Item 1. Legal Proceedings
No material updates have occurred since the disclosure included in Part II, Item 1 “Legal Proceedings” of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2020.
Item 1A. Risk Factors
Business, Market and Strategy Risks
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively affected how we and our customers are operating our businesses. The duration of these effects, and the extent to which they will impact our future revenues, results of operations and overall financial performance, remain uncertain.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a widespread health crisis that has adversely affected the global economy, leading to reduced consumer spending and lending activities and disruptions and volatility in the global capital markets. COVID-19 has caused shutdowns to businesses and cities worldwide and has disrupted supply chains, business operations, travel, and consumer confidence.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have temporarily closed the majority of our offices (including our corporate headquarters in the United States) and implemented travel restrictions, both of which have disrupted how we operate our business. Due in part to anticipated post-pandemic workforce patterns, we have permanently closed certain non-core offices, reduced certain other office space and reduced our global workforce. Our operations may be further negatively affected by a range of external factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic that are not within our control. For example, many cities, counties, states, and countries may continue to impose a wide range of restrictions on our employees’, partners’ and customers’ physical movement to limit the spread of COVID-19. We have postponed, canceled or shifted certain of our customer, employee or industry events to virtual-only experiences and may continue to do so in the future. If the COVID-19 pandemic has a substantial impact on our employees’, partners’ or customers’ productivity or ability to collaborate, our results of operations and overall financial performance may be harmed.
The situation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic is constantly evolving and both the short-term and long-term effects remain unknown. Our customers, and therefore our business and revenues, are sensitive to negative changes in general economic conditions and lending activities. The COVID-19 pandemic may affect the rate of spending on our solutions and could adversely affect our customers’ ability or willingness to purchase our products and services, cause prospective customers to change product selections or term commitments, delay or cancel their purchasing decisions, extend sales cycles, and potentially increase payment defaults, all of which could adversely affect our future revenues, results of operations and overall financial performance. We have seen evidence that COVID-19 has adversely affected certain segments and originations volume, which may impact future revenue. We are unable to accurately predict the complete impact that COVID-19 will have on our future results of operations, financial condition, liquidity and cash flows due to numerous uncertainties, including the severity and transmission rate of the virus, the duration of the outbreak, the extent and effectiveness of containment actions, the effectiveness of any medical treatment and prevention options, and the impact of these and other factors on us, our employees, customers, partners and vendors, and on worldwide and U.S. economic conditions. If we are not able to respond to and manage these impacts effectively, our business may be harmed to a material extent.
We continue to expand the pursuit of our Decision Management strategy, and we may not be successful, which could cause our growth prospects and results of operations to suffer.
We continue to expand the pursuit of our business objective to become a leader in helping businesses automate and improve decisions across their enterprises, an approach that we commonly refer to as Decision Management, or “DM.” We have increasingly focused our DM strategy on bringing our Decision Management software together in a flexible, extensible, and cloud-native platform approach (the FICO Decision Management Platform). Our DM strategy is designed to enable us to increase our business by selling multiple connectable and extensible DM products to clients, as well as to enable the development of custom client solutions and to allow our clients to more easily expand their usage and the use cases they enable over time. The market may be unreceptive to our general DM business approach, including being unreceptive to our cloud-based offerings, unreceptive to purchasing multiple products from us, or unreceptive to our customized solutions. As we continue to pursue our DM strategy, we may experience volatility in our revenues and operating results caused by various factors, including differences in revenue recognition treatment between our cloud-based offerings and on-premise software licenses, the timing of investments and other expenditures necessary to develop and operate our cloud-based offerings, and the adoption of new sales and delivery methods. If our DM strategy is not successful, we may not be able to grow our business, growth may occur more slowly than we anticipate, or our revenues and profits may decline.
We derive a substantial portion of our revenues from a small number of products and services, and if the market does not continue to accept these products and services, our revenues will decline.
We expect that revenues derived from our scoring solutions, fraud solutions, customer communication services, customer management solutions and decision management software will continue to account for a substantial portion of our total revenues for the foreseeable future. Our revenues will decline if the market does not continue to accept these products and services. Factors that might affect the market acceptance of these products and services include the following:
•changes in the business analytics industry;
•changes in technology;
•our inability to obtain or use key data for our products;
•saturation or contraction of market demand;
•loss of key customers;
•industry consolidation;
•failure to successfully adopt cloud-based technologies;
•our inability to obtain regulatory approvals for our products and services, including credit score models;
•the increasing availability of free or relatively inexpensive consumer credit, credit score and other information from public or commercial sources;
•failure to execute our selling approach; and
•inability to successfully sell our products in new vertical markets.
Our revenues depend, to a great extent, upon conditions in the banking (including consumer credit) industry. If our clients’ industry experiences uncertainty, it will likely harm our business, financial condition or results of operations.
During fiscal 2020, 86% of our revenues were derived from sales of products and services to the banking industry. Periods of global economic uncertainty experienced in the past have produced substantial stress, volatility, illiquidity and disruption of global credit and other financial markets, resulting in the bankruptcy or acquisition of, or government assistance to, several major domestic and international financial institutions. The potential for future stress and disruptions, including in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, presents considerable risks to our businesses and operations. These risks include potential bankruptcies or credit deterioration of financial institutions, many of which are our customers. Such disruption would result in a decline in the revenue we receive from financial and other institutions. In addition, if consumer demand for financial services and products and the number of credit applications decrease, the demand for our products and services could also be materially reduced. These types of disruptions could lead to a decline in the volumes of services we provide our customers and could negatively impact our revenue and results of operations.
