MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European stocks inched up on Wednesday as investors waited for
the outcome of a Federal Reserve policy meeting due later. Miners
were lower as China took aim at soaring commodity prices.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.1%, the German DAX was down
0.3%, the French CAC 40 was up 0.1% and the FTSE 100 index was up
0.1%.
U.K. consumer prices rose 2.1% on the year in May, the fastest
pace of growth since July 2019, the Office for National Statistics
said on Wednesday. The rise exceeded the Bank of England's target
for the first time in almost two years. But like the Fed and other
central banks, U.K. officials have said they expect price rises to
be transitory.
Germany's Ifo Institute lowered its forecast for economic growth
for the country in 2021 to 3.3% from 3.7% forecast in March, citing
bottlenecks with supplies of intermediate products.
Economic data from China showed a moderating of growth in May,
with industrial production, while retail sales and fixed-asset
investment all rising, but slowing from the pace seen in
year-earlier periods.
Mining stocks fell after China's state stockpiling body said
Wednesday that it will release national metals reserves such as
copper and aluminum batches in the near future to keep supply and
prices stable.
Commodity prices have been soaring around the world as some
economies speed up recoveries from the pandemic.
Shares of Anglo American fell 1.8% and Glencore nearly 2%. Rio
Tinto shares slipped 0.5%. Copper and palladium prices shifted
lower on Wednesday.
Shares of German business software group fell SAP fell on the
heels of results from U.S. rival Oracle which soundly beat
expectations for earnings and sales to close out its fiscal year on
Tuesday. However, Oracle shares slipped amid
softer-than-anticipated guidance for the August quarter.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures wavered ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest
projections, which could provide cues on when policy makers may
begin to dial back support for the economy.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 edged down less than 0.1%,
pointing to a tepid drop at the opening bell. The broad market
index ended Tuesday down 0.2%. Nasdaq-100 futures ticked up 0.1%
Wednesday, suggesting muted gains in technology stocks.
Stocks are hovering close to all-time highs with many developed
economies moving toward ending lockdowns while central banks keep
easy-money policies in place.
Investors this week are watching for any changes in Fed policy
makers' views on inflation, the labor market, and other economic
indicators that may offer hints on when they would begin tapering
bond purchases. Data Tuesday showed that retail sales dropped in
May while producer prices rose, offering a mixed picture of the
recovery.
"We've had the initial exuberance and we are catching up a
little bit to reality. Markets are less liquid-being summertime-and
they are also digesting some of this anticipation," said Shaniel
Ramjee, a multiasset fund manager at Pictet Asset Management.
"There have been some data points that have come in lower than
expected, such as retail sales. It has reduced the cause for
concern that the Fed could taper faster than expected."
The Fed will release its latest monetary policy decision at 2
p.m. ET. The central bank will also release individual policy
makers' updated quarterly economic projections. The new forecasts
could show officials expecting to raise interest rates sooner than
they anticipated in March. They are also likely to begin discussing
when and how to start scaling back bond purchases.
"We are in the camp that everything we've seen so far isn't the
kind of thing that will make the Fed change its policy outlook at
all. Employment comes first, inflation second," said Samy Chaar,
chief economist at Lombard Odier. "The Fed will stick to its
pre-set course and tolerate inflation until the labor market
improves."
Data on housing starts in the U.S. in May is due at 8:30 a.m.
Economists are expecting an increase from strong demand, at the
same time that higher costs for building materials and worker
shortages are propelling house prices.
Forex:
The dollar may rise if the Federal Reserve signals it will soon
begin talks about tapering bond purchases but gains are unlikely to
be strong or long-lasting, Unicredit said.
The dollar's moves would also probably depend on the reaction of
stocks and bonds in particular, considering the 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield is struggling to rise above 1.50%, Unicredit
analysts said.
"Recent EUR/USD lows of around 1.2090 will probably be breached
on the Fed announcement, but we doubt that the USD recovery will be
strong enough to drag the common currency below the 1.2050-1.20 key
support levels and test additional downside potential." EUR/USD was
last flat at 1.2128.
The pound rose after data showed annual U.K. inflation reached
2.1% in May, above a Wall Street Journal poll forecast of 1.9% and
exceeding the Bank of England's 2.0% target for the first time in
almost two years.
Gains are limited, however, ahead of a Fed decision later which
has the potential to boost the dollar and weigh on risk appetite,
sending the pound lower.
Bonds:
Perhaps the best one can expect from the Fed's meeting is "some
slightly more detailed guidance on the conditions that need to be
met before the Fed will consider tapering initiatives," said David
Norris, head of US credit at TwentyFour Asset Management.
