MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
U.S. Retail Sales for August; U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims; Canada
Housing Starts for August.
Opening Call:
Stock futures shrugged off another day of losses in China and
Hong Kong Thursday, where indexes were hit by gathering fears
around an economic slowdown and debt problems with giant property
developer China Evergrande Group.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's Shanghai Composite both
contracted. Growth across a range of Chinese economic indicators
pulled back sharply in August, as a new outbreak of the Covid-19
Delta variant and tighter government regulations on the property
market hit consumer spending and the housing sector.
Investors were also worried that problems at Evergrande, one of
China's largest residential developers, could upend the country's
real-estate sector, which makes up a large part of economic
spending and household wealth.
"Evergrande has brought forward that there are so many
vulnerabilities in the China system and it's hard to know where the
Chinese government steps in," said Seema Shah, chief strategist at
Principal Global Investors. "There is that just weighing on
confidence."
Retail sales, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to fall in
August. Supply-chain issues are hindering auto production and
crimping sales, while resurgent Covid-19 is denting consumer
confidence and possibly purchases at stores, restaurants and
online.
Investors will also get fresh figures on the number of Americans
who applied for first-time unemployment benefits in the week ended
Sept. 11. Filings for jobless benefits reached a pandemic low at
the start of September, but economists surveyed by The Wall Street
Journal expect claims could tick higher in the most recent
data.
"Markets, particularly in the U.S., are cherry-picking news
headlines and tier-two data to fit the narrative of flip-flopping
daily sentiment, " said Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at broker
Oanda.
Halley said he expects to see Wall Street's Wednesday surge
reversed if U.S. retail sales print lower than -0.8%, but investors
could equally ignore those data and focus on the Philadelphia Fed
manufacturing survey or initial jobless claims.
"Hopefully, next week's cast of ...central bank policy
decisions, starting with the Federal Reserve, delivers more
thematic clarity," Halley added.
Forex:
U.S. retail sales for August are expected to be weak, with the
consensus in a WSJ poll calling for a 0.8% on-month decline, which
could cause the dollar to fall, UniCredit said. The impact will
likely be limited, however, as major currencies remain stuck in
tight ranges.
UniCredit expects a 1.0% monthly fall in retail sales which it
says in theory could "prove sharply USD negative" but in practice
the dollar might not fall too far.
Aggressive EUR/USD buying is unlikely given the euro has failed
to rise above $1.1850 in recent days, while the DXY dollar index is
"flipping around 92.50," it said.
Bonds:
In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked
up to 1.309% Thursday from 1.302% Wednesday.
U.S. Treasurys could gain if retail sales data show another drop
in spending, said UniCredit.
After a move higher in global inflation expectations drove
Treasury yields higher and bond prices lower Wednesday, another
fall in retail sales driven partly by the spread of the Delta
variant could trigger some risk-off sentiment and lift Treasury
bond prices, analysts at the bank said.
Gains could be even higher if the data undershoots
expectations.
Pictet Asset Management said it remains neutral on U.S.
Treasurys, saying that 10-year U.S. yields appear too low at
current levels of around 1.30%.
The current market levels are a good 40 basis points below what
Pictet AM's own models suggest as a long-term fair value. That
said, the asset manager said it doesn't foresee a disruptive rise
in yields.
Commodities:
Oil prices held steady a day after rallying to their highest
level since mid-July on a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S.
crude oil stocks. U.S. crude inventories fell by 6.4 million
barrels last week to 417.4 million barrels.
Stockpiles are being drawn down while refiners in the Gulf of
Mexico continue to recover from Hurricane Ida. "Hurricane Ida is
limiting any material increase in supply from the U.S.," said Helge
Andre Martinsen at DNB Markets.
"Demand is reviving in China, while easing restrictions in other
countries are keeping oil demand prospects strong," he said.
Gold was slightly lower as investors weigh the rise in Treasury
yields, which is sapping appetite for the precious metal, ANZ
said.
"Subdued inflation expectations have been a headwind, with our
gold valuation model still suggesting it is undervalued, driven by
expectations that the spike in inflation will transitory," it
said.
