Genworth Financial Downgraded - Analyst Blog
December 21 2011 - 11:45AM
Zacks
We are downgrading our
recommendation on Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW) to
Underperform from Neutral.
Genworth’s mortgage
insurance business is still
experiencing losses, though the magnitude of loss has narrowed in
the third quarter. Better loss mitigation results, stability
in the aging of loan delinquencies and higher levels of profitable
new business aided the company to post lower losses.
Management thus remains focused on
returning to profitability. The company is expecting to reach the
higher-end of the targeted $400 million to $500 million of loss
mitigation benefits. Genworth, year to date, has achieved $450
million loss mitigation benefits.
Also, starting 2012, Genworth will
adopt the deferred acquisition cost (DAC) guidance. The guidance
pertains to incremental direct costs of contract acquisitions and
their postponement while other costs are incurred as they
arise.
Genworth estimates the adoption of
the DAC guidance will lower retained earnings and stockholders'
equity by about $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion. Though the company
expects to defer some costs and book lower amortization, it expects
earnings to be lower in the future.
To focus more on its Retirement and
Protection segment, Genworth sold its Medicare supplement business
and related blocks of in-force business.
Furthermore, Genworth plans an
initial public offering of its Australian mortgage insurance
business in the second quarter of 2012, in order to support future
growth opportunities for the Australian business with greater
access to the capital markets, maintain control positions of
strategic mortgage insurance platforms in Australia, and free
material capital for redeployment.
Results at Retirement and
Protection as well as at International continue to be solid.
Retirement and Protection for
the first nine months posted a double digit operating income
growth while International delivered a single digit operating
income growth.
Life Insurance continues to perform
strongly with Lifestyle Protection delivering solid results based
on effective pricing, risk and cost actions. As such the company
remains focused on undertaking beneficial opportunities, pursuing
cost containment measures, and focusing more on product and
distribution in slower markets.
These efforts on the part of
Genworth will generate a gross benefit of over $70 million with
most of it benefiting 2012 earnings.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for
fourth-quarter 2011 is 21 cents per share. For full years 2011 and
2012, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are, respectively, 47 cents and
$1.32.
The quantitative Zacks #3 Rank
(short-term Hold rating) for the company indicates no clear
directional pressure on the stock over the near term.
Based in Richmond, Virginia,
Genworth Financial offers a variety of products to customers in
areas such as life insurance and lifestyle protection, long-term
care insurance, annuities, asset management and mortgage insurance
through financial intermediaries, advisors, independent
distributors and sales specialists. The company competes with
MetLife, Inc. (MET) and Prudential
Financial, Inc. (PRU).
GENWORTH FINL (GNW): Free Stock Analysis Report
METLIFE INC (MET): Free Stock Analysis Report
PRUDENTIAL FINL (PRU): Free Stock Analysis Report
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