E*TRADE Study Reveals Bulls Charging Into New Year, yet Concerns Linger
January 13 2020 - 4:05PM
Business Wire
Despite rising geopolitical tensions and
recession concerns, investors think the market will rise this
quarter, but recognize the bull run won’t last forever
E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) today announced
results from the most recent wave of StreetWise, the E*TRADE
quarterly tracking study of experienced investors. Results indicate
increasingly bullish investor views:
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- Investors kick off the year optimistic. Bullish
sentiment rose 11 percentage points to 61%, matching 2019 bullish
highs (61%).
- And most think the market will rise this quarter. The
majority of investors (56%) believe the market will rise this
quarter, an increase of 13 percentage points since last
quarter.
- Investors feel significantly more Raging Bull. When
asked which movie best describes the market this quarter Raging
Bull scored highest (22%), up 15 percentage points since last
quarter.
- Though recession fears continue. Nearly one third of
investors (30%) say they’re most concerned with recession.
- And many think the end is near. More than three out of
five investors (62%) believe the bull market will come to an end
within two years, and most think we’re at our economic peak
(56%).
“We ended 2019 with record highs and the market continues to
show strength as we start the New Year,” said Mike Loewengart, VP
of Investment Strategy. “Amid a backdrop of strong economic
fundamentals, investors are looking past the near-term noise of
Middle Eastern tensions, trade disputes, and impeachment inquiries
and staying focused on their long-term goals. The market is nothing
if not unpredictable, so having a basket of diversified investments
will be paramount for investors to help weather the inevitable
market highs and lows.”
The survey explored investor views on sector opportunities for
the first quarter of 2020:
- IT. The tech sector has consistently remained a top
performer and, with a final Phase One US-China trade deal,
investors see opportunity ahead with nearly half (46%) showing
interest in the sector.
- Energy. As Middle Eastern tensions rise, investors are
seeing opportunity in the energy sector (45%) as supply and demand
concerns take hold. Interest in the sector ticked up 4 percentage
points for this quarter.
- Health care. The health care sector remains a key area
of interest for investors (44%). Despite bullish sentiment for this
quarter, health care stocks are typically viewed as a defensive
play with the ability to weather economic downturns.
E*TRADE aims to enhance the financial independence of traders
and investors through a powerful digital offering and professional
guidance. To learn more about E*TRADE’s trading and investing
platforms and tools, visit etrade.com.
For useful trading and investing insights from E*TRADE, follow
the company on Twitter, @ETRADE.
About the Survey
This wave of the survey was conducted from January 1 to January
10 of 2020 among an online US sample of 907 self-directed active
investors who manage at least $10,000 in an online brokerage
account. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.20 percent at the
95 percent confidence level. It was fielded and administered by
Dynata. The panel is broken into thirds of active (trade more than
once a week), swing (trade less than once a week but more than once
a month), and passive (trade less than once a month). The panel is
60% male and 40% female, with an even distribution across online
brokerages, geographic regions, and age bands.
About E*TRADE Financial and Important Notices
E*TRADE Financial and its subsidiaries provide financial
services including brokerage and banking products and services to
retail customers. Securities products and services are offered by
E*TRADE Securities LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC). Commodity futures and
options on futures products and services are offered by E*TRADE
Futures LLC (Member NFA). Managed Account Solutions are offered
through E*TRADE Capital Management, LLC, a Registered Investment
Adviser. Bank products and services are offered by E*TRADE Bank,
and RIA custody solutions are offered by E*TRADE Savings Bank, both
of which are national federal savings banks (Members FDIC). More
information is available at www.etrade.com.
The information provided herein is for general informational
purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.
E*TRADE Financial, E*TRADE, and the E*TRADE logo are trademarks
or registered trademarks of E*TRADE Financial Corporation.
ETFC-G
© 2020 E*TRADE Financial Corporation. All rights reserved.
E*TRADE Financial Corporation engages Dynata to program, field,
and tabulate the study. Dynata provides digital research data and
has locations in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and
Asia-Pacific. For more information, please go to
www.dynata.com.
Referenced Data
When it comes to the current market,
are you?
Total
Q1’20
Q4’19
Q3’19
Q2’19
Q1’19
Bullish
61%
50%
61%
58%
46%
Bearish
39%
50%
39%
42%
54%
Where do you predict the market will
end this quarter?
Q1'20
Q4'19
Drop (Net)
25%
36%
Drop - 20%
1%
1%
Drop - 15%
1%
3%
Drop - 10%
7%
8%
Drop - 5%
16%
23%
Stay where it is
19%
22%
Rise 5%
37%
26%
Rise 10%
13%
11%
Rise 15%
4%
4%
Rise 20%
2%
2%
Rise (Net)
56%
43%
If you had to pick a movie title that
best describes how you personally feel about the market this
quarter, which would it be?
Total
Q1’20
Q4’19
Raging Bull
22%
7%
Easy Rider
22%
21%
Singin' in the Rain
19%
12%
Dazed and Confused
17%
32%
Pulp Fiction
8%
10%
Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
5%
7%
Jackass
4%
8%
Apocalypse Now
3%
3%
Which of the following risks are you
most concerned about when it comes to your portfolio? (Top
2)
Total
Q1’20
Q4’19
US trade tensions
44%
47%
Recession
30%
34%
Market volatility
23%
22%
Gridlock in Washington
23%
24%
Economic weakness abroad
20%
20%
Fed monetary policy
16%
16%
Flattening/inverted yield curve
11%
11%
Brexit
7%
8%
Softening job market
5%
4%
Low inflation
5%
3%
Other
8%
5%
None of these
4%
3%
How many years do you think we have
left in the bull market?
Total
Q1’20
Q4’19
5+ years
5%
4%
3–4 years
23%
23%
1–2 years
37%
34%
The end is near
25%
28%
I don’t know
10%
11%
What stage of the business cycle do you
believe we are currently in?
Total
Q1’20
Q4’19
Peak
56%
52%
Expansion
27%
19%
Recession
13%
24%
Trough
2%
4%
Recovery
2%
1%
What industries do you think offer the
most potential this quarter? (Top three)
Q1’20
Q4’19
Q3’19
Q2’19
Q1’19
Information technology
46%
47%
47%
44%
38%
Energy
45%
41%
41%
48%
40%
Health care
44%
43%
48%
48%
50%
Financials
33%
31%
35%
34%
36%
Real estate
27%
-
-
-
-
Utilities
21%
32%
26%
27%
29%
Communication services
20%
21%
23%
22%
23%
Consumer staples
19%
30%
25%
22%
30%
Industrials
17%
18%
21%
22%
20%
Materials
16%
17%
16%
19%
16%
Consumer discretionary
13%
19%
18%
15%
17%
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200113005876/en/
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