Oanda thinks support for gold remains at $1,780.00. If it
breaches that level then Oanda expects deeper losses to
$1,750.00.
Base metals prices slipped after China says it has new plans to
release metals from state reserves. Three-month copper on the LME
fell 1.7% to $9,442 a metric ton while aluminum dropped 0.8% to
$2,867 a ton and nickel slumped 2.7% to $19,400 a ton.
Unhappy about high prices for the metals on which its economy
depends, China has auctioned off some of its metals stockpiles in
an attempt to cool the market.
China's National Development and Reform Commission said Thursday
that it planned to continue releasing stocks of copper, aluminum,
and zinc in order to bring prices down. "Currently, copper,
aluminum, and zinc prices are still high," a Chinese official said,
according to Reuters.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Microsoft Plans $60 Billion Share-Buyback Program, Raises
Dividend
Microsoft Corp.'s board approved a plan to buy back as much as
$60 billion of its stock, extending the tech giant's extensive
repurchase program at a time when Congressional Democrats have
proposed taxing companies that do buybacks.
Microsoft didn't provide a timetable for the repurchases. It
said Tuesday the program doesn't have an expiration date and could
be terminated any time.
Read More ->
Evergrande's Woes Fuel Selloff in Chinese Property Shares
A selloff in Chinese property stocks intensified Thursday, as
concern mounted about the effects of an official campaign to rein
in the sector that has already sparked turmoil at China Evergrande
Group.
The Lippo Select HK & Mainland Property Index dropped 4.9%,
closing at its lowest level in more than four years, FactSet data
showed. The drawdown in property shares helped pull Hong Kong's
flagship Hang Seng Index down about 1.5% to 24667.85, the
benchmark's lowest closing value of 2021.
Read More ->
Prenetics, a Covid-19 Testing Startup, to Go Public in SPAC
Merger
Hong Kong-based Prenetics Group Ltd. is going public on the
Nasdaq Stock Market via a special-purpose acquisition company, in a
deal that values the medical diagnostic startup at $1.25
billion.
Prenetics, whose revenue has surged during the coronavirus
pandemic, will merge with Artisan Acquisition Corp., a blank-check
company founded by Adrian Cheng, grandson of the late Hong Kong
real estate and jewelry magnateCheng Yu-tung. The younger Mr. Cheng
invested in Prenetics last year and held a 0.8% stake in the
startup before the latest deal.
Read More ->
Elon Musk's SpaceX Launches First All-Civilian Flight to
Orbit
Elon Musk's SpaceX on Wednesday evening launched four civilians
toward the deepest orbit Americans have traveled to in more than a
decade, in another milestone flight for private space travel.
A Falcon 9 rocket with a Crew Dragon space capsule on top lifted
off with a fiery plume from a pad at Kennedy Space Center in
Florida just after 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, according to a
live stream of the takeoff.
Read More ->
Amazon Is Doing It. So Is Walmart. Why Retail Loves 'Buy Now,
Pay Later.'
Alexis Luedtke got her first "buy now, pay later" plan in 2019
after she was rejected for a credit card. She has used at least
five more since to buy face cream, T-shirts and birthday gifts.
Installment plans are back in style. PayPal Holdings Inc. last
week said it was buying Japanese installment payment startup Paidy
Inc., following Square Inc.'s $29 billion deal for Afterpay Ltd.
Macy's Inc. and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. have added the option at
checkout over the past year. Even Amazon.com Inc. is doing it.
Read More ->
Taiwan Battery-Swapping Pioneer Gogoro to Go Public in SPAC
Merger
Taiwan's Gogoro Inc. will go public in the U.S. via a SPAC
merger with Poema Global Holdings Corp. that values the
battery-swapping pioneer at $2.35 billion.
The Taipei-based company said Thursday it plans to list on the
Nasdaq Stock Market through a merger with special-purpose
acquisition vehicle Poema, giving it fresh funds as it moves to
expand into China and India.