While the rate of account growth in the U.S. bankcard industry has been slow and many of our large institutional customers have consolidated in recent years, we have generated most of our revenue growth from our bankcard-related scoring and account management businesses by selling and cross-selling our products and services to large banks and other credit issuers. As the banking industry continues to experience contraction in the number of participating institutions, we may have fewer opportunities for revenue growth due to reduced or changing demand for our products and services that support customer acquisition programs of our customers. In addition, industry contraction could affect the base of recurring revenues derived from contracts in which we are paid on a per-transaction basis as formerly separate customers combine their operations under one contract. There can be no assurance that we will be able to prevent future revenue contraction or effectively promote future revenue growth in our businesses.
While we are attempting to expand our sales of consumer credit and banking products and services into international markets, the risks are greater as these markets are also experiencing substantial disruption and we are less well-known in them.
We rely on relatively few customers, as well as our contracts with the three major credit reporting agencies, for a significant portion of our revenues and profits. Many of our customers are significantly larger than we are and may have greater bargaining power. The businesses of our largest customers depend, in large part, on favorable macroeconomic conditions. If these customers are negatively impacted by weak global economic conditions, global economic volatility or the terms of these relationships otherwise change, our revenues and operating results could decline.
Most of our customers are relatively large enterprises, such as banks, payment card processors, insurance companies, healthcare firms, telecommunications providers, retailers and public agencies. As a result, many of our customers and potential customers are significantly larger than we are and may have sufficient bargaining power to demand reduced prices and favorable nonstandard terms.
In addition, the U.S. and other key international economies are experiencing and have experienced in the past a downturn in which economic activity was impacted by falling demand for a variety of goods and services, restricted credit, poor liquidity, reduced corporate profitability, volatility in credit, equity and foreign exchange markets, bankruptcies and overall uncertainty with respect to the economy. The potential for economic disruption presents considerable risks to our business, including potential bankruptcies or credit deterioration of financial institutions with which we have substantial relationships. Such disruption, whether arising in connection with the current COVID-19 pandemic or otherwise, could result in a decline in the volume of transactions that we execute for our customers.
We also derive a substantial portion of our revenues and operating income from our contracts with the three major credit reporting agencies, Experian, TransUnion and Equifax, and other parties that distribute our products to certain markets. The loss of or a significant change in a relationship with one of these credit reporting agencies with respect to their distribution of our products or with respect to our myFICO® offerings, the loss of or a significant change in a relationship with a major customer, the loss of or a significant change in a relationship with a significant third-party distributor (including payment card processors), or the delay of significant revenues from these sources, could have a material adverse effect on our revenues and results of operations.
If we are unable to access new markets or develop new distribution channels, our business and growth prospects could suffer.
We expect that part of the growth that we seek to achieve through our DM strategy will be derived from the sale of DM products and service solutions in industries and markets we do not currently serve. We also expect to grow our business by delivering our DM solutions through additional distribution channels. If we fail to penetrate these industries and markets to the degree we anticipate utilizing our DM strategy, or if we fail to develop additional distribution channels, we may not be able to grow our business, growth may occur more slowly than we anticipate, or our revenues and profits may decline.
If we are unable to develop successful new products or if we experience defects, failures and delays associated with the introduction of new products, our business could suffer serious harm.
Our growth and the success of our DM strategy depend upon our ability to develop and sell new products or suites of products, including the development and sale of our cloud-based product offerings. If we are unable to develop new products, or if we are not successful in introducing new products, we may not be able to grow our business or growth may occur more slowly than we anticipate. In addition, significant undetected errors or delays in new products or new versions of products may affect market acceptance of our products and could harm our business, financial condition or results of operations. In the past, we have experienced delays while developing and introducing new products and product enhancements, primarily due to difficulties developing models, acquiring data, and adapting to particular operating environments or certain client or other systems. We have also experienced errors or “bugs” in our software products, despite testing prior to release of the products. Software errors in our products could affect the ability of our products to work with other hardware or software products, could delay the development or release of new products or new versions of products, and could adversely affect market acceptance of our products. Errors or defects in our products that are significant, or are perceived to be significant, could result in rejection of our products, damage to our reputation, loss of revenues, diversion of development resources, an increase in product liability claims, and increases in service and support costs and warranty claims.
Our ability to increase our revenues will depend to some extent upon introducing new products and services. If the marketplace does not accept these new products and services, our revenues may decline.
To increase our revenues, we must enhance and improve existing products and continue to introduce new products and new versions of existing products that keep pace with technological developments, satisfy increasingly sophisticated customer requirements and achieve market acceptance. We believe much of the future growth of our business and the success of our DM strategy will rest on our ability to continue to expand into newer markets for our products and services. Such areas are relatively new to our product development and sales and marketing personnel. Products that we plan to market in the future are in various stages of development. We cannot assure you that the marketplace will accept these products. If our current or potential customers are not willing to switch to or adopt our new products and services, either as a result of the quality of these products and services or due to other factors, such as economic conditions, our revenues will decrease.
If we fail to keep up with rapidly changing technologies, our products could become less competitive or obsolete.
In our markets, technology changes rapidly, and there are continuous improvements in computer hardware, network operating systems, programming tools, programming languages, operating systems, database technologies, cloud-based
technologies and the use of the Internet. If we fail to enhance our current products and develop new products in response to changes in technology or industry standards, or if we fail to bring product enhancements or new product developments to market quickly enough, our products could rapidly become less competitive or obsolete. Our future success will depend, in part, upon our ability to:
•innovate by internally developing new and competitive technologies;
•use leading third-party technologies effectively;
•continue to develop our technical expertise;
•anticipate and effectively respond to changing customer needs;
•initiate new product introductions in a way that minimizes the impact of customers delaying purchases of existing products in anticipation of new product releases; and
•influence and respond to emerging industry standards and other technological changes.
