By Ben Foldy and Mike Colias
The worsening virus outbreak is denting sales and store traffic
at U.S. dealerships and leading some car companies to suspend work
at North America factories, early indications of the pandemic's
impact on the U.S. auto industry.
With Americans staying at home, dealers say new-car sales are
tanking and showrooms are quiet, and likely will remain so for a
while.
Auto executives and analysts have slashed their sales forecasts
-- one auto executive sees year-over-year sales falling by half in
April -- upending earlier predictions for another solid year in the
U.S. car business. Car companies are rolling out promotions to
soothe rattled customers, including interest-free loans and delayed
monthly payments.
The U.S. car market, for years the world's most lucrative, has
been a haven for global auto makers since the coronavirus outbreak
began to spread. Sales in China have cratered as factories shut
down and dealerships close. In Europe, auto makers have been forced
to cut production as Italy went on lockdown and the virus spread to
other major markets.
The industry's concerns have now shifted from fretting about
factory disruptions to bigger worries about whether people will buy
cars as much of society shuts down.
"It feels like there is a dark cloud over the dealership," said
Andre Woods, a 40-year-old sales associate at Village Ford in
Dearborn, Mich. "It's got me unnerved, and I don't shake
easily."
On Wednesday, Honda Motor Co. said it would temporarily close
all factories in North America for six days in response to falling
consumer demand and concerns about the outbreak.
Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV have also had to
suspend some factory work in Michigan and Illinois because of the
virus.
Auto dealers tend to carry several months' worth of new-vehicle
stock, so temporary plant shutdowns won't have an immediate impact.
But over time, it could create shortages of certain models and
replacement parts for fixing older vehicles.
For many U.S. dealers, the recent drop off-in buyer traffic was
sharp and sudden, just as the industry was gearing up for the busy
spring-selling season.
Stores in most areas had seen little virus-related slowdown
before last week, when schools began closing and states and the
federal government declared emergencies, said Rhett Ricart, an Ohio
dealer and chairman of the National Automobile Dealers
Association.
"That changed everything," Mr. Ricart said. On a conference call
this week with the heads of dozens of state dealership groups,
those in states with tighter restrictions on gatherings reported
sales or showroom traffic down 25% to 50% in the past few days, he
said.
George Waikem II, general manager at Waikem Ford in Ohio, said
the dealership had a solid sales weekend, but store traffic
evaporated on Monday, a day after the state's governor ordered bars
and restaurants closed to limit the virus' spread. Of the 12 sales
appointments scheduled for the day, all but one canceled, he
said.
The store already has scaled back some, moving its carwash
operation to a skeleton crew and considering other measures if
sales continue to slow, he said. His outlook for the week:
"Probably a ghost town."
Analysts are warning of the first significant drop in U.S.
vehicle sales since 2009, potentially spelling an end to an
unprecedented streak of good times for an industry accustomed to
boom-and-bust cycles. While U.S. car factories for the most part
continue to run, auto makers could be forced to cut production if
sales continue to fall or the virus spreads to workers in the
plants, they say.
The United Auto Workers and the Detroit car companies reached
agreements late Tuesday on coronavirus-mitigation efforts,
including partial shutdowns of U.S. factories to help limit worker
contact and create more time for cleaning.
José Muñoz, chief executive of Hyundai Motor Co.'s North
American division, said he expects the auto maker's U.S. sales to
drop in March by 15% to 20% over the same month last year and then
further slide in April by as much as 50%.
"I see the situation getting worse for the next few weeks," Mr.
Muñoz said, adding that he did not expect a slow recovery until
summer at the earliest.
RBC Capital Markets this week said auto sales could fall to 13.5
million vehicles this year, which would mark a 20% decline from
last year and the lowest level since 2010.
Matthew Welch, who owns Auburn Volkswagen in the Seattle area,
the site of the country's worst outbreak so far, said sales are
down around 30%. He worries what would happen if his store were
forced to temporarily close.
"If we have to pay people to not come in, financially we can't
do that for long," he said. For now, Volkswagen AG is trying to
soften the blow by offering salespeople another $100 for each
vehicle they sell on commission, he said.
Some dealerships, including Auburn Volkswagen, are trying to
lure in wary buyers by putting a bigger emphasis on their
online-sales services, including those that allow shoppers to skip
the showroom and take delivery of their new vehicle at home.
While such services have been slow to catch on -- the
overwhelming majority of car buyers still prefer to make the
purchase in person -- the virus outbreak has sparked more interest
lately, said Rick Case, who heads a chain of 16 auto dealerships in
Ohio, Florida and Georgia. "People are afraid to go out," Mr. Case
said.
Car companies also rushing to offer ways to quell the financial
uncertainty for customers. General Motors Co. is offering buyers
with good credit no-interest loans stretched over seven years, and
allowing them to delay payments for four months. Ford Motor Co.
said its in-house lender would allow customers experiencing
virus-related disruptions to delay payments in some situations.
Hyundai has dusted off a version of a deal it first rolled out
in the throes of the recession in the late 2000s: The company will
cover six months of payments for any new-car buyer who loses their
job after their purchase.
Before the virus hit, analysts were predicting U.S. vehicle
sales would start to cool this year, after topping out at 17
million in 2019 for a record fifth straight year.
Any coronavirus-related hit to the U.S. car market would come at
a bad time for Detroit. GM had hopes for a strong start to 2020
after a 40-day strike at its U.S. factories last fall drained $3.6
billion in profit. At Ford, Chief Executive Jim Hackett has assured
uneasy investors that his turnaround plan would bear fruit this
year following several disappointing quarters.
Write to Ben Foldy at Ben.Foldy@wsj.com and Mike Colias at
Mike.Colias@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2020 11:32 ET (15:32 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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