Read More ->
Investment Firm Lexington Partners Explores Sale
Investment firm Lexington Partners LP is exploring a sale of its
business, part of an increasingly popular niche of the red-hot
private-equity industry, according to people familiar with the
matter.
Closely held Lexington, which specializes in buying secondhand
stakes in private-equity funds, has hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
to advise on a potential sale, which could value the firm at a few
billion dollars, some of the people said.
Read More ->
U.S. Retail Sales Likely Took a Hit From Delta Variant
Product shortages and the Delta variant are preventing many
Americans from spending at retailers, restraining the economic
recovery.
U.S. retail sales likely fell for the second straight month in
August, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street
Journal. The Commerce Department will release official figures at
8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
Read More ->
Rising Shipping Costs Are Companies' Latest Inflation Riddle
Transportation costs-typically a fraction of a finished
product's price-are emerging as another supply-chain hurdle,
overwhelming some companies already paying more for raw materials
and labor.
The fabric and crafts retailer Jo-Ann Stores LLC said it has
spent 10 times more than its historical cost in some cases to move
products from one point to another.
Read More ->
Jobless Claims Likely Remained Near Pandemic Low Last Week
Jobless claims likely held near a pandemic low last week, as
layoffs ease despite a rise in coronavirus cases tied to the Delta
variant.
Economists expect a Labor Department report on Thursday to show
initial unemployment claims rose slightly to 320,000 last week from
a pandemic low of 310,000 a week earlier. Delayed filings following
Hurricane Ida, which hit Louisiana at the end of August, could have
contributed to a small increase last week, some economists say.
Read More ->
Elizabeth Warren Calls On Fed Banks to Bar Leaders From Stock
Trading
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) is calling on regional Federal
Reserve Banks to set rules that would prevent their leaders from
trading individual stocks, following recent disclosures that the
chiefs of the Boston and Dallas banks actively traded stocks and
other investments last year.
"The controversy over asset trading by high-level Fed personnel
highlights why it is necessary to ban ownership and trading of
individual stocks by senior officials who are supposed to serve the
public interest," Ms. Warren wrote in letters addressed to the
leaders of the 12 regional Fed banks.
Read More ->
FTC Moves Toward Stricter Antitrust Scrutiny of Vertical
Mergers
WASHINGTON-A divided Federal Trade Commission on Wednesday
withdrew guidelines adopted just last year on how the government
reviews so-called vertical mergers of companies that don't directly
compete with one another, the latest signal the agency is looking
to escalate antitrust scrutiny of deal making.
FTC Chairwoman Lina Khan, during a virtual public meeting, said
she was concerned that the recent Trump-era guidelines gave too
much credit to business efficiencies and other potential upsides of
vertical mergers while not fully recognizing the harms that some of
those deals could create in the marketplace.
Read More ->
Covid-19 Pandemic Aid Kept Millions of Americans Out of Poverty
in 2020
The sweeping financial assistance Congress provided to Americans
earlier in the Covid-19 pandemic kept millions from sliding into
poverty during the worst economic fallout from the crisis, new
census figures show.
The U.S. poverty rate rose in 2020 after five years of annual
declines, according to data released by the Census Bureau this
week. But the broader Supplemental Poverty Measure, which factors
in some expenses and accounts for a wider range of income-including
hundreds of billions of dollars in pandemic aid-dropped to a record
low 9.1%, marking the first time that yardstick has fallen below
the official poverty rate.
Read More ->
Eurozone Exports Rose on Month in July
Eurozone exports rose in July after six consecutive falls,
signaling that international goods trading was on a weak footing
despite the easing of most coronavirus-related restrictions.
The European Union's statistics agency said Thursday that the
currency area's exports rose by 1.0% in July from June, while
imports increased 0.3%, both adjusted for seasonal variations. The
seasonally adjusted trade surplus was 13.4 billion euros ($15.8
billion) compared with EUR11.9 billion in June.
Read More ->
Japan's Exports Rose for Sixth Straight Month in August
Japan's exports climbed by double digits for the sixth straight
month in August, driven by strong demand for steel,
semiconductor-related products and auto parts in key overseas
markets, Ministry of Finance data showed Thursday.
