NEW YORK, March 11, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The United
States will reach herd immunity threshold when more than 71 percent
of the US population has been exposed to COVID or effectively
vaccinated against it, most likely by mid-summer according to
Oliver Wyman's COVID-19 Pandemic
Navigator. However, we will see significant variations by states,
and should continue to watch out for the potential impact of new
variants of SARS-CoV-2.
States such as New York,
New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island will reach herd immunity first --
as early as the end of May or early June -- because these states
had the highest levels of infection to date (including detected
cases and estimated undetected cases). Maine and Hawaii, which had low levels of infection, are
predicted to be among the last states to reach herd immunity
sometime after August.
"Vaccinations will be critical for each state to reach herd
immunity, especially for states with lower levels of COVID-19
infections to date," said Ugur
Koyluoglu, Oliver Wyman
partner. "Despite having different guidelines on who qualifies to
be vaccinated in each state, the pace of vaccination has been fast
and accelerating across all states, which is good news and
essential for herd immunity. Moving forward the key will be to
ensure enough of the population is willing to be vaccinated."
To watch an animated video to see when each state might reach
herd immunity, please click here.
Unlike many models, Oliver
Wyman's Pandemic Navigator not only forecasts detected
COVID-19 cases, but also estimates undetected
COVID-19 cases historically and into the future. The model tracks
and projects the number of effectively vaccinated individuals to
date as well as the number of people expected to get a vaccine in
the future.
If you are interested in learning more or using any of our data
from the Pandemic Navigator, please contact
francine.minadeo@oliverwyman.com.
About Oliver Wyman
Oliver Wyman is a global leader
in management consulting. With offices in 60 cities across 29
countries, Oliver Wyman combines
deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy,
operations, risk management, and organization transformation. The
firm has more than 5,000 professionals around the world who work
with clients to optimize their business, improve their operations
and risk profile, and accelerate their organizational performance
to seize the most attractive opportunities. Oliver Wyman is a business of Marsh &
McLennan Companies [NYSE: MMC]. For more information, visit
www.oliverwyman.com. Follow Oliver
Wyman on Twitter @OliverWyman.
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SOURCE Oliver Wyman