Wheat Climbs Amid Final Preparations for WASDE
May 11 2021 - 3:54PM
Dow Jones News
By Kirk Maltais
-- Wheat for July delivery rose 1.9% to $7.44 a bushel on the
Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday. Grain traders took advantage of
Monday's selling to get back into long positions ahead of
Wednesday's WASDE report from the USDA.
-- Soybeans for July delivery rose 1.8% to $16.18 3/4 a bushel,
the highest level since September 2012.
-- Corn for July delivery rose 1.7% to $7.24 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Regrouping Opportunity: Monday's slide in CBOT grain prices
created an opportunity for funds to jump back into grain futures
ahead of Wednesday's WASDE report. "The sector continues to see
active buying of price breaks," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX.
"Traders step aside when prices are falling, such as yesterday, but
thus far few speculative traders have any interest in building
short positions." In the CFTC's report Friday, managed money funds
maintained near-record large long positions in grains.
Great Expectations: Monday's crop progress report from the USDA
showed a big leap in the amount of corn, soybeans, and spring wheat
planted by U.S. farmers. For the week ended May 9, 67% of the U.S.
corn crop has been planted, well above the 5-year average of 52%.
However, only 20% of the corn crop has emerged, which is down from
22% at this point last year. Meanwhile, only 10% of the U.S.
soybean crop has emerged, this despite 42% of the U.S. soybean crop
being planted.
INSIGHTS
Tale of Two Markets: The USDA confirmed this morning that China
has purchased 680,000 metric tons of corn for delivery in the
2021/22 marketing year. This comes after confirmation Monday that
China purchased over 1 million tons of U.S. corn in 2021/22, while
canceling 280,000 tons of corn that were booked for 2020/21. The
move to buy more U.S. corn for next marketing year appears to
reflect the difference in price between old and new crop. "It could
be a tale of two markets with old crop pulled higher by tight old
crop supplies and Brazilian problems while anticipation of bigger
acres and a favorable weather outlook pressure new crop," said Doug
Bergman of RCM Alternatives.
Take It to the Limits: Grain futures trading on the CBOT are
expected to post big moves following the release of the May WASDE
report tomorrow at noon eastern time. "This is the first report we
see supply and demand tables for new crop," said Craig Turner of
Daniels Trading. "This report has the potential to create limit
moves if we get a big bullish or bearish surprise tomorrow. The
tighter the stocks the bigger the price moves during weather
rallies and report surprises."
Ethanol Bumper Crop: U.S. ethanol production is projected to
show a rise in the past week, according to analysts surveyed by Dow
Jones. They forecast the EIA's ethanol production data, released
tomorrow, to show production ending May 7 to total anywhere from
950,000 barrels per day to 976,000 barrels per day - up from
952,000 barrels per day reported last week. If production hits the
high end of estimates, it'll be the highest ethanol production has
been since mid-December, and well up from 617,000 barrels per day
reported at this time last year.
AHEAD:
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks
report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand report at
noon ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30
a.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 11, 2021 15:39 ET (19:39 GMT)
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