The Impact of Saddam's Capture on British Public Opinion
December 22 2003 - 4:48PM
PR Newswire (US)
The Impact of Saddam's Capture on British Public Opinion An Early
Christmas Gift for Tony Blair and the Labour Party ROCHESTER, N.Y.,
and LONDON, Dec. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- In the hours following the
announcement of Saddam Hussein's capture on December 14th, news
commentators worldwide positioned it as an early Christmas gift for
British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Labour party. Findings
from the latest HI Europe survey suggest that Hussein's capture was
indeed an early Christmas gift, albeit a small one, for Blair and
his party. "As a result of Saddam's capture, 16% of all Britons are
now more supportive of the position Blair has taken on Iraq, with
almost no one (2%) less supportive," stated John Bremer, senior
political analyst for HI Europe. "This has not only boosted Blair's
ratings as prime minister, it has also served as a boon for the
Labour party." In early October, 28% of Britons rated Tony Blair's
performance as prime minister as excellent or very good. In the
four days following the announcement of Hussein's capture, Blair's
approval rating rose to 34%. Support for the Labour party increased
as well. Labour held a 4-percentage point lead (35 to 31) over the
Conservatives in the three days preceding the announcement, based
on the responses of 3,697 Britons. Following the announcement, the
Labour lead increased to 7 percentage points (37 to 30), based on
the responses of 1,040 Britons. This Christmas gift
notwithstanding, all Britons have by no means rallied in support of
Tony Blair and his policies in Iraq: * 29% of Britons believe that
it was wrong to take military action against Iraq, and another 24%
are not sure, * 40% believe it took too long to capture Hussein, *
49% believe that Hussein's capture will make no difference at all
on safety within Iraq, and another 14% believe that it will make
Iraq a more dangerous place, * 82% are neither more nor less
supportive of Blair's position on Iraq, * 45% do not believe Iraq
had weapons of mass destruction before the war, and * 71% do not
believe that the coalition will ever find weapons of mass
destruction. "The discovery of weapons of mass destruction will
make a much deeper impression on Britons' perception of Tony Blair
than the capture of Saddam Hussein," stated George Terhanian,
president of HI Europe. "Whether Saddam's capture leads to their
discovery remains to be seen. At this point, the British public is,
at best, skeptical." TABLE 1 RATINGS FOR TONY BLAIR AS PRIME
MINISTER (Not Sure's Excluded) "Overall how would you rate the job
Tony Blair is doing as British Prime Minister?" Base: All
respondents October Dec. 14-17 % % Excellent/Pretty Good (NET) 28
34 Excellent 2 3 Pretty good 26 31 Only Fair/Poor (NET) 72 66 Only
fair 31 32 Poor 41 34 TABLE 2 POLITICAL PARTY CHOICE "If there were
to be a general election tomorrow, for which party would you vote?"
Base: All likely voters October November Dec. 11-14 Dec. 14-17 % %
% % Labour Party 35 32 35 37 Conservative Party 29 30 31 30 Liberal
Democrat Party 28 28 26 24 Other Party 8 10 8 8 TABLE 3 MILITARY
ACTION AGAINST IRAQ "Thinking about everything that has happened,
do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right
or wrong thing to do?" Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % Right
Thing 47 Wrong Thing 29 Not sure 24 TABLE 4 SUPPORT FOR BLAIR'S
POSITION ON IRAQ "Has the capture of Saddam Hussein made you more
or less supportive of the position Tony Blair has taken on Iraq?'
Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % More Supportive 16 Less
Supportive 2 No Change 82 TABLE 5 TIME REQUIRED TO CAPTURE HUSSEIN
"What do you think about the length of time it took to capture
Saddam Hussein?' Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % It took too
long 40 It was what I expected 23 I expected it to take longer 37
TABLE 6 SAFETY IN IRAQ "Do you think the capture of Saddam Hussein
will make Iraq a safer or more dangerous place?" Base: All
respondents Dec. 14-17 % Safer place 37 More dangerous place 14 It
won't change anything 49 TABLE 7 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WHEN
WAR BEGAN "Do you believe Iraq actually had weapons of mass
destruction when the war began or not?" Base: All respondents Dec.
14-17 % Yes, believe 55 No, do not believe 45 TABLE 8 DISCOVERY OF
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION "Do you believe the weapons of mass
destruction will ever be found?" Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 %
Yes, believe they will be found 29 No, do not believe they will be
found 71 Methodology for HI Europe Poll This HI Europe survey was
conducted online within Great Britain between December 11 and 17,
2003 among 4,736 Britons, aged 16 and older. Of these, 3,697 were
interviewed before the announcement of Saddam Hussein's capture,
and 1,040 were interviewed after the announcement. Figures for age,
sex, race, education, income and region were weighted where
necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in
the population. "Propensity score" weighting was also used to
adjust for respondents' propensity to be online. In theory, with
probability samples of 4,736, 3,697 and 1,040, one could say with
95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision
of plus or minus 1.4, 1.6 and 3.0 percentage points, respectively,
of what they would be if the entire adult population had been
polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several
other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are
probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling
error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response),
question wording and question order, and weighting. It is
impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these
factors. This online sample is not a probability sample. These
statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the US
National Council on Public Polls. About HI Europe HI Europe
(http://www.hieurope.com/) is a market research and consulting firm
known for its expertise in strategic business and consumer
research, particularly in the IT and telecom industries. HI Europe
plays a major role in solving its clients' complex business
problems through thoughtful application of innovative methodologies
and sophisticated technologies, focusing on those that are
Internet-based. Headquartered in London, HI Europe is a subsidiary
of US-based Harris Interactive(R), one of the world's largest
market research and consulting companies, known for The Harris
Poll(R) and also for its pioneering use of the Internet to conduct
scientifically accurate market research. About Harris
Interactive(R) Harris Interactive
(http://www.harrisinteractive.com/) is a worldwide market research
and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for
pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate
market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, U.S.A.,
Harris Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and
technology with expertise in predictive, custom and strategic
research. The Company conducts international research through
wholly owned subsidiaries-London-based HI Europe
(http://www.hieurope.com/) and Tokyo-based Harris Interactive
Japan-as well as through the Harris Interactive Global Network of
local market- and opinion-research firms, and various U.S. offices.
EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be
invited to participate in future online surveys, visit
http://www.harrispollonline.com/. DATASOURCE: Harris Interactive
CONTACT: Nancy Wong of Harris Interactive USA, +1-585-214-7316, or
; or Carole Holland of HI Europe, +44-20-8263-5268, or Web site:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ http://www.harrispollonline.com/
http://www.hieurope.com/
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