UPDATE: Apple Shares Touch $600 Level For First Time
March 15 2012 - 2:36PM
Dow Jones News
Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares briefly rose above $600 Thursday, the
latest milestone in their meteoric climb as expectations build for
the company's smartphone and tablet sales.
The stock has climbed consistently since re-crossing the $100
mark nearly three years ago, and it doesn't appear to be slowing as
some see the stock surpassing $700 quickly. Investors are drawn to
Apple because of the company's mind-boggling growth in sales and
earnings, its $100 billion cash pile and the general popularity of
devices like the iPad, the latest iteration of which is due to hit
U.S. stores Friday.
Apple shares rose as high as $600.01 shortly after trading
opened Thursday. The stock lost some steam later in the morning,
turning negative for a time, and recently traded at $591.49, up
$1.91. The first intraday trade above $600 comes 22 trading days
after the shares first hit the $500 mark, a faster pace than the 32
sessions it took to go from $400 to $500.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster on Thursday raised his price
target on the shares to $718 from $670, one of many analysts now
expecting the stock to go past $700. Munster said his previous
forecast gave Apple too little credit for "expected growth rates
for the smartphone and tablet markets."
Some investors also see Apple shares hitting $700 soon. Among
the trades on the options market Thursday was a bet the stock could
soar above $720 by April 21. However, the largest single trade in
Apple options was on the shares going above $660 by that date.
Overall, Apple's implied volatility--a measure of the market's
expectation for stock swings based on option prices--jumped to the
highest level since October, when the stock was trading at less
than $400 a share.
"The valuation was woefully inexpensive," said David Rolfe,
chief investment officer of Wedgewood Investment Partners, which
owns about $150 million in Apple shares. "Now, even if the stock
keeps up with earnings growth, it's going to be a fabulous
performer."
Despite the rapid stock rise, Apple's price-to-earnings
valuation--a widely used measure of how "expensive" a company's
shares are--actually has declined because of the company's even
more rapid earnings growth. While Apple's shares have doubled since
October 2010, the company's earnings are expected to nearly triple
between then and the end of Apple's fiscal year in September.
Morgan Stanley, in adding the stock Tuesday to its "best ideas"
list, noted that Apple was trading at 13.2 times the current fiscal
2012 per-share earnings estimate. The firm said the multiple was
below Apple's average over the past two years and "roughly in line
with large-cap technology peers and the S&P 500, despite a far
more attractive growth profile."
For example, the firm noted, Google Inc. (GOOG) and
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) have slightly higher
valuations than Apple despite significantly lower expected growth
rates.
Wedgewood's Rolfe said the Apple's key strength now is its
"ecosystem," the software available exclusively on its products and
the devices' ability to work in an interconnected fashion with
other Apple gadgets.
People buying an Apple device are more likely to remain loyal to
the brand because they can share their music, photos and other
content on its other devices, he said. Among the risks for the
shares is that as analysts' estimates have rocketed higher, the
company will have a harder time beating expectations, Rolfe
added.
"The biggest threat to the stock, I suppose, is just the law of
large numbers--how long can this continue?" said Joseph Doyle,
partner and portfolio manager at Morris Capital Partners, which
owns Apple shares.
"In terms of the financial side of the thing and momentum for
the foreseeable future, it's about keeping the trains running on
time," Doyle added. "And that's what [Chief Executive] Tim Cook has
shown he can do."
Along with its impressive sales momentum, Apple also boasts the
largest cash hoard of any U.S. company. Its $97.6 billion in cash,
equivalents and liquid investments as of Dec. 31 is nearly double
that of runner-up Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Moody's Investors Service
said in a report this week. Apple alone accounted for 36% of the
$179 billion increase in total corporate cash since 2009, Moody's
said.
Speculation has mounted around what Apple might do with that
liquidity, with many investors betting it will begin paying a
dividend, which could also bolster its stock.
-By Matt Jarzemsky, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2240;
matthew.jarzemsky@dowjones.com
--Kaitlyn Kiernan contributed to this report.
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