Our product and pricing strategies may not be successful. If our competitors introduce new products and pricing strategies, it could decrease our product sales and market share, or could pressure us to reduce our product prices in a manner that reduces our margins.
Demand for our products and services may be sensitive to product and pricing changes we implement, and our product and pricing strategies may not be accepted by the market. If our customers fail to accept our product and pricing strategies, our revenues, results of operations and business may suffer. In addition, we may not be able to compete successfully against our competitors, and this inability could impair our capacity to sell our products. The market for business analytics is rapidly evolving and highly competitive, and we expect competition in this market to persist and intensify. Our regional and global competitors vary in size and in the scope of the products and services they offer, and include:
•in-house analytic and systems developers;
•scoring model builders;
•fraud and security management providers;
•enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management, and customer communication and mobility solution providers;
•business intelligence solutions providers;
•credit report and credit score providers;
•business process management and decision rules management providers;
•process modeling tools providers;
•automated application processing services providers;
•data vendors;
•neural network developers and artificial intelligence system builders;
•third-party professional services and consulting organizations;
•account/workflow management software providers;
•software tools companies supplying modeling, rules, or analytic development tools; collections and recovery solutions providers; entity resolution and social network analysis solutions providers; and
•cloud-based customer engagement and risk management solutions providers.
We expect to experience additional competition from other established and emerging companies, as well as from other technologies. For example, certain of our fraud solutions products compete against other methods of preventing payment card fraud, such as payment cards that contain the cardholder’s photograph; smart cards; cardholder verification and authentication solutions; biometric measures on devices including fingerprint and face matching; and other card authorization techniques and user verification techniques. Many of our existing and anticipated competitors have greater financial, technical, marketing, professional services and other resources than we do, and industry consolidation is creating even larger competitors in many of our markets. As a result, our competitors may be able to respond more quickly to new or emerging technologies and changes in customer requirements. They may also be able to devote greater resources than we can to develop, promote and sell their products. Many of these companies have extensive customer relationships, including relationships with many of our current and potential customers. Furthermore, new competitors or alliances among competitors may emerge and rapidly gain significant market share. For example, Experian, TransUnion and Equifax have formed an alliance that has developed a credit scoring product competitive with our products. If we are unable to respond as quickly or effectively to changes in customer requirements as our competition, our ability to expand our business and sell our products will be negatively affected.
Our competitors may be able to sell products competitive to ours at lower prices individually or as part of integrated suites of several related products. This ability may cause our customers to purchase products that directly compete with our products from our competitors. Price reductions by our competitors could negatively impact our margins, and could also harm our ability to obtain new long-term contracts and renewals of existing long-term contracts on favorable terms.
We rely on relationships with third parties for marketing, distribution and certain services. If we experience difficulties in these relationships, including competition from these third parties, our future revenues may be adversely affected.
Many of our products rely on distributors, and we intend to continue to market and distribute our products through existing and future distributor relationships. Our Scores segment relies on, among others, Experian, TransUnion and Equifax. Failure of our existing and future distributors to generate significant revenues or otherwise perform their expected services or functions, demands by such distributors to change the terms on which they offer our products, or our failure to establish additional distribution or sales and marketing alliances, could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results and financial condition. In addition, certain of our distributors presently compete with us and may compete with us in the future, either by developing competitive products themselves or by distributing competitive offerings. For example, Experian, TransUnion and Equifax have developed a credit scoring product to compete directly with our products and are collectively attempting to sell the product. Competition from distributors or other sales and marketing partners could significantly harm sales of our products and services.
Our acquisition activities may disrupt our ongoing business and may involve increased expenses, and we may not realize the financial and strategic goals contemplated at the time of a transaction.
We have acquired and expect to continue to acquire companies, businesses, products, services and technologies. Acquisitions involve significant risks and uncertainties, including:
•our ongoing business may be disrupted and our management’s attention may be diverted by acquisition, transition or integration activities;
•an acquisition may not further our business strategy as we expected, we may not integrate acquired operations or technology as successfully as we expected or we may overpay for our investments, or otherwise not realize the expected return, which could adversely affect our business or operating results;
•we may be unable to retain the key employees, customers and other business partners of the acquired operation;
•we may have difficulties entering new markets where we have no or limited direct prior experience or where competitors may have stronger market positions;
•our operating results or financial condition may be adversely impacted by known or unknown claims or liabilities we assume in an acquisition or that are imposed on us as a result of an acquisition, including claims by government agencies or authorities, terminated employees, current or former customers, former stockholders or other third parties;
•we may not realize the anticipated increase in our revenues from an acquisition for a number of reasons, including if a larger than predicted number of customers decline to renew their contracts, if we are unable to incorporate the acquired technologies or products with our existing product lines in a uniform manner, if we are unable to sell the acquired products to our customer base or if contract models of an acquired company or changes in accounting treatment do not allow us to recognize revenues on a timely basis;
•our use of cash to pay for acquisitions may limit other potential uses of our cash, including stock repurchases, dividend payments and retirement of outstanding indebtedness; and
•to the extent we issue a significant amount of equity securities in connection with future acquisitions, existing stockholders may be diluted and earnings per share may decrease.
Because acquisitions are inherently risky, our transactions may not be successful and may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Acquisitions of businesses having a significant presence outside the U.S. will increase our exposure to the risks of conducting operations in international markets.
There can be no assurance that strategic divestitures will provide business benefits.
