2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) Quote

Exit at 4.80 earlier rate cut pump kills VIX. Switch to SVIX smaller secure gains at play

Amen!

I have really loved this vehicle and a few others like it.
This round is going to be smokin hot!

Exit $5.03 earlier new entry 4.75

BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months. Things that make you go liar liar pants on fire

Things Consistent With Recession
Private Payrolls: Only 74,000 (and highly likely to be revised lower)
Manufacturing Payrolls: -24,000
Revisions: -86,000
Involuntary Part-Time Work: +246,000
Total Full-Time Work: -438,000
Total Part-Time Work: +527,000
Multiple Job Holders: +65,000
Hmm. Somehow that list looks familiar.
Things Also Consistent With Recession
September 3: Construction Spending Growth Slows in May, Stops in June, Negative in July
September 5: Fed Beige Book Shows Flat or Declining Economy in 9 of 12 Fed Districts
September 6: Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions
100% Consistent With Recession
For those who may have missed it (or ignored it on the basis of an OK jobs report) please consider a Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal in August
A modified McKelvey recession indicator with no false positives or false negatives since 1953 suggests we are in recession now.
Not to worry, jobs are “OK” because the BLS is very believable. If you can’t trust the BLS monthly job reports, what can you trust?
Oh, there’s just one more small thing consistent with recession, Fed rate cuts. When is it that the Fed starts starts cutting rates?

Added 4.82s earlier for a quick flip on 830am report

Loading up!

UViX $4s coming says Yellen and $700 billion cash coming into markets from Treasury. Need people to spend money again from 401ks into economy..



The "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT) is a colloquial name given to the Working Group on Financial Markets. Created in 1988 to provide financial and economic lifts to the S&P 500.

Critics fear the Plunge Protection Team doesn't just advise, but actively intervenes to prop up stock prices—colluding with banks to rig the market, in effect.
The Plunge Protection Team, composed of high-ranking government financial officials, reports directly and privately to the president of the United States.

It's a "one stock" market. NVDA just had earnings, basically said the same thing, stock tanked... now he says it again, stock pumps...as he offloads more shares.

NVDA can move the whole market. Keep that in mind...it will have greater meaning in the near future.

Today will be the first time in the history of the stock market a major rally follows largest banks warning of defaults and cutting lending. Curious what kind of close we'll see...

Dam looked away for an hr and the tables turned..

Smh

Top bollie on daily turned up

Gasoline prices always find a way down into November elections. Has been happening for many election cycles. Supply and demand can be price fixed by those in power running the big trades…CFTC rigged as can be..

Oil Facing Physical Shortage Crisis: API Crude Draws 9 Of Past 10 Weeks As Cushing Hits Tank Bottoms

It was very much a given that ahead of tonight's debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the one variable that the state does control - the price of oil - will move in the direction that gives its preferred candidate the biggest benefit, and sure enough oil plunged more than 3%, dropping to the lowest price since December 2021 (right before it quickly doubled over the next 3 months).

Wow BH, great post! I always learn something new from you, thanks.

Yes sir.

SKRE (Inverse Regional Banks ETF):

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175061266

And SKRE!

Banks are in trouble. Never in the history of the stock market has a rally happened a day after the largest bank warned of large impending losses on defaults and expectations to lower lending. Might be seeing a Black Swan event setting up. Any "event" can send UVIX soaring.

This all happened today:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175063319

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175061313

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175061266

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175058434

I almost got back to even last week but I’m not here to break even. Charts like this can be confusing on direction bc it seems to be dependent on news. I don’t think the debate will have much effect on the market, unless T is forced to walk over and slap H, Lol.

I sold my shares on Monday. Sitting on a few UVIX calls, just in case an "event" happens. The banks are in shambles today...wondering if something broke. I think the global problem may be bigger than what the Fed or PPT can control. A real-life game of Jenga is in progress.

Catch $UVIX in low $4s next Yellen will do what PPT team makes her do pump those markets



The "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT) is a colloquial name given to the Working Group on Financial Markets. Created in 1988 to provide financial and economic lifts to the S&P 500.

Critics fear the Plunge Protection Team doesn't just advise, but actively intervenes to prop up stock prices—colluding with banks to rig the market, in effect.
The Plunge Protection Team, composed of high-ranking government financial officials, reports directly and privately to the president of the United States.


, all that the government can do is bail out the losers, and it’s only going to bail out its own campaign contributors, the donor class, and the politically connected financial sector.

It’s not going to bail out the population as a whole; it’s not going to bail out the pension funds; it’s not going to bail out the indebted economy of homeowners and consumers, who are trying to break even.

They’re looked at as the collateral damage of the financialized economy.


If you hammer the working class with the American dream, this is what makes you a successful worker. You must have a car and a home. You must send your kid to college. You must have a vacation for several weeks.

If you’re demanding of the self-esteem of people wrapped up, but you’re not giving them the rising wage to afford it, what are you going to do? You’re going to throw them into debt, because that’s the only way they can have the American dream, by borrowing and going into the debt disaster.