This could include more of the same that Fed Chairman Jerome
Powell has said before as substantial further progress on inflation
and employment goals is needed before the Fed will look at cutting
its $120 billion of monthly bond purchases, Norris said.
TwentyFour AM will focus its attention on comments from the
various regional Fed presidents on conditions that could prompt
tapering in the future, he said.
Commodities:
Oil prices rose after oil proved an exception to downbeat
commodities trading Tuesday. Brent broke through levels not seen
since April 2019 and is gaining further after the API reported that
U.S. crude inventories fell by much more than expected in the most
recent reporting week, according to ING's Warren Patterson.
Still, "while the recent move higher in the oil market has been
driven by optimism over the demand outlook, refinery cracks suggest
that the rally in crude oil may be getting a bit ahead of itself,"
he added.
If demand were as strong as crude prices suggest, gasoline and
heating oil cracks wouldn't be coming under pressure, Patterson
said.
Gold prices edged higher as investors awaited the Fed meeting.
Comex gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,862 a troy ounce. Gold, which
has edged down 2.3% so far this month, is likely pricing in
expectations that the Fed will offer clues on tapering, suggesting
it won't move greatly on such news, said Carsten Fritsch, an
analyst at Commerzbank.
EMEA HEADLINES
HSBC Reshuffles Top Team as Alternatives Push Takes Off --
Financial News
HSBC Holdings PLC's fund management arm has created a new
division that will bring together 150 staff and alternative assets
representing more than $50 billion, shaking up its top team in the
process.
The unit called HSBC Alternatives will draw from HSBC
Alternative Investments --which includes third party hedge funds
and private market funds-- as well as teams from its private debt,
venture capital and direct real estate businesses.
Turkey's Troubles Point to Emerging-Market Risks as Economies
Recover
Any signal that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy on
Wednesday could ripple across emerging markets that are dependent
on the U.S. dollar. Prime among them is Turkey.
The Turkish lira has come under pressure in recent weeks as
investors try to assess whether the country's central bank will
heed the demands of its president to cut interest rates. But a rate
cut could drag the lira down further at the same time that the
country's high inflation rate is already diminishing the currency's
buying power.
Ifo Institute Cuts Its 2021 German Economic Growth Forecast to
3.3%
The Ifo Institute has lowered its forecast for economic growth
for Germany in 2021 to 3.3% from 3.7% forecast in March, because of
bottlenecks in the supply of intermediate products.
"Reopening businesses triggered a strong recovery, but this is
now getting pushed back a bit further than we thought in the
spring," Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of forecasts at Ifo, said.
UK Inflation Rose Above Bank of England's 2% Target in May
Annual inflation in the U.K. exceeded the Bank of England's
target in May for the first time in almost two years.
The data add to signs of inflationary pressure worldwide, though
BOE officials have said they expect any pickup in price growth to
prove transitory.
SSAB, Volvo Cars Explore Development of Fossil-Free Steel for
Use in Automotive Industry
Swedish steelmaker SSAB AB said Wednesday that it is teaming up
with Volvo Cars to jointly explore the development of fossil-free
steel for use in the automotive industry.
As part of the collaboration, Volvo Cars will be the first car
maker to secure SSAB steel made from hydrogen-reduced iron from the
company's Hybrit pilot plant in Lulea, Sweden. This steel will be
used for testing purposes and may be used in a concept car, it
said.
Made.com Group to Be Valued at $1.09 Bln in London IPO
Made.com Group PLC has priced its initial public offering at 200
pence a share, implying a market capitalization of 775.3 million
pounds ($1.09 billion) when conditional trading starts on the
London Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
The homewares and furniture company, which confirmed its IPO
plan earlier this month, said it is raising GBP100 million of new
money which will be used toward growth in existing markets,
improving its service, scaling its homeware range and giving the
group increased working capital flexibility.
Israeli Airstrikes Hit Gaza As Nationalist March in Jerusalem
Stokes Tensions
JERUSALEM-Israeli police fired rubber bullets at Palestinians
trying to disrupt a right-wing nationalist march in Jerusalem,
while Hamas militants launched incendiary balloons into Israel that
triggered Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, raising the specter
of renewed violence in the region.
The Israeli military said it carried out a limited series of
airstrikes on the militant group's compounds across the Gaza Strip,
marking the first time the rival forces have traded blows since the
two sides agreed to a May 21 truce that brought an end to an 11-day
conflict.
Iran Election Underdog Contends With Hard-Liner, Voter
Apathy
TEHRAN-As Iranians prepare to head to the polls on Friday, the
only way for the leading moderate candidate to make any headway
against the hard-line presidential front-runner is to convince
millions of Iranians to bother voting at all.