As part of our strategy, we continuously evaluate our portfolio of businesses. We have previously, are currently, and may in the future make other changes to our portfolio as well, which may be material. Divestitures involve risks, including:
•disruption of our operations or businesses;
•reductions of our revenues or earnings per share;
•difficulties in the separation of operations, services, products and personnel;
•finding a suitable purchaser;
•disposing of businesses or assets at a price or on terms that are less favorable than we had anticipated, or with purchase price adjustments or the exclusion of assets or liabilities that must be divested, managed or run off separately;
•diversion of management's attention from our other businesses;
•the potential loss of key personnel;
•adverse effects on relationships with our customers, suppliers or their businesses,
•the erosion of employee morale or customer confidence; and
•the retention of contingent liabilities related to the divested business.
If we do not successfully manage the risks associated with divestitures, our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected as the potential strategic benefits may not be realized or may take longer to realize than expected.
Our reengineering efforts may cause our growth prospects and profitability to suffer.
As part of our management approach, we pursue ongoing reengineering efforts designed to grow revenues through strategic resource allocation and improve profitability through cost reductions. For example, in September 2020, we implemented a course of action designed to reduce our operating costs in lower value, less strategic areas of our business in order to facilitate incremental investment in higher value, more strategic areas while also reducing our facilities footprint in light of anticipated post-pandemic workforce patterns. In addition, we are in the process of implementing a new Remote Work Policy which will allow a portion of our workforce to partially or fully work from home. These and other reengineering efforts may not be successful over the long term should we fail to reduce expenses at the anticipated level, should we fail to increase revenues to anticipated levels or at all, or should productivity decline or employees’ ability to collaborate fall as a result of the Remote Work Policy. If our reengineering efforts are not successful over the long term, our revenues, results of operations and business may suffer.
We will continue to rely upon proprietary technology rights, and if we are unable to protect them, our business could be harmed.
Our success depends, in part, upon our proprietary technology and other intellectual property rights. To date, we have relied primarily on a combination of copyright, patent, trade secret, and trademark laws, and nondisclosure and other contractual restrictions on copying and distribution, to protect our proprietary technology. This protection of our proprietary technology is limited, and our proprietary technology could be used by others without our consent. In addition, patents may not be issued with respect to our pending or future patent applications, and our patents may not be upheld as valid or may not prevent the development of competitive products. Any disclosure, loss, invalidity of, or failure to protect our intellectual property could negatively impact our competitive position, and ultimately, our business. There can be no assurance that our protection of our intellectual property rights in the U.S. or abroad will be adequate or that others, including our competitors, will not use our proprietary technology without our consent. Furthermore, litigation may be necessary to enforce our intellectual property rights, to protect our trade secrets, or to determine the validity and scope of the proprietary rights of others. Such litigation could result in substantial costs and diversion of resources and could harm our business, financial condition or results of operations.
Some of our technologies were developed under research projects conducted under agreements with various U.S. government agencies or subcontractors. Although we have commercial rights to these technologies, the U.S. government typically retains ownership of intellectual property rights and licenses in the technologies developed by us under these contracts, and in some cases can terminate our rights in these technologies if we fail to commercialize them on a timely basis. Under these contracts with the U.S. government, the results of research may be made public by the government, limiting our competitive advantage with respect to future products based on our research.
Operational Risks
If our cybersecurity measures are compromised or unauthorized access to customer or consumer data is otherwise obtained, our products and services may be perceived as not being secure, customers may curtail or cease their use of our products and services, our reputation may be damaged and we could incur significant liabilities.
Because our business requires the storage, transmission and utilization of sensitive consumer and customer information, we will continue to routinely be the target of attempted cybersecurity and other security threats by outside third parties, including technically sophisticated and well-resourced bad actors attempting to access or steal the data we store. Many of our products are provided by us through the Internet. We may be exposed to additional cybersecurity threats as we migrate our data from our legacy systems to cloud-based solutions. We operate in an environment of significant risk of cybersecurity incidents resulting from unintentional events or deliberate attacks by third parties or insiders, which may involve exploiting highly obscure security vulnerabilities or sophisticated attack methods. These threats include phishing attacks on our email systems and other cyber-attacks, including state-sponsored cyber-attacks, industrial espionage, insider threats, denial-of-service attacks, computer viruses, ransomware and other malware, payment fraud or other cyber incidents.
Cybersecurity breaches could expose us to a risk of loss, the unauthorized disclosure of consumer or customer information, significant litigation, regulatory fines, penalties, loss of customers or reputational damage, indemnity obligations and other liability. If our cybersecurity measures are breached as a result of third-party action, employee error, malfeasance or otherwise, and as a result, someone obtains unauthorized access to our systems or to consumer or customer information, sensitive data may be accessed, stolen, disclosed or lost, our reputation may be damaged, our business may suffer and we could incur significant liability. Because the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service or to sabotage systems change frequently and generally are not recognized until launched against a target, or even for some time after, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques, implement adequate preventative measures or remediate any intrusion on a timely or effective basis. Because a successful breach of our computer systems, software, networks or other technology asset could occur and persist for an extended period of time before being detected, we may not be able to immediately address the consequences of a cybersecurity incident.
Malicious third parties may also conduct attacks designed to temporarily deny customers, distributors and vendors access to our systems and services. Cybersecurity breaches experienced by our vendors, by our distributors, by our customers or by us may trigger governmental notice requirements and public disclosures, which may lead to widespread negative publicity. Any such cybersecurity breach, whether actual or perceived, could harm our reputation, erode customer confidence in the effectiveness of our security measures, negatively impact our ability to attract new customers, cause existing customers to curtail or cease their use of our products and services, cause regulatory or industry changes that impact our products and services, or subject us to third-party lawsuits, regulatory fines or other action or liability, all of which could materially and adversely affect our business and operating results. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic may cause increased cybersecurity risk, as cybercriminals attempt to capitalize from the disruption, including remote working arrangements.
