By Greg Ip and Ken Thomas
Former Vice President Joe Biden is running for president on the
sort of platform that usually makes business sweat: higher taxes on
corporations and investors, aggressive action to phase out fossil
fuels, stronger unions and an expanded government role in health
care.
Yet many business executives and their allies are greeting the
prospect of a Biden presidency with either ambivalence or relief.
Credit that not to who Mr. Biden is, but who he isn't: Elizabeth
Warren or Bernie Sanders, senators with a much more adversarial
approach to business who lost to Mr. Biden in the Democratic
primary, or President Trump, whose administration has been marked
by economic-policy unpredictability.
"If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders were the nominee, we'd be
having a very different conversation and thinking through our
engagement in a very different way," said Tim Adams, president of
the Institute of International Finance, which represents global
banks. "With Biden, what you have is someone who in many ways is a
throwback to a different era, who thinks about, 'How do you get
things done?' "
Asked how Mr. Biden would deal with business, his allies
describe him as pragmatic. "Joe Biden is driven less by the
politics of the moment and more by which policies he believes will
be most effective in lifting up the middle class," said Jared
Bernstein, an economist who served under Mr. Biden when he was
Barack Obama's vice president, and still advises him.
What some call pragmatism looks to others like an absence of any
ideological anchor, making it hard for outsiders to predict what
side he will take on any given issue.
"Biden has impulses, not ideas," said Michael Strain, head of
economic policy studies at the right-of-center American Enterprise
Institute. "He instinctively favors the little guy" which, he said,
could yield policies that align him either with the party's left
wing or its centrists. For many business leaders, the worry is less
Mr. Biden himself than that he may be pulled left by his party.
"I'm not sure exactly what he believes in," said one former Fortune
500 chief executive.
For Mr. Biden to raise taxes, implement his most ambitious
climate policies or add a public health-insurance option to
Obamacare, Democrats must both retain control of the House of
Representatives and win control of the Senate.
That prospect doesn't seem to have bothered the markets so far.
Stocks have remained buoyant, in part on expectations that a
unified Democratic government means more fiscal stimulus. Several
private forecasters, including Moody's Analytics and Goldman Sachs,
estimate a Democratic White House and Congress would lead to faster
economic growth than otherwise, though some see him adding more
debt, as well. Some conservative economists disagree, predicting
Mr. Biden's planned tax increases on corporations, big banks,
high-income households and assets would reduce the incentive to
work, save and invest, curtailing future output.
In a survey of about 100 CEOs who attended a Yale School of
Management conference in September, 77% said they planned to vote
for Mr. Biden. Many also are voting with their wallets. Roger
Altman, founder of investment bank Evercore Inc. and a top
Democratic fundraiser on Wall Street said, "Raising money is never
easy. But raising money for Biden by historical standards has been
very easy." The Biden campaign raised nearly $750 million in August
and September, a record for any presidential candidate.
Financial industries have contributed more than $50 million to
Mr. Biden's campaign and outside groups supporting him, more than
any other business sector, according to the Center for Responsive
Politics. His top donors include Hollywood producer Jeffrey
Katzenberg, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, and venture
capitalist Chris Sacca.
Business isn't monolithic, and political attitudes vary
considerably by industry and type of business. Of the political
donations flowing to Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump or to outside groups
supporting them, 81% of those from the securities and investment
industry went to Mr. Biden, while 81% from energy and natural
resources went to Mr. Trump. The data, compiled by the Center for
Responsive Politics, covers reported donations through mid-October.
Small-business owners have tended to be much more supportive of Mr.
Trump than the CEOs of multinationals, such as those who answered
the Yale survey.
Andy Laperriere, a policy analyst at Cornerstore Macro, a
brokerage firm, suggested in a note to clients that expectations a
Biden presidency will be good for stocks are "wishful thinking." In
another report, he wrote: "Democrats have made clear they want to
take from the 1% and make the economy fairer to average workers.
It's unlikely the 1% (which includes corporations, by their way of
thinking) are going to be left better off under those
circumstances."
Mr. Biden's plans would cost $7 trillion to $12 trillion over a
decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget, a nonpartisan watchdog group.
Mr. Biden has tried to assuage business leaders even while
promising to transform the nation with one of the most progressive
administrations since Franklin D. Roosevelt. At a fundraising event
at New York's Carlyle Hotel in June 2019, he made soothing
overtures to the Wall Street financiers in attendance.
"Remember I got in trouble with some of the people on my team,
on the Democratic side, because I said, 'You know what I've found
is rich people are just as patriotic as poor people,' " Mr. Biden
said. "You all know in your gut what has to be done. We can
disagree in the margins, but the truth of the matter is it's all
within our wheelhouse and nobody has to be punished. No one's
standard of living will change. Nothing would fundamentally
change."
The remarks drew criticism from the party's progressive base.
Still, Mr. Biden has continued to say similar things.
"I come from a corporate capital of the world, Delaware, and I'm
not anticorporate," he said on CNBC in May. An edit to a speech to
supporters in Phoenix earlier this month. was telling. The prepared
text read: "You're the ones who actually built this country, not
the Wall Street robber barons or CEOs." When he delivered the
remarks, he replaced "robber barons" with the more anodyne
"bankers."
Jake Sullivan, senior policy director for his campaign, said:
"Joe Biden is a capitalist through and through."
Through a spokesman, Mr. Biden declined to comment for this
article.
Mr. Biden has been close to unions since his first Senate
campaign in 1972, and they have contributed $14 million to his
campaign and supporting groups. Strengthening their hand with
employers is one plank in his platform. Marc Perrone, international
president of the United Food and Commercial Workers International
Union, said labor hopes for more worker-friendly policies and a
tougher Occupational Safety and Health Administration in a Biden
administration. But, he added: "I think he'll have an
administration that listens to both sides."
