By Tim Higgins
Apple Inc. is expected to have finished 2020 with its most
profitable quarter ever, fueled by an uptick in higher-end iPhone
sales and a pandemic-induced surge in demand for its laptops and
tablets.
All together, the Cupertino, Calif., company may have generated
more than $100 billion in quarterly sales for the first time. On
Wednesday, Apple is scheduled to release results for the three
months that ended in December, its fiscal first quarter. Analysts
surveyed by FactSet expect profit to have risen 8% to $24 billion
and per-share earnings of $1.41.
The results come during the biggest week for corporate earnings
this quarter and on the same day Tesla Inc. and Facebook Inc. are
also expected to post record profits. Investors will be looking for
signs from Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg that tech stocks can continue to fuel
record growth in the S&P 500.
Apple shares rose 81% in 2020 and are up about 8% this year
through Tuesday on investor enthusiasm around its latest iPhone and
heightened spending on its products from consumers working, going
to school and seeking entertainment while stuck at home. It is one
of a number of tech companies whose outsize performance contrasts
with the millions of Americans out of work amid the global
pandemic.
The holiday quarter is always a closely watched period for
Apple, accounting for about 30% of its annual sales. This time
around, however, it takes on greater emphasis with the arrival of
the iPhone 12 that some analysts and investors were betting would
trigger a record boom similar to when the first large-screen iPhone
was introduced in 2014. That bet, however, was thrown into question
with the spread of the coronavirus last year.
The initial outbreak in China delayed the production of the
flagship phone and pushed back its launch to October from its
typical September debut. Some versions of the new phone didn't
start shipping to customers until November, cutting down the number
of weeks Apple typically has in the period to capture sales ahead
of Christmas.
Those delays have created some uncertainty about how strong of a
period Apple could report. "There is one school of thought that
because of the delayed launch and some supply constraints the
iPhone units may be on the low side," said Mark Stoeckle, chief
executive of Adams Funds, which counts Apple among its largest
holdings. "Although we view this as a possibility, what we believe
strongly is that the iPhone 12 will be very successful in
2021."
Katy Huberty, a Morgan Stanley analyst, is among the more
bullish, calling the iPhone introduction in a note to investors
last week "Apple's most successful product launch in the last five
years."
Despite the delay, analysts on average predict that revenue rose
12% to $102.8 billion compared with a year ago. While Apple no
longer breaks out unit sales, analysts say revenue was likely
helped by demand for the higher-end models of the new
smartphone.
For the iPhone 12, Apple introduced four versions of the lineup,
including a new mini version with a starting price of $699, which
was the same cost as the larger iPhone 11 a year earlier. The
comparably sized iPhone 12 costs about $100 more than its
predecessor, and the biggest and most expensive iPhone 12 Max
begins at $1,099.
In the U.S., the average retail price of the iPhone rose to $873
from $809 a year ago, driven by buyers gravitating to the more
expensive versions, according to a survey of customers by Consumer
Intelligence Research Partners LLC. The improvements in pricing
follow a trend under Mr. Cook to boost the average selling price of
iPhones, squeezing more profit out of the devices as unit sales
have fallen from a peak of 231 million in fiscal 2015.
iPhone revenue might have risen 6.3% to $59.5 billion in the
past quarter, according to analysts. That growth could pale when
compared with other parts of Apple's business, which helped boost
its results last year amid declining iPhone sales. Analysts predict
sales increases of 21% for the Mac lineup and 23% for iPads.
Another closely watched metric will be results of Apple's service
business, which has taken on increased importance in recent
years.
Investors on Wednesday will be looking for signs that the new
iPhone has legs. Analysts predict sales will rise to $74 billion in
the current quarter, up almost 30% compared with a year ago.
Normally, a closely watched part of Apple's quarterly reporting is
its sales guidance, but such forecasts were scrapped last year amid
the uncertainty around Covid-19. Apple hasn't said when it might
return to such disclosures.
The potential for the October-to-December quarter has long
excited analysts and investors who had bet that pent-up demand for
a technologically improved iPhone would spur a buying surge. The
latest iPhone has the capability of accessing the next-generation
cellular network, dubbed 5G, which promises faster internet
speeds.
Cellular carriers have used the arrival of a 5G iPhone to try to
poach new customers. But it is unclear whether that is happening.
Verizon Communications Inc., the largest U.S. cellphone carrier, on
Tuesday reported fourth-quarter results that showed fewer new
customers than analysts had expected. Still, executives said they
remained optimistic about the year ahead.
The lack of killer new programs to take advantage of that 5G
speed and a limited network raised questions among some analysts
about the true interest of the feature as a selling point for the
pricey new phones.
Of the iPhone buyers in Consumer Intelligence's survey, only
seven mentioned 5G. Most said they were motivated in buying the new
iPhone because of problems with their previous phone or because of
general motivations around upgrading.
(Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal, has
a commercial agreement to supply news through Apple services.)
Write to Tim Higgins at Tim.Higgins@WSJ.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 27, 2021 08:14 ET (13:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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