If we experience business interruptions or failure of our information technology and communication systems, the availability of our products and services could be interrupted which could adversely affect our reputation, business and financial condition.
Our ability to provide reliable service in our businesses depends on the efficient and uninterrupted operation of our data centers, information technology and communication systems, and increasingly those of our external service providers. As we continue to grow our SaaS business, our dependency on the continuing operation and availability of these systems increases. Our systems and data centers, and those of our external service providers, could be exposed to damage or interruption. These interruptions can include software or hardware malfunctions, communication failures, outages or other failures of third-party environments or service providers, fires, floods, earthquakes, pandemics (including the COVID-19 pandemic), war, terrorist acts or civil unrest, power losses, equipment failures, computer viruses, denial-of-service or other cybersecurity attacks, employee or insider malfeasance, human error and other events beyond our control. Although we have taken steps to prevent system failures and we have installed back-up systems and procedures to prevent or reduce disruption, such steps may not be sufficient to prevent an interruption of services and our disaster recovery planning may not account for all eventualities.
An operational failure or outage in any of these systems, or damage to or destruction of these systems, which causes disruptions in our services, could result in loss of customers, damage to customer relationships, reduced revenues and profits, refunds of customer charges and damage to our brand and reputation and may require us to incur substantial additional expense to repair or replace damaged equipment and recover data loss caused by the interruption. Any one or more of the foregoing occurrences could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
The failure to recruit and retain additional qualified personnel could hinder our ability to successfully manage our business.
Our DM strategy and our future success will depend in large part on our ability to attract and retain experienced sales, consulting, research and development, marketing, technical support and management personnel. The complexity of our products requires highly trained personnel for research and development and to assist customers with product installation, deployment, maintenance and support. The labor market for these individuals is very competitive due to the limited number of people available with the necessary technical skills and understanding and may become more competitive with general market and economic improvement. We cannot be certain that our compensation strategies will be perceived as competitive by current or prospective employees. This could impair our ability to recruit and retain personnel. We have experienced difficulty in recruiting qualified personnel, especially technical, sales and consulting personnel, and we may need additional staff to support new customers and/or increased customer needs. We may also recruit skilled technical professionals from other countries to work in the U.S., and from the U.S. and other countries to work abroad. Limitations imposed by immigration laws in the U.S. and abroad and the availability of visas in the countries where we do business could hinder our ability to attract necessary qualified personnel and harm our business and future operating results. There is a risk that even if we invest significant resources in attempting to attract, train and retain qualified personnel, we will not succeed in our efforts, and our business could be harmed. The failure of the value of our stock to appreciate may adversely affect our ability to use equity and equity-based incentive plans to attract and retain personnel, and may require us to use alternative and more expensive forms of compensation for this purpose.
The failure to obtain certain forms of model construction data from our customers or others could harm our business.
Our business requires that we develop or obtain a reliable source of sufficient amounts of current and statistically relevant data to analyze transactions and update our products. In most cases, these data must be periodically updated and refreshed to enable our products to continue to work effectively in a changing environment. We do not own or control much of the data that we require, most of which is collected privately and maintained in proprietary databases. Customers and key business partners provide us with the data we require to analyze transactions, report results and build new models. Our DM strategy depends in part upon our ability to access new forms of data to develop custom and proprietary analytic tools. If we fail to maintain sufficient data sourcing relationships with our customers and business partners, or if they decline to provide such data due to privacy, security, competition or regulatory concerns, prohibitions or a lack of permission from their customers or partners, we could lose access to required data and our products, and the development of new products, might become less effective. We could also become subject to increased legislative, regulatory or judicial restrictions or mandates on the collection, disclosure or use of such data, in particular if such data is not collected by our providers in a way that allows us to legally use the data. Third parties have asserted copyright and other intellectual property interests in these data, and these assertions, if successful, could prevent us from using these data. We may not be successful in maintaining our relationships with these external data source providers or in continuing to obtain data from them on acceptable terms or at all. Any interruption of our supply of data could seriously harm our business, financial condition or results of operations.
Global Operational Risks
Material adverse developments in global economic conditions, or the occurrence of certain other world events, could affect demand for our products and services and harm our business.
Purchases of technology products and services and decisioning solutions are subject to adverse economic conditions. When an economy is struggling, companies in many industries delay or reduce technology purchases, and we experience softened demand for our decisioning solutions and other products and services. Global economic uncertainty in the past, and currently as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, has produced substantial stress, volatility, illiquidity and disruption of global credit and other financial markets. The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the global economy, leading to reduced consumer spending and lending activities and disruptions and volatility in the global capital markets. The pandemic has also caused shutdowns to businesses and cities worldwide and has disrupted supply chains, business operations, travel, and consumer confidence.
Economic uncertainty has and could continue to negatively affect the businesses and purchasing decisions of companies in the industries we serve. Such disruptions present considerable risks to our businesses and operations. As global economic conditions experience stress and negative volatility, or if there is an escalation in regional or global conflicts or terrorism, we will likely experience reductions in the number of available customers and in capital expenditures by our remaining customers, longer sales cycles, deferral or delay of purchase commitments for our products and increased price competition, which may adversely affect our business, results of operations and liquidity.