And here’s the double irony. Where are the lenders coming from? The lenders are the employers, because their profits have been rising since productivity rises and wages don’t. So they have the growing productivity to lend to the workers, because for them it’s a no-brainer. Would I rather give my worker a rising wage or a flat wage and a loan, which he has to pay back? Well, that’s easy. We know what we’re going to do. So that’s what we have.

And over the last 40 years, we have plunged the American people into a level of debt that nobody else has ever seen. Mortgage debt, student debt, credit card debt, I mean auto debt. You add it all up and we’re talking more and more families have a bigger debt than they have an annual income. I mean, this is impossible.

Meanwhile, the wealth at the top is a wealth not only of getting the surplus out of the worker in production, but getting the interest payment when you’ve lent them the money instead of paying them a wage. I mean, this is a system guaranteed to produce grotesque inequality.
middle class, they’re wage earners—and the major exploitation of them is no longer primarily just by having industrial employers keep the profits on what the wage earners create, because after all, we’re de-industrializing.

The major exploitation that is occurring is largely in debt service. The wealthiest 1%, maybe you could say 10%, of the population hold the 90% majority in debt, and the income that’s paid to the top 10% is sucked out of the 90% in the form of debt service.

And even more important, what do these 10% do with the money? They don’t spend all of this economic rent, interest, and financial gains on goods and services. They buy stocks, and bonds, and real estate, or they lend yet more money to families to buy real estate, or to corporate raters to take over companies.

And so, what you have is the economic elite not making their money by employing labor to make profits and get wealthy out of saving the profits, but by financial engineering, by capital gains.

Yellen has $700 billion in TGA to pump markets up into rate cuts. So more inclined to SVIX but play a few day trades either side until SVIX confirms a ride back to $30

We’re close. Blow off top after Fed. Cuts. My chicken bone soup model says beware end of Sept. Until then, the roaring 20’s continue. Cheers.

I just read the article and it’s mentioning of crash signals just seem like the status quo for this administration for the last 3.5 years.

Great post! That about sums it up. I just read that on zerohedge page too:

Does Anyone Else Smell A Market Crash In The Air?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/does-anyone-else-smell-market-crash-air

Just as thunderstorms scent the air before their arrival, market crashes often announce themselves in the autumn zephyrs. Markets don't crash when everyone's in full-blown panic? they crash when the headlines and data are reassuring, analysts are confident in ever-higher profits, and complacency reigns supreme, evidenced by record-high household allocation in stocks and bullish sentiment readings.

https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2024/09/does-anyone-else-smell-market-crash-in.html

Markets crash after a brief bit of panic selling is immediately bought and markets are returned to a permanently high plateau of valuation as we saw in August, as the S&P 500 shot back up within a whisker or two of all-time highs. Punters buy every dip because this quick reaction to any drop has been richly rewarded for 15 years, and everyone has confidence in the Fed Put , ie the belief that the Fed will move Heaven and Earth to restore "market confidence" and the wealth effect .

In other words, market participants have embraced moral hazard : there is no real downside, there is only upside to buying every dip.

Markets crash when the rot beneath the surface is invisible or goes unnoticed. The few doom-and-gloomers who note extremes are immediately mocked off the stage, and the headlines tout the resilience of the economy, markets, employment, profits, and the techno-wonders heading our way.

After the crash nobody predicted, analysts swarm like ravenous locusts to the digital airwaves to lay claim to their prescience: look, look, I added a one-line disclaimer about "irrational exuberance" at the end of my report!

I'll spare you the analog charts and go right to the chase: the Oasis Indicator , brought to our collective attention by Joe Sullivan-Bennett via BondVigilantes.com: The Peculiar Relationship Between Oasis & Periods Of Extreme Market Volatility (Zero Hedge). (Fun fact: Before Oasis Wonderwall , there was George Harrison's 1968 soundtrack LP Wonderwall .)

Those turning up their nose at the Oasis Indicator might benefit from pondering these "jaws of death" charts. Everything is extreme and stays extreme until it doesn't. Consider the gaping pearly teeth of the SPX (S&P 500) and JPY (Japanese yen).

Buy the dips low $5s rinse repeat for now and then with first rate cut next week buy low low low

Recession by elections planned destruction coming to a food line near you. Market tops in Oct.

Although I remember that vividly, I’m trying to make correlations. I sold my house in ‘06 by the skin of my teeth thank god, but I also remember kinda of a perfect storm that set up as well. Seeing as we have half the country taking it prison style and don’t seem to care I’m not seeing a big downturn. Unless they put 44 back in the OO. Lol

Probably run up to FOMC rate cut mania, new highs and then look out. Just like 2007 imo

Loading these 10% dips today a bit.

Flip out at $6 was what the chart said. CPI report Wednesday so they can print market higher back to SVIX 24.70s was the nice dip

Back in 5.50

This is why I don't trust anything the Fed says.

The Fed made this comment right before the 2008 housing bubble crashed:

The Mag-7 stocks – Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta – combined by market cap dropped 2.9% for the day and 6.1% for the week and are now down 14.9% from the peak on July 10.