Former central bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati is pitching himself
as a reform-friendly centrist to revive Iran's relations with the
West and allow more personal freedoms, including a more prominent
role for women. He is currently polling in the low single digits,
with many Iranians saying they will skip the ballot in protest at
the way the country is run.
JPMorgan, Other Major Banks Excluded From Landmark European Bond
Program
The European Union excluded some of the world's largest banks
from working on a huge new debt-issuance program, citing recent
cases in which regulators punished them for forming cartels in the
bond and currency markets.
The banks include Barclays PLC, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Nomura
Holdings Inc., UniCredit SpA, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc.
and Credit Agricole SA, according to an EU official.
Regeneron's Antibody Drug Cuts Risk of Death in Some Covid-19
Patients
An antibody treatment developed by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
Inc. has been shown to significantly cut the risk of death among
certain hospitalized Covid-19 patients, raising hopes for a
valuable new tool for tackling severe cases.
A large U.K. trial involving nearly 10,000 patients showed that
administering REGEN-COV on top of usual care reduced the risk of
dying by a fifth among hospitalized coronavirus patients who hadn't
produced antibodies to the virus. The drug had no effect among
patients who had already produced antibodies.
Hungary Bill to Restrict How Media Depicts Homosexuality,
Transgender Rights
Hungary's parliament approved legislation on Tuesday banning
broadcasters, advertisers, and media organizations from promoting
homosexuality or transgender rights in any content available to
children, a move that drew condemnation from the U.S. and leaders
within the European Union.
The bill, first drafted as a series of new measures against
pedophilia, was tweaked to include those restrictions on media in
the last days before Tuesday's vote, which several parties
boycotted. It passed 157-1, mainly with support from the Fidesz,
the conservative-nationalist party of Prime Minister Viktor
Orban.
GLOBAL NEWS
Fed Meeting Likely to Signal Possible Policy Shifts
WASHINGTON-Federal Reserve officials are set to provide updated
details on their plans for eventually scaling back easy-money
policies as they conclude a two-day policy meeting amid signs of
accelerating economic growth and inflation.
The Fed on Wednesday is likely to say after the meeting that it
will maintain short-term interest rates near zero and keep buying
at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. The
central bank will also release individual policy makers' updated
quarterly economic projections.
Derby's Take: Consumer and Market Views on Inflation Diverge as
Fed Meeting Looms
Federal Reserve officials are approaching this week's monetary
policy meeting at a moment when consumers and markets are diverging
on what they think the future path of inflation will be.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said respondents
to its May Survey of Consumer Expectations believe that a year from
now, inflation will surge to a series high of 4%, while three years
from now, they see inflation jumping to 3.6%. What is more,
consumers expect nearly all the key real-world things people spend
their income on-home buying, rent, food, gasoline, medical care-to
see big price increases over the next year.
China to Release Metal Reserves in Effort to Tame Commodities
Rally
SINGAPORE-China plans to release national reserves of major
industrial metals in an effort to rein in surging commodities
prices fueled by a resumption of global economic activity.
The state stockpiling body, China's National Food and Strategic
Reserves Administration, said Wednesday that it plans to release
copper, aluminum, zinc and other national reserves in batches in
the near future to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk
commodities.
Turkey's Troubles Point to Emerging-Market Risks as Economies
Recover
Any signal that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy on
Wednesday could ripple across emerging markets that are dependent
on the U.S. dollar. Prime among them is Turkey.
The Turkish lira has come under pressure in recent weeks as
investors try to assess whether the country's central bank will
heed the demands of its president to cut interest rates. But a rate
cut could drag the lira down further at the same time that the
country's high inflation rate is already diminishing the currency's
buying power.
China's Economic Growth Moderates in May
China's economic growth moderated in May as the favorable base
effect faded.
Industrial production rose 8.8% in May from a year earlier,
slowing from April's 9.8% pace, according to data released
Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The growth in
industrial production matched the 8.8% pace expected by the
economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Political Summits Signal International Focus on Ransomware
The attention of world leaders to ransomware in a series of
high-level meetings highlights how quickly the destructive
cyberattacks have climbed the political agenda as a string of
recent attacks disrupted companies and critical infrastructure in
the U.S. and other countries.
On Wednesday in Geneva, President Biden is expected to pressure
Russian President Vladimir Putin to curb ransomware groups based in
Russia. Meanwhile, at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit
on Monday and the Group of Seven meeting last weekend, leaders
committed to disrupting ransomware networks and holding attackers
accountable in documents published at the end of both summits.
Write to sarka.halas@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 16, 2021 06:14 ET (10:14 GMT)
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