MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Flash Estimate euro area inflation; BOE's Mann speaks; updates
from easyJet, SAS.
Opening Call:
European stocks to drop at open after Moderna CEO casts
uncertainty on vaccine efficacy against new variant. U.S. futures
fall. The dollar strengthens against the euro and the yen. Oil rose
and gold inched higher.
Equities:
European stocks are set to open sharply lower as Moderna CEO
said existing vaccines will 'struggle' against the Omicron
coronavirus variant.
Early futures indicated a positive open and stocks in Asia were
trading broadly higher, but fragile investor confidence was dented
after the article appeared in the Financial Times early Tuesday.
European and U.S. stock futures dropped after the comments.
"This cautious positivity soon gave way to pessimism in late
Asia trading on comments from the Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel to
the FT, who predicted existing vaccines would struggle with the
Omicron variant and who warned it would take months for
pharmaceutical companies to manufacture enough jabs at a sufficient
scale to make a difference," said Michael Hewson at CMC
Markets.
"His tone contrasts with the likes of Pfizer and BioNTech was
suggested any new vaccine would be able to modified fairly quickly.
His rather candid comments have also seen oil prices slide back
sharply, as an increasingly jittery market react with concern to
the prospects of further restrictions and lower demand," said
Hewson.
President Biden said Monday that Omicron was "not a cause for
panic." The administration is working with drug companies to
develop contingency plans for vaccines or boosters in case they are
needed to fight the new variant, he said. Some analysts expect the
economic impact of Omicron to be limited as vaccine manufacturers
update their shots to combat it.
"There's less likelihood we see sustained downside from
something like a variant because our ability to adapt to it is
higher than it was," said Hani Redha, a portfolio manager at
PineBridge Investments. "The ability to tailor vaccines makes a
huge difference."
Some analysts think a serious economic downturn, like what
happened last year, will likely be averted because more people have
been vaccinated. But they also think a return to pre-pandemic
levels of economic activity has been dramatically delayed,
especially in sectors such as tourism. Consumption may also be
hurt.
Forex:
The dollar strengthened against the euro and against the yen.
"Currency traders spent Black Friday trying to get out of the
store" as news of the Omicron variant triggered a flight from risk,
Cambridge Global Payments' Karl Schamotta said.
This echoed "a pattern seen when the pandemic hit last year, the
dollar dropped precipitously as traders unwound bets on US rate
hikes, while a wipeout in carry trades boosted the euro and
yen."
But a dollar recovery could be in the offing, the chief market
strategist said. "Whether overall risk appetite continues to
improve or last week's flight to safety resumes, the greenback
seems well-positioned for outperformance against the yen and the
euro," with Friday's carry trade unwind appearing to have
faded.
USD/JPY recovered modestly as the global market rout driven by
concerns about the Omicron variant eases. Further gains by the pair
may rest on strength of the U.S. economic recovery and crude oil
movements.
The emerging Covid-19 variant has triggered travel restrictions
in some parts of the world and has cast a cloud over the Fed's path
to tightening. Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to appear before
the Senate Banking Committee later in the day. Powell said in
prepared remarks that the Omicron variant risks intensifying
supply-chain disruptions that have fueled a surge in inflation.
The Norwegian krone should appreciate moderately versus the euro
in 2022 as the Norges Bank raises interest rates further and the
European Central Bank maintains its loose policies, Commerzbank
said.
"This is unlikely to change until 2023, when the market will
gradually price in that the ECB will also start to slowly raise its
key rate in the second half of 2023," Commerzbank currency analyst
Antje Praefcke said.
The Norges Bank has signalled it will take its policy rate to
1.0% by the end of 2022 and to 1.7% by the end of 2024, versus
0.25% at present, she said. Commerzbank expects EUR/NOK to fall to
9.65 by December 2022, from 10.1862 currently, before rising to
9.80 by December 2023.
Bonds:
Treasurys sold off and yields bounced back from the Omicron
turmoil, with the 10-year rising to 1.542% from 1.484% Friday.
Investors digested news about the new variant and came back a
little calmer after the weekend.
"Omicron is unlikely to change the Fed's pathway," AmeriVet's
Gregory Faranello said. "Potentially new vaccines if needed: this
country has vaccine fatigue already. Won't make a difference."
Energy:
Oil rose in early Asia trade as jitters caused by the Omicron
variant of Covid-19 have started to ease. However, as uncertainty
remains about the level of danger, OPEC has delayed its technical
meeting to give it more time to assess the situation.
Aside from updates on the Omicron variant, ANZ expects traders
to also focus on talks to potentially revive the U.S.-Iran nuclear
deal.
Metals:
Gold inched higher in early Asian trade. Traders are likely
watching for the timing of an expected rate increase by the Fed,
and signs that it will start to taper off asset purchases more
quickly than expected, Oanda said.
