Hoghead7
1 day ago
I'm excited, I just increased my share count by about 5% at an average cost of $.42. Considering the history of where the price has been and the current global demand for our diverse technologies, The potential to someday get back to where the share price was 3 years ago, or at this point even a year ago for that matter, would be a super gain. For the shares I've added in the past couple months anyway. Since the companies assets far out way debt, And the market cap is currently substantially less than their cash value, Just reaching 2-3X cash value would be significant. $1B market cap is easily attainable. Which is 5X The current share price. 400% gain from current level. SK contract and potential in SK alone make it worth at least half that or 200% gain! TICK TOCK!
Hoghead7
2 days ago
Ya, everything I say is my opinion obviously, but there are plenty of links and facts supporting such. I believe the current.valuation is a culmination of shorting, war, COVID, rate hikes and political concerns, regarding the election and 45V final rules. Stock is priced as if Trump wins and eliminates everything to do with fuel cells. That obviously wouldn't be good, however, we are still going to continue getting similar business in the US as what we have been getting. Much of our business and opportunities are in Canada, South Korea and Europe. Historically the majority of our income has been from SK which just recently restarted and will continue to grow. Hence the hiring of an in Country Executive to grow the business in Asia. They have over 50MW of units remaining in SK that need service in the immediate future, in negotiations. SK alone want to increase Fuel cell installations by 10 fold over the next 10-15 years.
We have an excellent reputation globally but particularly in California, Connecticut, Canada, Europe and SK. We have very significant partnerships, Exxonmobil, Toyota, Drax, E-on, DOD/US Navy, DOE/NETL, Several important financial institutions, several large Electric distribution companies and internationally recognized research companies. We have recent MOUs with many companies of which at least a couple will evolve into something big. MHB, IBM, Chart Ind, TuNur, Oando, and of course KEPCO!
In regard to not expecting $30 any time soon, I agree, over the next year, unless the elections result in a Democratic landslide. Then we could get $30 very quickly. Think about the boat load of developments over the past 2 years. Just the $160M contract in SK was huge. So was the Exxonmobil 2 1/2 year extension of the JDA combined with the 1st commercial project contract at PORTHOS. We have several other smaller ones in California, Ukraine and UConn also.
Hoghead7
3 days ago
Process this! This is 1 very important piece of the puzzle, and has absolutely 0 to do with the US political debacle and bureaucracy!
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) is a company that has deployed its technology in South Korea to generate over 100 megawatts of sustainable electricity without burning fuel. FCEL has partnered with other energy companies in the region and is working to increase its market share by building long-term service relationships.
In 2024, FCEL announced a milestone in its Korean market expansion when GGE purchased 42 of its 1.4-megawatt upgraded carbonate fuel cells to replace existing modules at the Hwaseong Baran Industrial Complex. This fuel cell power platform is the world's largest single site and can produce 58.8 megawatts of electricity from its 42 fuel cell modules. This is enough to power around 135,000 homes, and the facility also generates hot water to heat about 20,000 homes each year.
South Korea is a leader in fuel cell technology for utility-scale power generation. In 2019, the government released a Hydrogen Economy Roadmap that called for 15,000 megawatts of stationary fuel cells by 2040. Emission-free fuel cells can help the country reduce fine dust in the atmosphere from transport exhaust fumes, industry, and the jet stream. In 2022, South Korea increased its fuel cell power generation capacity by about 120 megawatts, reaching a cumulative capacity of around 892 megawatts.
Now read the Exxonmobil outlook! And think about their 10+ year development agreement which just resulted in what will be the largest CCUS project in Europe by 2026! That JDA runs through 2026 with a goal of commercializing FCE CCUS tech at ALL EXXONMOBIL FACILITIES!!!!!!
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/global/files/global-outlook/2024/global-outlook-executive-summary.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiVov3vnZiIAxV3F1kFHbZ0DQkQFnoECBAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw28_e_i0JIFWjxVBjDoI7LQ
Hoghead7
3 days ago
Shorts obviously don't expect any news significant enough to take large losses on a short position. They also obviShortsously see either more downside potential, for the greater possibility of trying to continue shorting if there's a reverse split. Again back to my theory of market capitalization being the most important factor technically as far as how low the stock can go, it does not matter whether there's a reverse split or not. 200 million market cap is 200 million market cap. Shorts are hoping the potential of a reverse split and the most common result of a reverse split is enough to create more fear and drive the price lower. I'm 100% confident, most of if not all of the people shorting, Are just waiting for the opportunity to run this thing long and hard. They know there's going to be a time because there's absolutely zero concern of bankruptcy in the foreseeable future. Cash flow in the coming six quarters will cover operational costs. I'm expecting better than EBIDTA break even Q4 24 through Q1 26. And I would expect that to continue given any further significant developments within the company in the next few quarters. Few has played this perfectly from the Get go in my opinion. The most immediate thing he did was restructure and get rid of all bad debt. He fixed the finances trimmed the fat on the workforce and the finances. Then started rebuilding. They monitored capex based on supply and demand to ensure they weren't increasing losses in case the market demand did not grow as they hoped. If you look closely however I believe they've gotten at least five different contracts in less than a year for a far greater amount than any previous two years all the way back to 2015 when doing big business with Posco. They've also brought the generation portfolio from approximately 7.5 million a year to over 60 million a year which is recurring revenue. That's over 700% growth In 5 years. Several of those projects were very high profile including Toyota, The US Navy, And the second largest fuel cell in the United States (Derby 14.8MW). They just began marketing approximately 1 year ago because some of the product were still undergoing testing and they weren't ready for commercial production at scale. They still aren't but they can easily ramp up with orders.