Exports increased 26.2% compared with the same period a year
earlier, easing from July's 37% increase. The result was weaker
than the 32.2% increase tipped by a FactSet survey of
economists.
Read More ->
U.S. to Share Nuclear Submarine Technology With Australia in New
Pact
WASHINGTON-The U.S., the United Kingdom and Australia are
creating a new security partnership in the Indo-Pacific, building
on the longstanding alliance between the three to share
intelligence, deepen cooperation and help Australia to build
nuclear-powered submarine capabilities as China's influence
grows.
The new agreement, announced Wednesday by leaders of the three
countries, was described by administration officials as a way to
line up common interests in the Asia Pacific.
Read More ->
Parents Seek Out Covid-19 Vaccine Trials for Their Children
Ahead of Official Authorization
Rachael DiFransico's 14-month-old daughter Sybil chewed on a
plastic toy at a doctor's office in the Cleveland suburbs while
waiting one recent day to enroll in a study testing whether a
Covid-19 vaccine works safely in children.
"This trial is our best shot at getting the vaccine as quickly
as possible," said Ms. DiFransico, who said she wanted Sybil to be
able to spend more time with other children and extended family.
"We want some semblance of normalcy for her."
Read More ->
Drug-Prices Measure Splinters House Democrats
WASHINGTON-Democratic divisions spilled into the open Wednesday
over how to lower prescription drug prices as part of a broader
$3.5 trillion budget package, signaling the challenge Democratic
leaders face ironing out internal disagreements over a marquee
component of the legislation.
Democratic Reps. Scott Peters of California, Kurt Schrader of
Oregon and Kathleen Rice of New York voted against a measure
enabling Medicare to negotiate for lower prescription drug costs in
a House Energy and Commerce Committee vote Wednesday, preventing it
from advancing when the panel deadlocked in a 29-29 tie.
Read More ->
Afghan Refugees on U.S. Military Bases Wait to Begin Their New
Lives in America
RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany-In between the threat of Taliban
violence and the promise of American freedom lies this large
military installation, which has become a conduit between two
worlds for thousands of Afghans.
Many of the Afghans arriving here say they were both hopeful and
shellshocked from split-second decisions to leave home, probably
forever, and head to the U.S. They are being met by U.S. military
personnel, whose missions were transformed overnight from fighting
on the front lines to embracing evacuees fleeing the end of nearly
20 years of war.
Read More ->
Write to sarka.halas@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings:
Nothing major scheduled
Economic Indicators (ET):
0815 Aug Housing Starts
0830 Jul International transactions in securities
0830 Jul Wholesale trade
Stocks to Watch:
Canadian Pacific Reaches $27 Billion Deal to Buy Kansas City
Southern
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. clinched a deal to take over
Kansas City Southern, as a rival dropped its pursuit of the highly
coveted railroad after a monthslong battle.
The $27 billion agreement, if completed, would be the first
major merger in the industry in the U.S. in about two decades and
would create the first freight rail network linking Canada, the
U.S. and Mexico.
Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern had reached a $25
billion deal in March before the rival, Canadian National Railway
Co., submitted a roughly $30 billion topping bid. That prompted
Kansas City Southern to switch partners, before a regulatory panel
that must bless railroad mergers denied Canadian National's plans
to use a temporary voting trust, a key element of its proposal.
In the wake of that decision, Kansas City Southern on Sunday
said it favored a sweetened cash-and-stock offer from Canadian
Pacific, which had already received the go-ahead for a similar
trust. Canadian National then had five business days to improve its
offer or walk away.
In a statement on its decision not to continue pursuing the
deal, Canadian National said the U.S. regulatory landscape has
become more challenging for major railroad mergers since its bid
was launched. It referred to an executive order from President
Biden in July that focused on maintaining and increasing
competition in key sectors, including the largest railroads, and
suggested the shift could pose an issue for Canadian Pacific.