We are subject to risks and uncertainties associated with the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the E.U., commonly referred to as “Brexit,” including implications for the free flow of labor and goods in the United Kingdom (“U.K.”) and the E.U. and other economic, financial, legal, tax and trade implications. Brexit could cause disruptions to and create uncertainty surrounding our business in the U.K., including affecting our relationships with our existing and future customers, suppliers and employees, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial results and operations. Brexit has caused, and may continue to create, volatility in global stock markets and regional and global economic uncertainty, which may cause our customers to closely monitor their costs and reduce their spending budget on our products and services.
As a result of these conditions, risks and uncertainties, we may need to modify our strategies, businesses or operations, and we may incur additional costs in order to compete in a changed business environment. Given the volatile nature of the global economic environment and the uncertainties underlying efforts to stabilize it, we may not timely anticipate or manage existing, new or additional risks, as well as contingencies or developments, which may include regulatory developments and trends in new products and services. Our failure to do so could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.
In operations outside the U.S., we are subject to additional risks that may harm our business, financial condition or results of operations.
A growing portion of our revenues is derived from international sales. During fiscal 2020, 32% of our revenues were derived from business outside the U.S. As part of our growth strategy, we plan to continue to pursue opportunities outside the U.S., including opportunities in countries with economic systems that are in early stages of development and that may not mature sufficiently to result in growth for our business. Accordingly, our future operating results could be negatively affected by a variety of factors arising out of international commerce, some of which are beyond our control. These factors include:
•general economic and political conditions in countries where we sell our products and services;
•difficulty in staffing and efficiently managing our operations in multiple geographic locations and in various countries;
•effects of a variety of foreign laws and regulations, including restrictions on access to personal information;
•data privacy and consumer protection laws and regulations;
•import and export licensing requirements;
•longer payment cycles;
•difficulties in enforcing contracts and collecting accounts receivable;
•reduced protection for intellectual property rights;
•currency fluctuations;
•unfavorable tax rules or changes in tariffs and other trade barriers;
•the presence and acceptance of varying levels of business corruption in international markets;
•terrorism, war, natural disasters and pandemics, including the COVID-19 pandemic; and
•difficulties and delays in translating products and related documentation into foreign languages.
There can be no assurance that we will be able to successfully address each of these challenges in the near term. Additionally, some of our business will be conducted in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Foreign currency transaction gains and losses are not currently material to our cash flows, financial position or results of operations. However, an increase in our foreign revenues could subject us to increased foreign currency transaction risks in the future.
In addition to the risk of depending on international sales, we have risks incurred in having research and development personnel located in various international locations. We currently have a substantial portion of our product development staff in international locations, some of which have political and developmental risks. If such risks materialize, our business could be damaged.
Legal, Regulatory and Compliance Risks
Laws and regulations in the U.S. and abroad that apply to us or to our customers may expose us to liability, cause us to incur significant expense, affect our ability to compete in certain markets, limit the profitability of or demand for our products, or render our products obsolete. If these laws and regulations require us to change our products and services, it could adversely affect our business and results of operations. New legislation or regulations, or changes to existing laws and regulations, may also negatively impact our business and increase our costs of doing business.
Laws and governmental regulation affect how our business is conducted and, in some cases, subject us to the possibility of government supervision and future lawsuits arising from our products and services. Laws and governmental regulation also influence our current and prospective customers’ activities, as well as their expectations and needs in relation to our products and services. Laws and regulations that may affect our business and our current and prospective customers’ activities include, but are not limited to, those in the following significant regulatory areas:
•Use of data by creditors and consumer reporting agencies (e.g., the U.S. Fair Credit Reporting Act);
•Laws and regulations that limit the use of credit scoring models (e.g., state “mortgage trigger” or “inquiries” laws, state insurance restrictions on the use of credit-based insurance scores, and the E.U. Consumer Credit Directive);
•Fair lending laws (e.g., the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and Regulation B, and the Fair Housing Act);
•Privacy and security laws and regulations that limit the use and disclosure of personally identifiable information, require security procedures, or otherwise apply to the collection, processing, storage, use and transfer of protected data (e.g., the U.S. Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, also known as the Gramm Leach Bliley Act; the General Data Protection Regulation (the “GDPR”) and country-specific data protection laws enacted to supplement the GDPR; the U.S. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996, as amended by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act; the Cybersecurity Act of 2015; the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology’s Cybersecurity Framework; the Clarifying Lawful Overseas Use of Data Act; and identity theft, file freezing, security breach notification and similar state privacy laws);
•Extension of credit to consumers through the Electronic Fund Transfers Act and Regulation E, as well as non‑governmental VISA and MasterCard electronic payment standards;
•Laws and regulations applicable to secondary market participants (e.g., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) that could have an impact on our scoring products and revenues, including 12 CFR Part 1254 (Validation and Approval of Credit Score Models) issued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency in accordance with Section 310 of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (Public Law 115-174), and any regulations, standards or criteria established pursuant to such laws or regulations;
•Laws and regulations applicable to our customer communication clients and their use of our products and services (e.g., the Telemarketing Sales Rule, Telephone Consumer Protection Act and regulations promulgated thereunder);
•Laws and regulations applicable to our insurance clients and their use of our insurance products and services;
•The application or extension of consumer protection laws, including implementing regulations (e.g., the Consumer Financial Protection Act, the Federal Trade Commission Act, the Truth In Lending Act and Regulation Z, the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act, the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act, the Military Lending Act, and the Credit Repair Organizations Act);
•Laws and regulations governing the use of the Internet and social media, telemarketing, advertising, endorsements and testimonials;
•Anti-bribery and corruption laws and regulations (e.g., the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the UK Bribery Act 2010);
•Financial regulatory standards (e.g., Sarbanes-Oxley Act requirements to maintain and verify internal process controls, including controls for material event awareness and notification);
•Regulatory requirements for managing third parties (e.g., vendors, contractors, suppliers and distributors);
•Anti-money laundering laws and regulations (e.g., the Bank Secrecy Act and the USA PATRIOT Act);
•Financial regulatory reform stemming from the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the many regulations mandated by that Act, including regulations issued by, and the supervisory and investigative authority of, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; and
•Laws and regulations regarding export controls as they apply to FICO products delivered in non-U.S. countries (e.g., Office of Foreign Asset Control sanctions, and Export Administration Regulations).
