TIDMRDSA TIDMRDSB 
 
   The Hague, March 31, 2020 - This is an update to the first quarter 2020 
outlook provided in the fourth quarter results announcement on January 
30, 2020. The impacts presented here may vary from the actual results 
and are subject to finalisation of the first quarter 2020 results. 
 
   Unless otherwise indicated, presented earnings impacts relate to 
earnings on a current cost of supplies basis, attributable to 
shareholders, excluding identified items. 
 
   Integrated Gas 
 
 
   -- Production is expected to be between 920 and 970 thousand barrels of oil 
      equivalent per day, this includes the additional volumes from the Egypt 
      offshore assets that were previously reported in the Upstream segment 
 
   -- LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to be between 8.8 and 9.2 million 
      tonnes 
 
   -- Dividend payments from joint ventures and associates are expected to be 
      lower than in other quarters, as is typically the case in the first 
      quarter 
 
   -- Trading and optimisation results are expected to be average and 
      approximately in line with the fourth quarter 2019 
 
   -- More than 90% of our term contracts for LNG sales in 2019 were oil price 
      linked with a price-lag of typically 3-6 months 
 
   -- CFFO in Integrated Gas can be impacted by margining resulting from 
      movements in the forward commodity curves. At the time of issue, we 
      expect margining inflows not significantly different from those received 
      in the fourth quarter 2019 
 
 
   Upstream 
 
 
   -- Production is expected to be between 2,650 and 2,720 thousand barrels of 
      oil equivalent per day, this includes the impact from the transfer of the 
      Egypt offshore assets to the Integrated Gas segment and the transfer of 
      Oil Sands to the Oil Products segment 
 
   -- Upstream margins are impacted by the weak macro environment. Upstream 
      results, excluding identified items, are also negatively impacted by the 
      effects of a weak Brazilian Real on taxation, a non-cash item 
 
 
   Oil Products 
 
 
   -- Refinery utilisation is expected to be between 80% and 84% with 
      availability expected to be between 93% and 96% 
 
   -- Refining margins are expected to be weaker compared with the fourth 
      quarter 2019 
 
   -- Oil Products sales volumes are expected to be between 6,000 and 7,000 
      thousand barrels per day 
 
   -- Marketing margins in the first quarter are expected to remain strong, as 
      the impact on demand from COVID-19 is not expected to be significant at 
      the Shell Group level in the first quarter 
 
   -- A material working capital release is expected largely driven by the 
      change in quarter-end prices impacting inventory values 
 
   -- CFFO excluding working capital movements is expected to be impacted by 
      the higher cash cost of sales 
 
   -- In February, we completed the divestment of the Martinez refinery 
 
 
   Chemicals 
 
 
   -- Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation is expected to be between 82% 
      and 87% and availability is expected to be between 94% and 97% 
 
   -- Chemicals sales volumes are expected to be between 3,700 and 4,000 
      thousand tonnes 
 
   -- Chemicals cracker and intermediate margins are expected to improve 
      compared to the fourth quarter 2019 
 
 
   Corporate 
 
 
   -- Corporate segment earnings excluding identified items are expected to be 
      a net expense at the lower end of the $800 to 875 million range for the 
      first quarter. This excludes the impact of currency exchange rate effects 
 
 
   Other 
 
 
   -- Based on changes to our oil price outlook for 2020, post-tax impairment 
      charges in the range of $400-800 million are expected for the first 
      quarter. Impairment charges are reported as identified items 
 
   -- As per previous disclosures, CFFO price sensitivity at Shell Group level 
      is still estimated to be $6 billion per annum for each $10 per barrel 
      Brent price movement 
 
          -- Note that this price sensitivity is indicative and is most 
             applicable to smaller price changes than we currently witness as 
             well as in relation to the full-year results 
 
   -- We will replace Oil Products and Chemicals plant availability with 
      utilisation metrics going forward to improve transparency on refinery and 
      chemicals production volumes. Utilisation is defined as the actual usage 
      of the plants as a percentage of the rated capacity 
 
   -- As a result of COVID-19, we have seen and expect significant uncertainty 
      with macro-economic conditions with regards to prices and demand for oil, 
      gas and related products. Furthermore, recent global developments and 
      uncertainty in oil supply have caused further volatility in commodity 
      markets. The impact of the dynamically evolving business environment on 
      first quarter results is being primarily reflected in March with a 
      relatively minor impact in the first two months. We expect to provide 
      further updates about the impact on our outlook in the first quarter 
      results announcement 
 
   -- Shell's liquidity remains strong. Reflecting the Shell Group's prudent 
      balance sheet policy and to enhance financial flexibility, Shell has a 
      new $12 billion revolving credit facility commitment. This is in addition 
      to the $10 billion credit facility signed in December 2019. Together with 
      cash and cash equivalents of circa $20 billion, available liquidity will 
      rise from $30 billion to more than $40 billion. In addition, the Shell 
      Group has access to extensive commercial paper programmes 
 
   Consensus 
 
   The consensus collection for quarterly earnings and CFFO excluding 
working capital movements, managed by VARA research, is scheduled to be 
opened for submission on April 8, 2020, closed on April 22, 2020, and 
made public on April 23, 2020. 
 
   Note the change compared with previous quarters where we have published 
CFFO including working capital movements. 
 
   Royal Dutch Shell plc 
 
   Enquiries: 
 
   Investor Relations: 
 
   Europe + 31 (0) 70 377 4540 
 
   North America +1 832 337 2034 
 
   Media: 
 
   International +44 (0) 207 934 5550 
 
   Americas +1 832 337 4355 
 
   Cautionary Note 
 
   The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly 
owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement 
"Shell", "Shell Group" and "Royal Dutch Shell" are sometimes used for 
convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its 
subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are 
also used to refer to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in 
general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where 
no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or 
entities. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" 
as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Royal Dutch 
Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and 
unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are 
generally referred to as "joint ventures" and "joint operations", 
respectively.  Entities over which Shell has significant influence but 
neither control nor joint control are referred to as "associates". The 
term "Shell interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct 
and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or 
unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party 
interest. 
 
   This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the 
meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) 
concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses 
of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical 
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. 
Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that 
are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and 
involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause 
actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those 
expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements 
include, among other things, statements concerning the potential 
exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing 
management's expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections 
and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by 
their use of terms and phrases such as "aim", "ambition", "anticipate", 
"believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", 
"may", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", 
"project", "risks", "schedule", "seek", "should", "target", 
"will" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors 
that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could 
cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the 
forward-looking statements included in this announcement, including 
(without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural 
gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency 
fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves 
estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) 
environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the 
identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, 
and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the 
risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to 
international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory 
developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; 
(k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and 
regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and 
renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, 
delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the 
reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact 
pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes 
in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend 
payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All 
forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly 
qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or 
referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on 
forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect 
future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell's Form 20-F for the 
year ended December 31, 2019 (available at www.shell.com/investor and 
www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all 
forward-looking statements contained in this announcement and should be 
considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as 
of the date of this announcement, March 31, 2020. Neither Royal Dutch 
Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to 
publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of 
new information, future events or other information. In light of these 
risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or 
inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this 
announcement. 
 
   We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement 
that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly 
prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors 
are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 
1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. 
 
   LEI number of Royal Dutch Shell plc: 21380068P1DRHMJ8KU70 
 
 
 
 
 
 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 31, 2020 02:15 ET (06:15 GMT)

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