Just these seven stocks combined have lost $2.54 trillion in market capitalization in the two months since the peak. We’re paying attention to the Mag 7 because they’re so huge – their combined market cap is still $14.5 trillion (down from $17 trillion on July 10) – and because they have such a big impact on the overall stock market wealth due to their magnitude, and because they had such a huge run.




Each gridline in the chart below marks $1 trillion. From the beginning of 2019 through the peak on July 10, the Mag 7’s market cap spiked by 386%, or by $14.5 trillion. The years 2020 and 2021, when the Fed printed nearly $5 trillion and threw it at the markets, was a fantastical time for stocks. But since then, the Fed has been doing QT, shedding $1.85 trillion. And that was rough in 2022 for stocks. Then AI mania came to the rescue in 2023 and through July 10, 2024. But that is now blowing over too.

And there it is again, this make-or-break quality, with the August 7 low point just a breath away. Rate cuts are such a doozie. And they haven’t even started yet.



For six of the Mag 7, the peak was on July 10. For Tesla, it was in November 2021.

Mag 7 $ Share Price % Drop for the Week % Drop fr. Peak
Amazon [AMZN] 171.43 -4.0% -14.2%
Alphabet [GOOG] 152.16 -7.8% -21.0%
Microsoft [MSFT] 401.68 -3.7% -13.8%
Apple [AAPL] 220.89 -3.5% -5.2%
Nvidia [NVDA] 102.70 -14.0% -23.9%
Tesla [TSLA] 210.89 -1.5% -48.6%
Meta {META] 500.50 -4.1% -6.4%
Three of the Mag 7 – Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla – have dropped by over 20% from their peaks; Tesla by 48.6% from its November 2021 peak and by 19.9% from July 10. So we’re going to look at those three standouts more closely, plus Amazon, which is back where it had first been four years ago.

Nvidia’s market cap has now dropped to a still gigantic $2.52 trillion, giving up $406 billion during the week and $800 billion since the July 10 peak.

This stock and the company’s revenues and earnings were powered by the fantastical AI mania that befell the world and which appears to be running low on juice.



Amazon has dropped 14.2% from the July 10 peak, which put it back where it had first been just about exactly four years ago, in September 2020. Note the plunge and then the 100%-plus surge in between. A lot of fun was had by all.



Alphabet, down 21% from the July peak, is now just a hair above where it had first been in November 2021:



Tesla is down 48.6% from its peak in November 2021, and is back where it had first been nearly four years ago, in December 2020. Obviously, those buy-and-hold investors who bought in 2019 or before – on the eve of Tesla becoming a big profitable global automaker – are still up a whole bunch, but they gave up about half of their erstwhile gains over the past three years:

Job creation has now dropped to the lower end of the range in 2018 and 2019, making it more difficult for the massive waves of immigrants – 6 million in 2022 and 2023, plus those arriving this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office – to find work, which has been putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

I think the next spike will dwarf the last one.

I look at that chart and the Jaws music starts playing in my head.

Xi and Putin finishing the week with a ‘BANG’ 💥. Japan believes China’s threat to Taiwan (and subsequently the second island chain) represents the greatest risk that Japan has ever faced. Ever. #Japan #Russia #China Xi’s and Putin’s ‘Limitless Partnership’ in action.

Markets crater Monday open then
Rally into FOMC.

End of Sept will be crazy from a global perspective.

Me too, I got a feeling.

Wow, did the Fed really say that?
They also said, "SKY IS NOT FALLING"Comments like that from the Fed are rather ominous.

They always say to relax when the markets are crashing, or about to crash...

$UVIX

added $6.30 holding through the weekend this time.

Holding 25% for $6.92 end of day. Watching for NVDA touch again of $100 and SVIX becomes interesting again at $22- )23 support level

Can you believe this fake crap?
I don't!

"Fed leadership sees a 25-basis-point cut as the base case for the September meeting but is open to 50 basis-point cuts at subsequent meetings if the labor market continues to deteriorate" Goldman Sachs economists said in their summary of what will be the last public remarks on monetary policy by Fed officials before their Sept 17-18 meeting.

Two weeks ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell touched off intense speculation about the size of a September rate cut when he said "the time has come" to ease policy.

Waller echoed Powell's choice of phrase on Friday, and added that "it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate."
They also said, "SKY IS NOT FALLING"
Yes it is!

$6.92 by end of day likely .. 6.45- 6.92 zone hits. Goes crazy again if solidly breaks 6.92

Rate cut or not production worldwide has been slowing down so they will eventually print more money and inflation to boost stocks

Nice adds!
I almost did the same but chickened out.
This has been a great week for many of us.

It’ll happen but will be short lived.
We will likely get a blip then pure carnage.
Buffet dropped 8 Billion from BOA, made me smile.
I really hate BOA more than most banks.
SKRE is my answer for the bad bankers.

Watch for UVIX to fall into our hands when they fake pump the market with all they have left.
The time has come!
Sold my PSQ also for now. I will get it back soon also.
I love volatility and fear in the markets. They are full of corruption and I choose not to participate in the “long”, “investor” or “dollar cost averaging” schemes.
Scalp!
Blessings to those that have ears that hear and eyes that see.
Gl