SEATTLE, Dec. 11, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Rising rents
across the country are burdening financially limited renters, and
contributing to higher rates of homelessness in many of the
nation's least affordable markets.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
estimates that 553,752 people nationwide experienced homelessness
in 2017i, based on a point-in-time count in January.
Since 2010, the counted homeless population has fallen by about 13
percent. However, prior researchii shows these counts
are imprecise, and likely do not include the entire homeless
population in the country. The actual number of people who were
homeless is estimated to be closer to 661,000iii, 21
percent higher than the officially reported population.
New research from Zillow®, in collaboration with researchers at
the University of New Hampshire,
Boston University School of Social Work
and University of Pennsylvania, shows
that the homelessness rate accelerates much more quickly when the
rent burdeniv climbs above 32 percent. The research also
identified distinct groups of communities respond similarly to
changing rents and poverty levels, among other latent factors – all
of this information can help policymakers and social-service
organizations in otherwise disparate areas hone in on the most
effective mitigation efforts by learning from the experiences of
other areas in their peer group. This new research expands on
Zillow research last year that examined the relationship between
rising rents and homelessness.
Today, December 11, Zillow will
host "Priced Out: Rising Rent and Homelessness Across America," a
roundtable discussion in Washington,
D.C., based on this new research. It will be livestreamed at
https://www.zillowgroup.com/thought-leadership/events/.
Nationwide, about 1,500 more people can be expected to
experience homelessness when the rent burden increases by 2
percentage points. The effects of a larger rent burden are more
extreme in already unaffordable areas where rent burdens are beyond
the 32 percent tipping point. In Los
Angeles, that 2-percentage point increase could force an
additional 4,227 people into homelessness. In other communities,
homelessness is predicted to decline despite increasing rent
burdens.
Nationwide, a renter earning the median U.S. income and looking
to rent the median-priced apartment should expect to spend about 28
percent of their income on rent, up from historic norms closer to
26 percentv. But across the country, the rent burden
already exceeds the 32 percent threshold in 100 of the 386
Continuums of Carevi included in this analysis, led by
Monroe County in Florida, where the median market rate rent
consumes 62.9 percent of the area's median household income. Also
on this list are Los Angeles (49
percent), Portland, Oregon (36.7
percent), and Seattle (34.2
percent), all of which have declared a homelessness "state of
emergency."
All of these areas fall into the same group of communities
defined by high rates of homelessness, unaffordable housing and
high rates of extreme poverty. This cluster is home to 15.1 percent
of the total U.S. population, but 47.3 percent of the nation's
homeless population as officially reported by the 2017 HUD
point-in-time count.
Conversely, a separate cluster, which includes areas like
Pittsburgh and Cook County, Illinois, is characterized by a
low homelessness rate, affordable housing, and the lowest rates of
extreme property. This does not mean homelessness doesn't exist in
these areas, only that housing costs and low income play a smaller
part in defining the challenge in these communities, and unobserved
factors may be playing a bigger role.
"It's undoubtedly good news that the overall level of
homelessness has fallen nationwide, even as housing costs have
increased. But that zoomed-out view obscures some very real, local
tensions between housing affordability and homelessness, and
ignores the reality that success in tackling homelessness in one
community doesn't necessarily have the same effect in another,"
said Skylar Olsen, Zillow Director
of Economic Research and Outreach. "This first-of-its-kind research
both quantifies the true scale of the problem and reinforces the
idea that every community has its own unique challenges. But there
are similarities that can be identified, even among communities of
wildly varying sizes and locations, and learnings to be
shared. The homelessness challenge itself is hugely
multifaceted and nuanced from community to community, and requires
local and national solutions that are equally flexible, nuanced and
informed."
For additional data on specific regions or Continuums of Care,
email press@zillow.com.
Zillow
Zillow is the leading real estate and rental
marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data,
inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and
connecting them with great real estate professionals. In addition,
Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau
led by Zillow Group's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of
economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and
research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate
Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price
Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists,
real estate experts and investment and market strategists to
predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five
years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow
Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.
i
https://www.hudexchange.info/resource/5639/2017-ahar-part-1-pit-estimates-of-homelessness-in-the-us/
ii https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.09380
iii This analysis covers 386 of 399 Continuums of Care,
which include 98.7 percent of the counted homeless population in
2017.
iv Rent as a share of income
v Zillow 2018 Q3 Rent Affordability Index
vi Geographic areas that coordinate support services for
people who are homeless. They typically match with individual
cities, individual counties, or groups of counties.
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content:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/homelessness-rate-increases-faster-in-least-affordable-rental-markets-300763163.html
SOURCE Zillow, Inc.