Mr. Biden is regularly briefed by a team that includes
progressive economists such as Mr. Bernstein and Heather Boushey,
head of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a
left-of-center think tank, and more moderate figures such as Ben
Harris, an economist at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of
Management and an adviser to Mr. Biden when he was vice president.
The economic-briefing process is overseen by Mr. Sullivan, a former
national security adviser to Mr. Biden and foreign-policy hand to
Hillary Clinton, and campaign policy director Stef Feldman, who was
an aide to Mr. Biden as vice president.
Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders had proposed the wealthy pay a
percentage of their wealth each year in tax. People familiar with
Mr. Biden's campaign said he ultimately rejected a wealth tax, not
out of ideology but practicality. Rather than create a completely
new tax, he figured he could raise revenue by raising the tax rate
the rich pay on capital gains to that of ordinary income, and
eliminating a provision that shields large asset bequests by the
wealthy from capital-gains tax.
During the primary, Mr. Biden set a goal of net-zero carbon
emissions for the economy by 2050, much less ambitious than Mr.
Sanders, who targeted net zero for power and transportation by
2030. After Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Sanders, representatives of the
two sides hammered out a single "unity" platform that retained Mr.
Biden's 2050 overall goal and added an interim goal of net-zero
emissions in electricity by 2035.
On paper, Mr. Trump's policies are more business-friendly than
Mr. Biden's: He has cut their taxes, weakened regulations,
particularly climate-related rules, and put light-touch regulators
in charge of agencies overseeing consumer protection, banking and
the workplace.
Some of the goodwill generated with business by those policies
and appointments, though, has been eroded by his trade actions
against China and U.S. allies and the atmosphere of division and
chaos that accompanies his economic decisions.
Lloyd Blankfein, former chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group
Inc. and a Democrat who was critical of both Mr. Sanders and Ms.
Warren, tweeted last month: "So far the stock market doesn't seem
too upset at the prospect of Biden winning, despite Trump's more
market-friendly policies. Perhaps folks think their stocks and
401(k)s will do better with higher taxes and increased regulation
than with nastiness and scorched earth."
Given their uncertainty over Mr. Biden's core ideology, business
leaders are eager to know whom he will appoint to key positions
should he win. Mr. Biden has said he doesn't intend to name any
potential cabinet nominees until after the election.
Liberals in the party would like to see Ms. Warren receive a
plum role in a Biden administration, along with progressive
stalwarts in Congress such as Pramila Jayapal (D., Wash.), and
Katie Porter (D., Calif.). Liberal groups have also promoted
Columbia University economist Joseph Stiglitz as a potential head
of the National Economic Council.
Wade Randlett, a Biden fundraiser who is an executive at General
Biofuels, a California-based alternative-energy company, said
progressives probably overstate their leverage with Mr. Biden given
that they didn't support him during the primary and "repudiated him
and his ideas all the way."
CEOs, who were prominent in Mr. Trump's first cabinet, are
largely absent from Mr. Biden's inner circle, although many close
aides have worked in the private sector, often as lobbyists.
Business leaders say Ms. Warren as Treasury secretary is the
sort of appointment that would alarm them. People close to the
campaign say that is unlikely, not least because it could cost
Democrats a seat in a closely divided Senate, at least temporarily,
because the state has a Republican governor who would choose an
interim replacement.
Among the potential picks for Treasury are three current or
former Federal Reserve officials, say people familiar with the
campaign. Lael Brainard, currently a Fed governor who served under
both Mr. Obama and President Clinton, and Roger Ferguson, chief
executive of fund manager Teachers Insurance and Annuity
Association of America and a former Fed vice chairman, would both
be reassuring figures, business leaders say. Sarah Bloom Raskin, a
favorite of liberals and a former Fed governor who served in Mr.
Obama's Treasury, is more of an unknown to business.
Energy companies are resigned to more climate regulation in a
Biden administration, said Kevin Book, head of research at
ClearView Energy Partners, an energy analysis firm. In Thursday's
final debate, Mr. Biden said he would "transition away from the oil
industry." Yet much will depend on who fills key positions such as
Environmental Protection Agency administrator. Mr. Book pointed to
Gina McCarthy, who headed the EPA under Mr. Obama and has advised
the Biden campaign, as someone the industry felt listened even if
they didn't like her decisions. People close to the campaign said
Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board, is
sometimes floated by Democratic operatives as EPA
administrator.
Mr. Book said she would worry industry because she has
"unflinchingly supported" the state's "interventionist, heavy
handed agenda." A spokesman for Ms. Nichols declined to
comment.
Business may be less out of step with a Democratic agenda than
it once was. In the past decade, many executives, like the country
at large, have moved in Democrats' direction on noneconomic issues
such as immigration, race, gay and transgender rights, and climate.
Last month, the Business Roundtable, representing more than 200
big-company CEOs, endorsed reducing U.S. net carbon emissions 80%
by 2050 -- a position closer to Mr. Biden's than Mr. Trump's.
Some business leaders see the current climate of polarization as
antithetical to policy-making. From infrastructure to skill
development, "there's a long list of things we need resolved, and
we're just spinning our wheels in the twittersphere, and it's time
to get back to work," said the Institute of International Finance's
Mr. Adams, who served in President George W. Bush's Treasury
Department. "Let's make America, or at least Washington, boring
again."
Write to Greg Ip at greg.ip@wsj.com and Ken Thomas at
ken.thomas@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 25, 2020 13:21 ET (17:21 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.