The Columbia Threadneedle Return to Normal Index Rises to 72% on Improving Activity Data, Increased Vaccinations
May 03 2021 - 9:05AM
Business Wire
The firm’s U.S. index reflects a 6% increase
month-over-month led by an uptick in travel, dining out
Columbia Threadneedle Investments today announced its Return to
Normal Index rose to 72% as of May 1, 2021, reflecting a meaningful
rise from 58% at the beginning of the year. The index tracks and
measures activity data in the U.S. including travel, return to work
and school, brick-and-mortar shopping and eating out, relative to
pre-pandemic levels. It is constructed by the firm’s data
scientists and fundamental research analysts to help augment
investment decision making. Much of what’s driving this month’s
data can be attributed to expanded vaccination eligibility, school
re-openings, return to work, improving weather, and states lifting
restrictions on activities like indoor dining.
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The Columbia Threadneedle Return to
Normal Index as of May 1, 2021.
The firm’s analysis suggests the U.S. has reached an important
immunity range (~70%) through a combination of vaccinations and
prior infections. This will likely lead to a decline in active
cases over the next couple of weeks and lower the incidence of
severe/fatal outcomes, which should accelerate broader economic
activity. The firm’s recovery assumptions, based on projections
made in the fourth quarter of 2020, predict that the index will hit
90% of pre-pandemic levels of activity by August 2021. The upside
case is June pending faster vaccine distribution and changes to
mask mandates, while the downside case is November if variants
continue to spread and vaccine uptake slows.
Paul DiGiacomo, Head of U.S. Equity Research at Columbia
Threadneedle Investments, said: “We are seeing some countries face
a critical rise in cases, while others are experiencing green
shoots that suggest return to normal consumer behavior is swift and
can even exceed pre-Covid levels for a period of time. With that
said, the index could hit ‘normal’ at a point lower than 100 due to
continued changes in behavior like working from home and reduced
business travel.”
DiGiacomo continued, “This index, powered by our firm’s research
intensity, is a valuable tool that provides us with a systematic
and efficient way to monitor real-time data and generate actionable
insights for our investment teams.”
By design, the index is focused on measuring components of daily
life rather than economic indicators like GDP growth. The data
science team aggregates data from sources such as OpenTable, TSA,
and hotel bookings to pinpoint sector-level activity, whether it’s
identifying positive momentum or trouble spots. The index suggests
that we’re still 28% below pre-Covid activity levels, with
brick-and-mortar data showing the most promise at 82% of
pre-pandemic activity and travel and entertainment lagging at 57%
of pre-pandemic activity.
The Columbia Threadneedle Return to Normal Index is updated on a
monthly basis and can be accessed here.
About Columbia Threadneedle Investments
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is a leading global asset
manager that provides a broad range of investment strategies and
solutions for individual, institutional and corporate clients
around the world. With more than 2,000 people, including over 450
investment professionals based in North America, Europe and Asia,
we manage $564 billion1 of assets across developed and emerging
market equities, fixed income, asset allocation solutions and
alternatives.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global asset management
group of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (NYSE: AMP). For more
information, please visit columbiathreeedneedleus.com. Follow us on
Twitter.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) is the
global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of
companies.
1As of March 31, 2021. Includes all assets managed by entities
in the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.
© 2021 Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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Lisa Feuerbach 617.897.9344 lisa.feuerbach@ampf.com
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