UMBF UMB Financial Corporation

The following analysis and opinion has been developed by UMB Chief Investment Officer Bill Greiner and UMB Investment Advisors, a division of UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: UMBF). The Author Bill Greiner was named Business Week �Fearless Forecaster: 2005 Stock Market Strategist of the Year� in December 2005. He received this distinction by being the investment strategist who most accurately forecasted where the U.S. markets would end up at the close of 2005. Greiner has spent his entire career in the investment field, with more than 27 years of investment management experience. Perspective The market experienced a remarkable drop Tuesday, closing down more than 400 points on the Dow Jones industrial average. The drivers were many, but among them would include: Time: it has been more than three years since we have seen at least a 2% intra-day downside move on the Dow. Market historians have to go back to the early 1950�s to report a time of long-term, limited volatility. The market has moved up more than 16% without a significant counterbalance in market figures. This is unusual. On Monday, Alan Greenspan mentioned the possibility exists the U.S. economy may be in recession prior to the end of the year. Tuesday, reports on durable goods orders for January indicated a 7% drop from the previous report and were down 3% excluding transportation products. Analysts were expecting a �flat� reading. The Chinese market was down more than 9% Monday night in price. This was driven by new regulations from central planners who are concerned about the amount of leverage and �speculation� within their market. Given the market reaction to these notable events, it is essential to consider the following factors. First, Durable Goods order data is among the most volatile data released by Washington on a regular basis. Significant �swings� can, and do, occur from these reports. Assessing one month of data and reacting to it is not prudent. Second, the Chinese market was up more than 10% over the previous week. The 9% correction takes away one week of advance, perhaps not a signal of a new, �bear� market. And third, it is important to note the decline which occurred has been forecasted by many analysts. So, how far down can we move during this market correction? When the market produces extreme fluctuations, economic trends have demonstrated that focusing and analyzing long-term factors have made a difference in market sentiment and valuation. At the fundamental core of those factors are corporate profits and interest rates. Nothing that we have experienced in the last 48 hours would indicate corporate profit growth is going to be lower than forecasted � 6-to-9% growth for this year. Plus, there is no current data to indicate interest rates are headed significantly higher. Indeed, the bond-futures indexes are reacting to the probability the Fed will lower interest rates. This has increased from a 0% probability two days ago to the current read of 40% probability. So, it appears the needed pressures to increase rates are currently not present to a large degree. Closing Comment Over the last couple of days, the lone, substantive development that has produced tremendous interest from Wall Street is Alan Greenspan�s acknowledgement that we may see a recession start sometime during 2007. When someone of Mr. Greenspan�s capabilities talks about recession, we need to at least take note. About UMB UMB Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking, asset management and related financial services to both individual and business customers nationwide. Its banking subsidiaries own and operate 139 banking centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Arizona. Subsidiaries of the holding company and the lead bank, UMB Bank, n.a., include an investment services group based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a trust management company in South Dakota, and single-purpose companies that deal with brokerage services, consulting services and insurance.