Today, Voters' Choice Isn't All About the Economy
January 20 2020 - 10:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Gerald F. Seib
James Carville, the mastermind behind Bill Clinton's successful
1992 presidential campaign, famously drilled home to those around
him a simple message on what the race was all about: "It's the
economy, stupid."
In 2020, it isn't the economy, stupid -- or, at least, not only
the economy.
Traditionally, the nation's economic performance is the most
important factor driving a presidential election. Today, the
economy overall, and certainly the stock market hovering over it,
are strong. As President Trump is buffeted by the winds of the
Senate impeachment trial under way this week, the economy
represents a big safety net for him.
Yet the effects of the good economic news don't cut evenly or
neatly across the land, and political effects simply aren't what
analysts traditionally would have expected.
Some of those benefiting most from the Trump economy reside in
urban areas on the coasts. Yet their hatred of the president burns
hot despite the economic benefits they feel.
Conversely, some of those who are still struggling in the Trump
economy actually reside in the Trump strongholds of rural America
and the working-class neighborhoods of the Rust Belt. Yet their
support of the president seems as staunch as ever.
As that suggests, in the polarized politics of 2020, other
factors now loom large in voters' thinking and preferences.
Cultural values and class are big, if not bigger, factors than is
the economy in determining political attitudes. Trump supporters
are supporters as much because of the president's anti-elite
rhetoric, his fight against undocumented immigrants and what they
see as defense of traditional values as any substantive
achievement; the reverse is true for Trump haters.
And both sides are locked in. By and large, they don't seem
moved by something as large as impeachment, so they aren't likely
to be moved by marginal economic changes between now and the
election. A deep economic slide would be a different story, of
course, but that doesn't seem imminent.
Parsing some economic and political data helps tell this unusual
tale. Broadly speaking, some of the strongest economic growth
during the Trump term has been seen in large, urban counties that
are Democratic strongholds -- and generally hostile to the
president. Data compiled for The Wall Street Journal by the
Economic Innovation Group show that jobs grew by 1.9% in big-city
counties between mid-2017 and mid-2019, and by 1.3% in urban
suburbs.
Conversely, jobs actually shrank in farmland counties that are
home to an older set of Americans, and grew by just 0.4% in
working-class counties. Those places are the backbone of Trump
Country.
Similarly, the economic pain of the president's trade fights
with China has been felt disproportionately in rural areas friendly
to him. The Farm Bureau reports that farm bankruptcies rose 24% in
the 12-month period ending in September 2019. The bureau estimates
that farm income rose to $88 billion in 2019 -- yet 40% of that
income came from government assistance and insurance payments, much
of it to offset losses in the trade wars. Farm debt is estimated at
a record high of $416 billion.
Yet support for the president remains rock solid in small-county
and rural America. In aggregate Wall Street Journal/NBC News
polling through 2019, the president's job-approval rating was 44%
among all Americans -- but a whopping 70% in working-class
counties, and 80% in farmlands counties.
And how about in those more prosperous big-city counties and
close-in urban suburbs? His job-approval rating was 30% and 35%,
respectively.
Obviously, some parts of Trump Country are doing quite nicely,
which is easier to see when zooming out from the county level to
the state level. In the third quarter of 2019, for example, seven
of the top 10 states ranked by economic growth levels were states
Mr. Trump carried in 2016, according to data from the government's
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Texas and Utah were at the top.
Yet some of the strongest Trump states politically also fell
near the bottom of the economic-growth list: West Virginia ranked
48th, North Dakota 45th and Kentucky 40th.
The statewide growth figures suggest one particular concern for
the president. The key upper Midwest swing states of Michigan,
Wisconsin and Ohio fell 43rd, 39th and 36th, respectively, in
third-quarter economic growth. Overall, growth rates in the
Trump-unfriendly Pacific coast region easily outstripped the rates
in the Trump-friendly plains.
The question is how much this matters. Trump supporters love the
president because they believe he hears their grievances and is
fighting for them, and they have demonstrated both patience and
long-term faith in him. Similarly, Trump bashers think the
president is damaging the country in ways more important than
short-term economic readings.
In short, people are far more set in their views than they were
in the Bill Clinton era. "In 1992," says Mr. Carville,
"partisanship was much more elastic than it is now."
Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 20, 2020 10:14 ET (15:14 GMT)
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