In addition, many U.S. and foreign jurisdictions have passed, or are currently contemplating, a variety of consumer protection, privacy, and data security laws and regulations that may relate to our business or affect the demand for our products and services. For example, the GDPR became effective on May 25, 2018 and imposes, among other things, strict obligations and restrictions on the ability to collect, analyze and transfer European Union (“E.U.”) personal data, a requirement for prompt notice of data breaches in certain circumstances, and possible substantial fines for any violations (including possible fines for certain violations of up to the greater of 20 million Euros or 4% of total worldwide annual revenue). A decision in July 2020 by the Court of Justice of the European Union (i.e., Schrems II), calls into question certain data transfer mechanisms between the E.U. and the U.S. The decision may have an adverse impact on cross-border transfers of personal data, may subject us to additional scrutiny from E.U. regulators or may increase our costs of compliance.
Brazil, India, South Africa, Japan, China, Israel, Canada, and several other countries have introduced and, in some cases, enacted, similar privacy and data security laws. The California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 (“CCPA”) gives California residents certain privacy rights in the collection and disclosure of their personal information and requires businesses to make certain disclosures and take certain other acts in furtherance of those rights. A new privacy law, the California Privacy Rights Act (“CPRA”), passed via a ballot referendum in November 2020, and will revise and expand the scope of the CCPA. Other U.S. states have considered and/or enacted similar privacy laws.
The costs and other burdens of compliance with privacy and data security laws and regulations could negatively impact the use and adoption of our solutions and reduce overall demand for them. Additionally, concerns regarding data privacy may cause our customers, or their customers and potential customers, to resist providing the data necessary to allow us to deliver our solutions effectively. Even the perception that the privacy of personal information is not satisfactorily protected or does not meet regulatory requirements could inhibit sales of our solutions and any failure to comply with such laws and regulations could lead to significant fines, penalties or other liabilities. Any such decrease in demand or incurred fines, penalties or other liabilities could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.
In addition to existing laws and regulations, changes in the U.S. or foreign legislative, judicial, regulatory or consumer environments could harm our business, financial condition or results of operations. The laws and regulations above, and changes to them or their interpretation by the courts, could affect the demand for or profitability of our products, including scoring and consumer products. New laws and regulations pertaining to our customers could cause them to pursue new strategies, reducing the demand for our products.
If we are subject to infringement claims, it could harm our business.
We expect that products in the industry segments in which we compete, including software products, will increasingly be subject to claims of patent and other intellectual property infringement as the number of products and competitors in our industry segments grow. We may need to defend claims that our products infringe intellectual property rights, and as a result we may:
•incur significant defense costs or substantial damages;
•be required to cease the use or sale of infringing products;
•expend significant resources to develop or license a substitute non-infringing technology;
•discontinue the use of some technology; or
•be required to obtain a license under the intellectual property rights of the third-party claiming infringement, which license may not be available or might require substantial royalties or license fees that would reduce our margins.
Moreover, in recent years, individuals and groups that are non-practicing entities, commonly referred to as “patent trolls,” have purchased patents and other intellectual property assets for the purpose of making claims of infringement in order to extract settlements. From time to time, we may receive threatening letters or notices or may be the subject of claims that our solutions and underlying technology infringe or violate the intellectual property rights of others. Responding to such claims, regardless of their merit, can be time consuming, costly to defend in litigation, divert management's attention and resources, damage our reputation and brand, and cause us to incur significant expenses.
Financial Risks
Our products have long and variable sales cycles. If we do not accurately predict these cycles, we may not forecast our financial results accurately, and our stock price could be adversely affected.
We experience difficulty in forecasting our revenues accurately because the length of our sales cycles makes it difficult for us to predict the quarter in which sales will occur. In addition, our selling approach is complex as we look to sell multiple products and services across our customers’ organizations. This makes forecasting of revenues in any given period more difficult. As a result of our sales approach and lengthening sales cycles, revenues and operating results may vary significantly from period to period. For example, the sales cycle for our products typically ranges from 60 days to 18 months, which may be further extended as a result of COVID-19. Customers are often cautious in making decisions to acquire our products because purchasing our products typically involves a significant commitment of capital and may involve shifts by the customer to a new software and/or hardware platform or changes in the customer’s operational procedures. This may cause customers, particularly those experiencing financial stress, to make purchasing decisions more cautiously. Delays in completing sales can arise while customers complete their internal procedures to approve large capital expenditures and test and accept our applications. Consequently, we face difficulty predicting the quarter in which sales to expected customers will occur and experience fluctuations in our revenues and operating results. If we are unable to accurately forecast our revenues, our stock price could be adversely affected.
We typically have revenue-generating transactions concentrated in the final weeks of a quarter, which may prevent accurate forecasting of our financial results and cause our stock price to decline.
