The Conference Board Launches Global Consumer Confidence
Index
- Fifteen of 34 European economies saw a decline in consumer
confidence, including Russia and
Turkey
- However, 10 of the 16 Euro
Area economies included in the index saw no change or an increase
in the index, including Germany
and France
- Spending intentions in Europe have slightly moderated and concerns
about job prospects remain high
- Global survey is based on 32,000 responses, covering 64
markets worldwide
BRUSSELS, April 16, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The
Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Index for
Europe declined slightly in the
first quarter of 2019 to 83, down one point from 84 in the fourth
quarter of 2018, and four points below its latest peak level in the
final quarter of 2017. Concerns about job prospects remain elevated
and intentions to spend have slightly moderated. The overall slight
weakening of consumer confidence in Europe is in line with global results,
although consumers, especially in North
America and Asia-Pacific,
are significantly more optimistic than consumers in Europe.
European Confidence Declined Slightly in Q1; Labor Markets
Tightened in Most Large Markets
Consumer confidence in the
broadly defined European region declined slightly by one
point to 83, after peaking in the final quarter of 2017. However,
while 15 of 34 markets saw a decline in confidence, including
Russia and Turkey, consumers in the Euro Area, on
average, were less pessimistic. Among the largest markets in the
Euro Area, consumer confidence in Germany remained unchanged, Italy and Spain showed a decline, while France's index rebounded from the impact of
civil unrest in the prior quarter. Consumer confidence in the UK
also remained unchanged.
Concerns about job prospects remained relatively high among
European consumers, with 59 percent of consumers describing
prospects as "not so good" or "bad." Spending intentions have shown
weakening with 63 percent of European consumers indicating the time
to spend was "not so good" or "bad," compared to 60 percent in the
last quarter of 2018.
"The modest drop in consumer confidence reflects consumers'
uncertainties about where the economy is heading in 2019, fueled by
global headwinds, including trade disputes," said Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist at The
Conference Board Europe. "However, as labor markets are tight in
most Euro Area economies except Italy and Spain, higher wages should help to support
consumer spending in the months ahead."
Globally, consumer confidence also declined slightly to 106 in
the first quarter of 2019, down one point from 107 in the fourth
quarter of 2018. However, the global index is still at historically
high levels since the inception of the index in 2005, strongly
driven by Asia-Pacific and
North America. As in Europe, consumers around the world are likely
to sustain spending, but more cautiously, amid a slowing global
economy.
"In more than half the countries surveyed, consumers expressing
concerns about the current state of the economy outnumbered those
who were not concerned," said Bart van Ark, Global Chief Economist
of The Conference Board. "The majority of global consumers do not
expect conditions to become more favorable over the next twelve
months. Despite consumers' caution with regard to spending, a
pullback does not appear imminent. However, the current results
seem to indicate that global consumer confidence may be peaking,
suggesting that global economic growth may gradually slow in the
coming quarters."
Index is Latest Addition to The Conference Board's
Economic Indicators Program
The Global Consumer Confidence
Index is the latest addition to The Conference Board's portfolio of
economic indicators, which includes the Consumer Confidence Index®
for the US, The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™, the
Employment Trends Index™, The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine®
Index, and Leading Economic Indexes for 12 countries, the Euro Area
and globally.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is based on responses from
over 32,000 online consumers in 64 markets throughout Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin
America, the Middle East
and Africa, and North America. It was acquired from
Nielsen, which first began the survey in 2005. Nielsen,
which is a leading global provider of information and
analytics around what consumers buy and watch, will continue to
collaborate with The Conference Board on conducting the global
survey.
"This new index series represents an important expansion of the
global coverage of our economic indicators program, including
Europe," said van Ark. "While
informative to our members and the public on consumer expectations
worldwide, it also strengthens our forecasting and research
programs to provide trusted insights for what's ahead."
The series for the world, the 64 countries covered and regional
aggregates as well as information on several components of the
index, including job prospects, personal finances and spending
intentions, are released on a timely basis in summary format to the
public during the first two week of each quarter. Detailed data
series are made available on a complimentary basis to members of
The Conference Board.
Regional Highlights for Europe and Other Regions
- There was a wide variation in consumer confidence across the
European region. Among the larger economies, the biggest declines
between Q1-19 and Q4-18 were observed for Spain (from 94 to 88 points),
Turkey (from 87 to 83),
Russia (from 65 to 62) and
Italy (from 70 to 68).
While Russia and Turkey experienced a worsening in spending
intentions, a worsening in job prospects was the greater concern in
Italy and Spain.
- The largest increase in consumer confidence in Europe was observed for France (from 64 to 72), as it rebounded
from a 13-point decline in the last quarter of 2018 due to civil
unrest. Consumer confidence in Germany remained unchanged at 104 in the
first quarter of 2019, but Germany
had more optimistic than pessimistic consumers. In particular, job
prospects in Germany remain quite
strong, with two thirds of consumers indicating prospects were
"good" or "excellent."
- Other European countries with relatively high levels of
confidence include Denmark
(119), The Netherlands, and
Czech Republic (both at
108), Austria (107) and
Poland and Switzerland (both at 105). In all these
cases positive job prospects were the main source of high
confidence, with the exception of Poland where sentiment about personal finances
was the main source of optimism.
- North America: After a
decline last quarter, confidence improved to 118, primarily driven
by consumers in Canada. Confidence
in the US remained unchanged. Robust job and wage growth should
continue to support consumers in both markets.
- Asia-Pacific: Confidence remained
unchanged at 117, a historical high. Consumers in China, India
and Indonesia have high confidence
levels. Moreover, China's index
improved slightly to 115. The most significant decline was for
Japan, with a decrease of 5 points
to 83.
- Latin
America: Consumer confidence improved to 95, with
no markets showing a decline. After strengthening over the last two
quarters, Brazil's confidence was
unchanged in Q1. Mexico and
Colombia both rebounded from
earlier declines. Confidence levels in Argentina and Venezuela improved, yet remained very
low.
- Middle East &
Africa: Confidence levels
improved marginally to 96, the highest level in four years.
Sentiment among consumers in the region's wealthy economies,
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, remained
positive and upbeat. Only Pakistan
showed a substantial drop in confidence, most likely driven by
rising inflation and fears of austerity measures amid mounting
government financial constraints.
Source: April 2019 Global
Consumer Confidence Survey
The Conference
Board
About The Conference Board® Global Consumer
Confidence Survey
The Conference Board publishes
the quarterly Global Consumer Confidence Index at 8:00 AM ET.
The Conference Board ®Global Consumer Confidence release schedule
for 2019:
Wednesday, July 03, 2019 (for Q2 2019
data)
Wednesday, October 09, 2019 (for Q3
2019
data)
The Global Consumer Confidence Index Highlights, full report and
technical notes to this series are available on The Conference
Board website.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the
member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's
ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit
entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
www.conference-board.org.
About Nielsen
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN)
is a global performance management company that provides a
comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy.
Nielsen's Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with
Total Audience measurement services for all devices on which
content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment
offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the
industry's only global view of retail performance measurement. By
integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other
data sources, Nielsen also provides its clients with analytics that
help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has
operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90 percent of
the world's population. For more information, visit
www.nielsen.com.
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