Hoghead7
3 days ago
Or at least a level below cash value were they feel safe enough to continue shorting. They obviously don't expect any news significant enough to take large losses on a short position. They also obviously see either more downside potential, for the greater possibility of trying to continue shorting if there's a reverse split. Again back to my theory of market capitalization being the most important factor technically as far as how low the stock can go, it does not matter whether there's a reverse split or not. 200 million market cap is 200 million market cap. Shorts are hoping the potential of a reverse split and the most common result of a reverse split is enough to create more fear and drive the price lower. I'm 100% confident, most of if not all of the people shorting, Are just waiting for the opportunity to run this thing long and hard. They know there's going to be a time because there's absolutely zero concern of bankruptcy in the foreseeable future. Cash flow in the coming six quarters will cover operational costs. I'm expecting better than EBIDTA break even Q4 24 through Q1 26. And I would expect that to continue given any further significant developments within the company in the next few quarters. Few has played this perfectly from the Get go in my opinion. The most immediate thing he did was restructure and get rid of all bad debt. He fixed the finances trimmed the fat on the workforce and the finances. Then started rebuilding. They monitored capex based on supply and demand to ensure they weren't increasing losses in case the market demand did not grow as they hoped. If you look closely however I believe they've gotten at least five different contracts in less than a year for a far greater amount than any previous two years all the way back to 2015 when doing big business with Posco. They've also brought the generation portfolio from approximately 7.5 million a year to over 60 million a year which is recurring revenue. That's over 700% growth In 5 years. Several of those projects were very high profile including Toyota, The US Navy, And the second largest fuel cell in the United States (Derby 14.8MW). They just began marketing approximately 1 year ago because some of the product were still undergoing testing and they weren't ready for commercial production at scale. They still aren't but they can easily ramp up with orders.
igotthemojo
3 days ago
smart investors need foolish investors to sell too...smart investors know that fcel has been in a downtrend for years...all the way down to a brand new multi year low as of today...
no, fcel isnt priced for BK...it is priced for much lower future prices and much lower shareholder value...everyone knows that fcel isnt going BK...they want a r/s to insure that doesnt happen...if they dont get the vote for a r/s, you will then see fcel priced for the OTC which will look a whole like being priced for BK...and then when the dilution begins, the pps will drop even lower...
but its quite likely that fcel does a r/s...the pps will magically rise from 30 cents or less to probably 10 bucks over night...but shareholders will have far less shares than they did when they went to sleep...
the pps dropped when the r/s was announced...it will drop when the vote for the r/s passes...and it will drop a lot the day the r/s is implemented...the 45v wont save it...neither will Exxon, Korea or the Navaho Nation (whatever the hell thats about) i keep hearing about...
since the pps was at 20 bucks, i kept posting that fcel was not a hold...anyone wanting to buy in or buy more should exercise patience before they do so...not after...
and the situation hasnt changed...there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to buy shares at this time...even if fabulous news comes out tomorrow, there will be plenty of opportunity for me to profit handsomely while risking nothing today...buying today brings with it huge risk...especially KNOWING theres a r/s coming down the road...its a great big red flag waving right in front of your eyes...
all you gotta do is open your eyes...
Hoghead7
3 days ago
IMO, the market capitalization will remain between $200-$300M into end of October without any SIGNIFICANT news. Significant to me would be another $100+M contract, a very high profile contract (Toyota, Exxonmobil, military) or political developments, ie Favorable rules for 45V. By end of year, regardless of the election, we move north of $300M. Reasoning! 1) the company is worth far more than $200M RS or NO RS 2) The market will have answers, uncertainty is a large part of the problem. 3) Should have several positive developments ie, SK updates (contracts) and revenue from SK begins in Q4 (Call around Christmas)! Surpassing $300M (IMO) is worst case scenario! If we have several positive developments, we could easily be north of $1B before year end! Just my humble amateur opinion!!