Large portions of our customer agreements are consummated in the weeks immediately preceding quarter end. Before these agreements are consummated, we create and rely on forecasted revenues for planning, modeling and earnings guidance. Forecasts, however, are only estimates and actual results may vary for a particular quarter or longer periods of time. Consequently, significant discrepancies between actual and forecasted results could limit our ability to plan, budget or provide accurate guidance, which could adversely affect our stock price. Any publicly-stated revenue or earnings projections are subject to this risk.
Charges to earnings resulting from acquisitions may adversely affect our operating results.
Under business combination accounting standards, we recognize the identifiable assets acquired and the liabilities assumed in acquired companies generally at their acquisition-date fair values and separately from goodwill. Goodwill is measured as the excess amount of consideration transferred, which is also generally measured at fair value, and the net of the amounts of the identifiable assets acquired and the liabilities assumed as of the acquisition date. Our estimates of fair value are based upon assumptions believed to be reasonable but which are inherently uncertain.
After we complete an acquisition, the following factors could result in material charges and adversely affect our operating results and may adversely affect our cash flows:
•impairment of goodwill or intangible assets, or a reduction in the useful lives of intangible assets acquired;
•amortization of intangible assets acquired;
•identification of, or changes to, assumed contingent liabilities, both income tax and non-income tax related, after our final determination of the amounts for these contingencies or the conclusion of the measurement period (generally up to one year from the acquisition date), whichever comes first;
•costs incurred to combine the operations of companies we acquire, such as transitional employee expenses and employee retention, redeployment or relocation expenses;
•charges to our operating results to maintain certain duplicative pre-merger activities for an extended period of time or to maintain these activities for a period of time that is longer than we had anticipated, charges to eliminate certain duplicative pre-merger activities, and charges to restructure our operations or to reduce our cost structure; and
•charges to our operating results resulting from expenses incurred to effect the acquisition.
Substantially all of these costs will be accounted for as expenses that will decrease our net income and earnings per share for the periods in which those costs are incurred. Charges to our operating results in any given period could differ substantially from other periods based on the timing and size of our future acquisitions and the extent of integration activities. A more detailed discussion of our accounting for business combinations and other items is presented in the “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates” section of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Part I, Item 2).
General Risk Factors
The occurrence of certain negative events may cause fluctuations in our stock price.
The market price of our common stock has been volatile and may continue to be subject to wide fluctuations due to a number of factors, including variations in our revenues and operating results. We believe that you should not rely on period-to-period comparisons of financial results as an indication of future performance. Because many of our operating expenses are fixed and will not be affected by short-term fluctuations in revenues, short-term fluctuations in revenues may significantly impact operating results. Additional factors that may cause our stock price to fluctuate include the following:
•variability in demand from our existing customers;
•failure to meet the expectations of market analysts;
•changes in recommendations by market analysts;
•the lengthy and variable sales cycle of many products, combined with the relatively large size of orders for our products, increases the likelihood of short-term fluctuation in revenues;
•consumer or customer dissatisfaction with, or problems caused by, the performance of our products;
•the timing of new product announcements and introductions in comparison with our competitors;
•the level of our operating expenses;
•changes in demand and competitive and other conditions in the consumer credit, banking and insurance industries;
•fluctuations in domestic and international economic conditions, such as those which have occurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic;
•our ability to complete large installations, and to adopt and configure cloud-based deployments, on schedule and within budget;
•announcements relating to litigation or regulatory matters;
•changes in senior management or key personnel;
•acquisition-related expenses and charges; and
•timing of orders for and deliveries of software systems.
In addition, the financial markets have at various times experienced significant price and volume fluctuations that have particularly affected the stock prices of many technology companies and financial services companies, and these fluctuations sometimes have been unrelated to the operating performance of these companies. Broad market fluctuations, as well as industry-specific and general economic conditions, may negatively affect our business and require us to record an impairment charge related to goodwill, which could adversely affect our results of operations, stock price and business.
Our anti-takeover defenses could make it difficult for another company to acquire control of FICO, thereby limiting the demand for our securities by certain types of purchasers or the price investors are willing to pay for our stock.
Certain provisions of our Restated Certificate of Incorporation, as amended, could make a merger, tender offer or proxy contest involving us difficult, even if such events would be beneficial to the interests of our stockholders. These provisions include giving our board the ability to issue preferred stock and determine the rights and designations of the preferred stock at any time without stockholder approval. The rights of the holders of our common stock will be subject to, and may be adversely affected by, the rights of the holders of any preferred stock that may be issued in the future. The issuance of preferred stock, while providing flexibility in connection with possible acquisitions and other corporate purposes, could have the effect of making it more difficult for a third-party to acquire, or discouraging a third-party from acquiring, a majority of our outstanding voting stock. These factors and certain provisions of the Delaware General Corporation Law may have the effect of deterring hostile takeovers or otherwise delaying or preventing changes in control or changes in our management, including transactions in which our stockholders might otherwise receive a premium over the fair market value of our common stock.
If we experience changes in tax laws or adverse outcomes resulting from examination of our income tax returns, it could adversely affect our results of operations.
We are subject to federal and state income taxes in the U.S. and in certain foreign jurisdictions. Significant judgment is required in determining our worldwide provision for income taxes. Our future effective tax rates could be adversely affected by changes in tax laws, by our ability to generate taxable income in foreign jurisdictions in order to utilize foreign tax losses, and by the valuation of our deferred tax assets. In addition, we are subject to the examination of our income tax returns by the Internal Revenue Service and other tax authorities. We regularly assess the likelihood of adverse outcomes resulting from such examinations to determine the adequacy of our provision for income taxes. There can be no assurance that the outcomes from such examinations will not have an adverse effect on our operating results and financial condition.