Aluminum led gains in base metals in Asian trade after a recent
selloff, as investors' fears over the likely impact of the Omicron
Covid-19 variant on demand eased, said ANZ Research.
However, the rebound in base metals is being stymied by the
current economic backdrop, the research firm said. Demand from
China, which maintains Covid-zero containment measures, remains a
concern due to potential shutdowns and restrictions, ANZ said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
New Omicron Variant Exacerbates Inflation Uncertainty, Powell
Says
The new Omicron coronavirus variant risks intensifying
supply-chain disruptions that have fueled a surge in inflation this
year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in testimony
released Monday afternoon.
Mr. Powell is set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee
alongside Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday morning.
China Manufacturing Gauge Shows Rebound in November
BEIJING-An official gauge of China's manufacturing unexpectedly
rebounded to expansion in November, ending a two-month contraction
resulting from a power crunch.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to
50.1 in November from October's 49.2, the National Bureau of
Statistics said Tuesday.
Oil Prices Stabilize After Omicron-Driven Friday Selloff
Oil prices stabilized on Monday, clawing back some of their
losses after a new variant of the coronavirus fueled crude's worst
trading session since April 2020.
U.S. crude ended the day up 2.6% at $69.95 a barrel after
previously rising as much as 6.9%, rebounding alongside stocks and
other commodities following a Friday selloff driven by the new
Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Oil fell 13% on Friday but is
still up about 45% for the year.
Cyber Monday Sales Flat as Smaller Savings Curb Incentive to
Spend
U.S. online sales were flat throughout Cyber Monday, as smaller
discounts gave shoppers less incentive to spend, but analysts say
sales could finish slightly higher than last year by the time West
Coast shoppers finish for the night.
Shoppers spent $7.1 billion online as of 9 p.m. eastern time in
the U.S., according to transaction data compiled by the Adobe
Digital Economy Index. Shoppers are expected to spend between $10.4
billion and $11.1 billion on Cyber Monday, Adobe said. American
consumers spent $10.8 billion online last year.
FTC Asks Amazon, Walmart for Information About Supply-Chain
Issues
The Federal Trade Commission is seeking information from
Amazon.com Inc., Procter & Gamble Co., Walmart Inc. and others
about how they are handling supply-chain snarls, part of a study
into whether the problems have led to anticompetitive behavior and
higher prices.
The document request isn't part of any law-enforcement action,
the FTC said in a press release. Instead, the agency said it is
looking to understand the reasons behind the widespread
supply-chain problems that have crimped economic growth.
CDC Says Everyone 18 and Older Should Get Covid-19 Booster Due
to Omicron Variant
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention strengthened its
Covid-19 booster-shot recommendations, reflecting the potential
threat the new Omicron variant poses to the pandemic response in
the U.S. and world-wide.
The CDC on Monday recommended that everyone 18 and older get an
additional shot after completing a first course of Covid-19
vaccination. The agency earlier this month encouraged boosters only
for those 50 and above, adding that people ages 18 and above could
get an additional dose.
Turkey's Lira Crisis Exposes Reliance on Imported Energy
Turkey's currency crisis has exposed a key weakness in its
economy: a near total dependence on imported energy to keep
households warm and factories humming.
Turkey is surrounded by some of the world's richest reserves of
fossil fuels, in the Middle East and Central Asia, but produces
little oil, gas or coal of its own. The country imports 93% of the
oil and 99% of the gas it consumes, a vulnerability when energy
prices in dollars climb and the lira slides.
FDA Moving to Authorize Pfizer-BioNTech Booster for 16-,
17-Year-Olds
The Food and Drug Administration could authorize Covid-19
boosters from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE for use in 16- and
17-year olds as soon as next week as concerns rise over a new,
possibly more transmissible variant, according to a person familiar
with the planning.
The agency is planning to move rapidly to take action on a
request by the companies to authorize boosters for 16- and-17 year
olds, according to a person familiar with the matter. So far, only
people 18 years and older are eligible for boosters.
Iran Doubles Down on Demands as Nuclear Talks Resume
VIENNA-Iran made many demands as it resumed talks Monday with
the U.S. and other world powers aimed at salvaging the 2015 nuclear
deal, doubling down on its position before negotiations first
started in the spring and raising doubts over an early
breakthrough.
The talks, taking place in the Austrian capital amid a strict
coronavirus lockdown, are intended to agree on the steps Iran and
the U.S. will take to return into compliance with the 2015 deal,
which lifted most international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for
strict but temporary restrictions on Iran's nuclear work.