Uranium Heats Up, and Hedge Funds Score
Uranium prices are rising, enriching a handful of hedge funds
that have been betting a market laid low by a nuclear disaster a
decade ago would rebound.
The price of uranium hit an eight-year high of $44 a pound this
week, according to the price tracker UxC LLC. The surge follows the
recent launch of an exchange-traded trust by Sprott Asset
Management LP, which has bought large stockpiles of uranium after
raising money from shareholders and emerged as a favored trading
vehicle in its own right, traders said.
The turnaround in the nuclear fuel, whose price declined sharply
after the 2011 nuclear meltdowns at Fukushima, Japan, has bolstered
shares of miners including Cameco Corp. and Denison Mines Corp. of
Canada, and Texas-based Uranium Energy Corp. That boost has
benefited hedge funds including Segra Capital Management and Sachem
Cove Partners, which have been betting that uranium would bounce
back.
Traders say the surge in uranium, an element that when enriched
is manufactured into rods that fuel nuclear power plants, in some
respects echoes the 2021 rise in shares of GameStop Corp. and AMC
Entertainment Holdings Inc. Hedge funds and family offices are
among those to have invested in the newly listed trust. Traders say
interest from individual investors is also helping to drive prices
in a market that largely comprises private agreements between
buyers and sellers, rather than the open price discovery of larger
markets such as oil and gold.
Other News:
No items published
Market Talk:
CP/KSU Deal Good for All Parties, Railway Sector
Canadian Pacific's deal to acquire Kansas City Southern will
benefit all parties, including Canadian National, according to
Scotiabank. "Overall, we are encouraged to see that KSU takeover
battle between the two Canadian railroads is over (unlikely to
restart), putting an end to five months of uncertainty," the
investment bank says. Scotiabank adds that a Canadian
National/Kansas City Southern outcome may have increased investor
nervousness in the next 1-2 years "for all three railroads and as
well as perhaps for the sector," because of greater potential
regulatory risks. Scotiabank says "CN can now focus on improving
profitability while growing organically and potentially executing
some more tuck-ins, and CP moves closer to significantly enhancing
its competitive position."
Expected Major Events for Thursday
08:00/ITA: Jul Foreign Trade EU
08:30/UK: Jun Card Spending statistics
08:59/JPN: Sep Monthly Economic Report
12:15/CAN: Aug Housing Starts
12:30/US: Aug Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food
Services
12:30/CAN: Jul International transactions in securities
12:30/US: Sep Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
12:30/US: 09/11 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report -
Initial Claims
12:30/US: U.S. Weekly Export Sales
12:30/CAN: Jul Wholesale trade
13:00/RUS: Weekly International Reserves
13:45/US: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
14:00/US: Jul Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories &
Sales
14:30/US: 09/10 EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
20:00/US: Jul Treasury International Capital Data
20:30/US: Foreign Central Bank Holdings
20:30/US: Federal Discount Window Borrowings
All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Thursday
BMTC Group Inc (GBT.T) is expected to report for 2Q.
CCUR Holdings Inc (CCUR) is expected to report for 3Q.
Crossroads Systems (CRSS) is expected to report for 3Q.
Global-E Online Ltd (GLBE) is expected to report for 2Q.
National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) is expected to report $0.50 for
1Q.
US Global Investors (GROW) is expected to report for 4Q.
Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS
Alcoa Raised to Buy From Hold by Argus Research
Bio-Techne Raised to Overweight From Sector Weight by
Keybanc
Chevron Cut to Neutral From Overweight by JP Morgan
Gulfport Energy Raised to Neutral From Underweight by JP
Morgan
Integra LifeSciences Cut to Neutral From Buy by BTIG
Range Resources Raised to Neutral From Underweight by JP
Morgan
Sarepta Therapeutics Raised to Buy From Neutral by
Guggenheim
Schneider National Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by
Cowen & Co.
SW Energy Cut to Underweight From Neutral by JP Morgan
Werner Enterprises Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by
Cowen & Co.
Yum China Holdings Cut to Underperform From Neutral by
Macquarie
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal
newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 16, 2021 06:10 ET (10:10 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.