The Impact of Saddam's Capture on British Public Opinion An Early Christmas Gift for Tony Blair and the Labour Party ROCHESTER, N.Y., and LONDON, Dec. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- In the hours following the announcement of Saddam Hussein's capture on December 14th, news commentators worldwide positioned it as an early Christmas gift for British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Labour party. Findings from the latest HI Europe survey suggest that Hussein's capture was indeed an early Christmas gift, albeit a small one, for Blair and his party. "As a result of Saddam's capture, 16% of all Britons are now more supportive of the position Blair has taken on Iraq, with almost no one (2%) less supportive," stated John Bremer, senior political analyst for HI Europe. "This has not only boosted Blair's ratings as prime minister, it has also served as a boon for the Labour party." In early October, 28% of Britons rated Tony Blair's performance as prime minister as excellent or very good. In the four days following the announcement of Hussein's capture, Blair's approval rating rose to 34%. Support for the Labour party increased as well. Labour held a 4-percentage point lead (35 to 31) over the Conservatives in the three days preceding the announcement, based on the responses of 3,697 Britons. Following the announcement, the Labour lead increased to 7 percentage points (37 to 30), based on the responses of 1,040 Britons. This Christmas gift notwithstanding, all Britons have by no means rallied in support of Tony Blair and his policies in Iraq: * 29% of Britons believe that it was wrong to take military action against Iraq, and another 24% are not sure, * 40% believe it took too long to capture Hussein, * 49% believe that Hussein's capture will make no difference at all on safety within Iraq, and another 14% believe that it will make Iraq a more dangerous place, * 82% are neither more nor less supportive of Blair's position on Iraq, * 45% do not believe Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the war, and * 71% do not believe that the coalition will ever find weapons of mass destruction. "The discovery of weapons of mass destruction will make a much deeper impression on Britons' perception of Tony Blair than the capture of Saddam Hussein," stated George Terhanian, president of HI Europe. "Whether Saddam's capture leads to their discovery remains to be seen. At this point, the British public is, at best, skeptical." TABLE 1 RATINGS FOR TONY BLAIR AS PRIME MINISTER (Not Sure's Excluded) "Overall how would you rate the job Tony Blair is doing as British Prime Minister?" Base: All respondents October Dec. 14-17 % % Excellent/Pretty Good (NET) 28 34 Excellent 2 3 Pretty good 26 31 Only Fair/Poor (NET) 72 66 Only fair 31 32 Poor 41 34 TABLE 2 POLITICAL PARTY CHOICE "If there were to be a general election tomorrow, for which party would you vote?" Base: All likely voters October November Dec. 11-14 Dec. 14-17 % % % % Labour Party 35 32 35 37 Conservative Party 29 30 31 30 Liberal Democrat Party 28 28 26 24 Other Party 8 10 8 8 TABLE 3 MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ "Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?" Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % Right Thing 47 Wrong Thing 29 Not sure 24 TABLE 4 SUPPORT FOR BLAIR'S POSITION ON IRAQ "Has the capture of Saddam Hussein made you more or less supportive of the position Tony Blair has taken on Iraq?' Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % More Supportive 16 Less Supportive 2 No Change 82 TABLE 5 TIME REQUIRED TO CAPTURE HUSSEIN "What do you think about the length of time it took to capture Saddam Hussein?' Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % It took too long 40 It was what I expected 23 I expected it to take longer 37 TABLE 6 SAFETY IN IRAQ "Do you think the capture of Saddam Hussein will make Iraq a safer or more dangerous place?" Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % Safer place 37 More dangerous place 14 It won't change anything 49 TABLE 7 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WHEN WAR BEGAN "Do you believe Iraq actually had weapons of mass destruction when the war began or not?" Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % Yes, believe 55 No, do not believe 45 TABLE 8 DISCOVERY OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION "Do you believe the weapons of mass destruction will ever be found?" Base: All respondents Dec. 14-17 % Yes, believe they will be found 29 No, do not believe they will be found 71 Methodology for HI Europe Poll This HI Europe survey was conducted online within Great Britain between December 11 and 17, 2003 among 4,736 Britons, aged 16 and older. Of these, 3,697 were interviewed before the announcement of Saddam Hussein's capture, and 1,040 were interviewed after the announcement. Figures for age, sex, race, education, income and region were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. "Propensity score" weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online. In theory, with probability samples of 4,736, 3,697 and 1,040, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 1.4, 1.6 and 3.0 percentage points, respectively, of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample is not a probability sample. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the US National Council on Public Polls. About HI Europe HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/) is a market research and consulting firm known for its expertise in strategic business and consumer research, particularly in the IT and telecom industries. HI Europe plays a major role in solving its clients' complex business problems through thoughtful application of innovative methodologies and sophisticated technologies, focusing on those that are Internet-based. Headquartered in London, HI Europe is a subsidiary of US-based Harris Interactive(R), one of the world's largest market research and consulting companies, known for The Harris Poll(R) and also for its pioneering use of the Internet to conduct scientifically accurate market research. About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/) is a worldwide market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, U.S.A., Harris Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in predictive, custom and strategic research. The Company conducts international research through wholly owned subsidiaries-London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/) and Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan-as well as through the Harris Interactive Global Network of local market- and opinion-research firms, and various U.S. offices. EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com/. DATASOURCE: Harris Interactive CONTACT: Nancy Wong of Harris Interactive USA, +1-585-214-7316, or ; or Carole Holland of HI Europe, +44-20-8263-5268, or Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ http://www.harrispollonline.com/ http://www.hieurope.com/

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