Economy Week Ahead: Durable Goods, Inflation, Fed Policy
January 26 2020 - 3:29PM
Dow Jones News
By WSJ Staff
In the week ahead, the U.S. Commerce Department publishes data
on durable-goods orders in December, fourth-quarter gross domestic
product and December inflation. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of
England release policy statements.
Tuesday
The U.S. Commerce Department releases December durable-goods
orders. Orders for durable goods -- products designed to last at
least three years -- decreased a seasonally adjusted 2% in November
from the previous month, offering a mixed picture for the
manufacturing sector. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street
Journal forecast durable goods orders grew 0.2% in December.
Wednesday
The Federal Reserve releases its policy statement. Fed officials
have signaled that there is a high bar to be cleared before they
change rates this year. And because little has changed in the
economic outlook since they last met in mid-December, few changes
are likely in their postmeeting statement due Wednesday afternoon.
Likewise, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell isn't expected to signal any
major shift in the central bank's policy path at his press
conference.
Thursday
The Bank of England issues a decision on whether to move its
interest rate. Some investors think the Bank of England will cut
its key interest rate for the first time since August 2016. The
likelihood of such a move declined with the release this past
Friday of a purchasing managers survey that pointed to a rebound in
growth during January after a weak 2019. Some policy makers have
voted for a cut at recent meetings, but it is unclear whether a
majority of the nine rate setters share the view that an insurance
move is needed amid continued uncertainty about the U.K.'s future
relationship with the European Union.
The U.S. Commerce Department releases its first estimate of
fourth-quarter gross domestic product. In the third quarter, U.S.
GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate. Solid consumer spending helped
drive third-quarter growth, though business investment was weak.
Economists will watch to see whether capital spending remained
sluggish in the final months of the year. Economists surveyed by
The Wall Street Journal expect GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in
the fourth quarter.
Friday
The U.S. Commerce Department releases December personal income,
spending and inflation data. Inflation has remained below the
Federal Reserve's 2% target, despite a historically low
unemployment rate and tariffs. Economists will eye this report for
signs that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the price index for
personal-consumption expenditures, is gaining upward momentum.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect core PCE
inflation to be up 1.6% in December from a year earlier.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 26, 2020 15:14 ET (20:14 GMT)
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