Omicron Variant Drives Rise in Covid-19 Hospitalizations in
South Africa Hot Spot
JOHANNESBURG-The emergence of the Omicron variant of the
coronavirus in South Africa has driven a sharp increase in Covid-19
hospitalizations in the country's hot-spot province over the past
two weeks, although fewer patients are being treated for severe
disease than in previous surges, the country's National Institute
for Communicable Diseases said.
There has also been an unusually high number of hospitalizations
of children under 2 years old around the capital, Pretoria, where
cases started rising first, although some of these may be
precautionary, the institute said.
Turkey's Lira Crisis Exposes Reliance on Imported Energy
Turkey's currency crisis has exposed a key weakness in its
economy: a near total dependence on imported energy to keep
households warm and factories humming.
Turkey is surrounded by some of the world's richest reserves of
fossil fuels, in the Middle East and Central Asia, but produces
little oil, gas or coal of its own. The country imports 93% of the
oil and 99% of the gas it consumes, a vulnerability when energy
prices in dollars climb and the lira slides.
FDA Moving to Authorize Pfizer-BioNTech Booster for 16-,
17-Year-Olds
The Food and Drug Administration could authorize Covid-19
boosters from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE for use in 16- and
17-year olds as soon as next week as concerns rise over a new,
possibly more transmissible variant, according to a person familiar
with the planning.
The agency is planning to move rapidly to take action on a
request by the companies to authorize boosters for 16- and-17 year
olds, according to a person familiar with the matter. So far, only
people 18 years and older are eligible for boosters.
Manulife Banks Nearly $4.7 Billion for Second Infrastructure
Investment Fund
Manulife Investment Management has raised $4.65 billion to
invest in infrastructure, a sector where investors' hopes have been
sparked by the transition to renewable energy and the possibility
of increased U.S. government spending.
Lululemon Hits Back at Peloton, Sues Over Allegedly Copied
Designs
Lululemon and Peloton used to make workout clothes together.
Now, they're locked in a legal battle.
The first lawsuit came last week, when Peloton Interactive Inc.
pre-emptively sued Lululemon Athletica Inc. in the Southern
District of New York, asking a federal court to declare that it
didn't infringe on Lululemon's designs.
FTC Asks Amazon, Walmart for Information About Supply-Chain
Issues
The Federal Trade Commission is seeking information from
Amazon.com Inc., Procter & Gamble Co., Walmart Inc. and others
about how they are handling supply-chain snarls, part of a study
into whether the problems have led to anticompetitive behavior and
higher prices.
The document request isn't part of any law-enforcement action,
the FTC said in a press release. Instead, the agency said it is
looking to understand the reasons behind the widespread
supply-chain problems that have crimped economic growth.
Microsoft's Satya Nadella Sells Half of His Shares in the
Company
Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Satya Nadella sold about half of
his shares in the company last week, according to a federal
securities filing.
In the filing last week with the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission, the Redmond, Wash.-based software company reported Mr.
Nadella sold 838,584 shares over two days, down from close to 1.7
million shares.
Write to sarka.halas@wsj.com
Expected Major Events for Tuesday
00:01/UK: CBI Service Sector Survey
05:30/NED: Oct PPI
05:30/NED: Oct Retail turnover
06:00/FIN: 3Q GDP
07:00/NOR: 3Q Credit Indicator C3
07:00/NOR: Oct Credit Indicator C2
07:00/DEN: Oct Unemployment
07:00/DEN: 3Q Preliminary GDP
07:00/TUR: 3Q GDP
07:45/FRA: Oct Housing starts
07:45/FRA: Oct Household consumption expenditure in manufactured
goods
07:45/FRA: Oct PPI
07:45/FRA: Nov Provisional CPI
07:45/FRA: 3Q GDP - detailed figures
08:00/SPN: Oct Retail Sales
08:00/SWI: Nov KOF economic barometer
08:00/CZE: 3Q GDP
08:55/GER: Nov Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)
09:00/GER: Nov Brandenburg CPI
09:00/BUL: Oct PPI
09:00/POL: 3Q GDP
09:00/ICE: 3Q GDP
09:00/ITA: 3Q GDP
10:00/MLT: Oct PPI
10:00/CRO: Oct Industrial Production Volume Index
10:00/CYP: Oct PPI
10:00/GRE: Oct PPI
10:00/GRE: Sep Turnover Index in Retail Trade
10:00/ITA: Nov Provisional CPI
10:00/ITA: Nov Cities CPI
10:00/LUX: Oct PPI
10:00/CRO: Oct Retail trade
10:00/EU: Nov Flash Estimate euro area inflation
11:00/POR: Oct Retail trade
11:00/POR: 3Q GDP
11:00/POR: Oct Industrial production index
14:00/BEL: 3Q Final GDP
16:59/SPN: Sep Monthly Balance of Payments
16:59/BEL: Oct PPI
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 30, 2021 02:01 ET (07:01 GMT)
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