogan
replaced finance minister Lutfi Elvan following reported clashes
over Mr. Erdogan's unorthodox view that high interest rates stoke
inflation.
Bank of Mexico Cuts Economic Growth Forecast for 2021
The Bank of Mexico lowered its forecast for economic growth in
2021 to 5.4% from 6.2% previously, citing an unexpected contraction
of 0.4% in the third quarter from the second quarter that
interrupted the country's recovery after four consecutive periods
of growth.
China's Digital Currency Challenge: Winning Hearts and Minds
China has convinced financial policy makers everywhere of its
resolve to create a digital version of its currency, even helping
to spur the Federal Reserve to study developing an electronic
version of the dollar.
Financial Regulation Roundup
Capital One Is Latest Bank to Ditch Overdraft Fees
Capital One Financial Corp. said it will stop charging customers
overdraft fees, making it one of the largest banks to do so. For
years, politicians and consumer advocates have said the fees
disproportionately affect Black families and those with low and
moderate incomes.
Big Tech's Liability Shield Is Under Siege
House lawmakers are moving ahead with legislation that would
make internet platforms more accountable to online users by scaling
back sweeping legal protections technology companies have enjoyed
since the 1990s, posing a major challenge to Big Tech in the coming
year.
Forward Guidance
Thursday (all times ET)
9 a.m.: European Central Bank's Panetta chairs panel at ECB
conference on fiscal policy and Economic and Monetary Union
governance
11 a.m.: Fed's Quarles gives speech on his departing thoughts at
American Enterprise Institute event
11:30 a.m.: Richmond Fed's Barkin, San Francisco Fed's Daly
speak on the labor market at Peterson Institute for International
Economics event; Atlanta Fed's Bostic speaks in live interview at
Reuters Next event
Friday
3:30 a.m.: European Central Bank's Lagarde speaks in online
Q&A at Reuters Next event
6 a.m.: Bank of England's Saunders gives speech at BOE event on
the outlook for inflation and monetary policy
8 a.m.: European Central Bank's Lane chairs lecture by Ricardo
Reis, London School of Economics, at ECB conference on fiscal
policy and Economic and Monetary Union governance
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Labor Department releases November jobs
report
9:15 a.m.: St. Louis Fed's Bullard speaks on economy and
monetary policy at Missouri Bankers Association conference
Research
Barclays Games Out Impact of Fed Rate Rise on Money Market
Barclays now believes the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates three times in 2022 and slow the pace of its asset buying
faster than the central bank currently plans. Barclays also expects
that even as the Fed raises rates, money markets will remain
flooded with cash, which could blunt the impact of a policy shift
by the central bank. "With reserves balances over $4 trillion and
nearly $1.5 trillion in the [Fed's reverse repo facility,] we
expect it will be difficult for short-term interest rates to trade
much above the interest rate floor," Barclays Managing Director
Joseph Abate wrote in a note to clients.
-- Michael S. Derby
Commentary
Omicron Could Widen Blue-Red Economic Divide
The conventional wisdom at the start of the pandemic was that
there was no trade-off between lives and livelihoods, and while
that might have been true in some countries, in the U.S. infections
and economic activity appear to be inversely related, Greg Ip
writes.
Manufacturers' Reprieve Could Be Ruined by Omicron -- or Not
American manufacturers' supply-chain problems began to ease last
month, but now manufacturers face the risk that the Omicron variant
of Covid-19 could quickly turn that into old news, Justin Lahart
writes.
Omicron Potentially a Stabilizing Force for OPEC+
With member states' balance sheets and geopolitical interests
often pulling it in different directions, OPEC+ can be one unwieldy
ship for Saudi Arabia to maneuver. Ironically, the Omicron variant
could prove to be a stabilizing force, Jinjoo Lee writes.
Basis Points
U.S. factory activity grew robustly in November, albeit at the
slowest pace in 11 months as labor and supply bottlenecks continued
to hit production, according to a survey of purchasing managers.
The IHS Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Business Activity PMI stood
at 58.3 in November, marginally down from 58.4 in October, and
below the preliminary estimate of 59.1. (Dow Jones Newswires)
Hiring by U.S. private-sector employers kept a robust pace in
November, with nonfarm private employment up by 534,000, data from
ADP National Employment Report showed Wednesday, beating the
506,000 rise forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street
Journal. The number of jobs added in October was slightly revised
to 570,000. (DJN)
Construction spending in the U.S. increased 0.2% in October
compared with September, data from the Commerce Department showed,
broadly in line with economists' expectations. Residential
construction fell 0.5% on month, with outlays on construction of
new single-family homes down 0.8% from September. (DJN)
Canadian building permits climbed in October, on the strength of
intentions to build hospitals, renovate office space and expand
airport facilities. The total value of building permits rose 1.3%
on a month-over-month basis to a seasonally adjusted 10.29 billion
Canadian dollars, or the equivalent of $8.05 billion, Statistics
Canada said. (DJN)
The Caixin China purchasing managers index dropped to 49.9 from
50.6 in October, indicating that overall business conditions faced
by Chinese manufacturers were broadly unchanged, according to data
released Wednesday by Caixin Media Co. and researcher Markit. A
reading below 50 indicates contraction of activity, while a result
above 50 means an expansion. (DJN)
U.K. retail prices rose year-on-year in November for the first
time in two and a half years, with prices set to continue rising
over the Christmas period, according to the latest report by
Nielsen and the British Retail Consortium. Overall, prices in
British stores rose 0.3% in the month compared with a decline of
0.4% in October, the report said. (DJN)
U.K. national average house prices are set to climb by 5% on
average in 2022 amid strong buyer demand and a historically low
available amount of property, according to new data from property
portal Rightmove PLC. (DJN)
Mexican business, labor and government representatives agreed to
raise the daily minimum wage by 22% in 2022 to 260 pesos ($12) on
the northern border and 173 pesos ($8) in the rest of the country,
the private-sector organization CCE said. The increase includes 9%
to cover inflation, which is currently around 7%, and an additional
amount aimed at recouping the purchasing power of the minimum wage.
(DJN)
South Korea's headline inflation accelerated in November to a
decade high, remaining above the central bank's annual 2% target
for an eighth consecutive month. The benchmark consumer-price index
gained 3.7% from a year earlier following October's 3.2% rise, the
statistical office said. (DJN)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 02, 2021 09:12 ET (14:12 GMT)
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