By Sudeep Reddy
Paul Volcker, who defeated runaway inflation as Federal Reserve
chairman in the 1980s, establishing the importance to the economy
of an independent central bank, and whose "Volcker Rule" became a
controversial element of postcrisis banking regulation in the Obama
administration, has died at 92 years old.
Mr. Volcker died Sunday at his home following a long illness,
his family confirmed.
Mr. Volcker served in government across Democratic and
Republican administrations for almost three decades in roles
guiding monetary policy and overseeing the nation's financial
system.
Mr. Volcker was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York when U.S. President Jimmy Carter tapped him as Fed chairman in
August 1979, following the brief and unsuccessful tenure of G.
William Miller.
He became one of the most unpopular Fed chairmen in history for
pushing interest rates as high as 20% to break the soaring
inflation that consumed the U.S. economy in the 1970s. But his
actions succeeded, bringing inflation down and making Mr. Volcker
one of the most successful central bankers in history.
Mr. Volcker, the son of a town manager, was born in New Jersey
in 1927. After studying at Princeton University, Harvard University
and the London School of Economics, he joined the New York Fed as
an economist in 1952 and moved to Chase Manhattan Bank five years
later.
He spent several years in the Treasury Department in the early
1960s and then returned to Chase until he was named a Treasury
undersecretary for international monetary affairs at the start of
the Nixon administration. In that position, he played a key role in
ending the U.S. dollar's convertibility to gold in 1971.
Mr. Volcker became Fed chairman in August 1979 after four years
at the New York Fed.
He took office with the economy suffering from the most
sustained high inflation the nation had ever experienced.
Annualized inflation peaked at 14.7% in the 12 months that ended in
both March 1980 and April 1980. The Arab oil embargo of the early
1970s exacerbated other inflationary forces, while loose monetary
policy designed to spur growth pushed prices even higher.
At the same time, economic growth stagnated, creating a
disastrous combination labeled stagflation.
Mr. Volcker believed that getting inflation under control was a
precondition to prosperity. "We were on a track where inflation was
feeding on itself, and the longer it went on the harder it would be
to deal with," he recalled in an interview with The Wall Street
Journal in October 2018. "You can't imagine the United States
running a 20%, a 25% inflation rate. That's what people were scared
of."
The Fed under Mr. Volcker constricted the nation's money supply,
sending interest rates soaring. The U.S. economy experienced two
recessions during his first term with unemployment peaking at 10.8%
in 1983.
Farmers protested, driving tractors to the Fed's headquarters
and blockading a building. Construction workers mailed two-by-fours
to Mr. Volcker, begging him to lower interest rates to boost
housing starts. "Reduce interest rates / Save jobs / Interest much
too high," read one piece of wood.
"But I'm not sorry about it," he said in the Journal interview.
"I don't know any other course of action that would've been
politically feasible or economically feasible."
The task of corralling inflationary pressures proved "a lot
tougher than I would've imagined," Mr. Volcker recalled.
"It took longer," he said. "I was a bit taken aback. The first
actions that were taken, nobody stood up and saluted. They all
said, this is more bullshit from the Federal Reserve."
It wasn't until the summer of 1982 that he felt confident that
he had broken the back of inflation, Mr. Volcker said. The
inflation rate dropped to around 3% by the end of his first
four-year term as Fed chairman.
President Ronald Reagan nominated Mr. Volcker to a second term
in 1983, but also added board members who clashed with the chairman
and briefly outvoted him on one occasion to support a rate cut -- a
rare rebuke.
In his 2018 memoir, "Keeping At It," Mr. Volcker described how
White House Chief of Staff James A. Baker III, with President
Reagan watching silently, ordered the Fed chairman not to raise
interest rates before the 1984 election.
Mr. Volcker, who wasn't planning to lift rates anyway, didn't
tell colleagues or lawmakers about the episode. Mr. Baker has said
he didn't recall that.
In 1987 Mr. Reagan tapped Alan Greenspan to succeed Mr.
Volcker.
After his Fed career, Mr. Volcker became chairman of Wolfensohn
& Co., a New York investment bank, retiring after its merger
with Bankers Trust.
In retirement he was tapped repeatedly for high-profile
international positions. In the late 1990s he headed a committee
investigating dormant accounts and other assets in Swiss banks that
belonged to Holocaust victims. From 2000 to 2005 he chaired the
International Accounting Standards Committee, developing global
accounting practices. In 2004, United Nations Secretary General
Kofi Annan tapped him to chair an independent panel investigating
corruption allegations in the U.N.'s Iraqi oil-for-food
program.
In his early 80s, he regained influence at the White House.
President Barack Obama courted Mr. Volcker early in his 2008
presidential campaign. Mr. Volcker offered occasional advice and
then a key endorsement in January 2008 ahead of the Democratic
primaries, providing credibility for Mr. Obama. After the election,
Mr. Obama named Mr. Volcker chairman of the President's Economic
Recovery Advisory Board, a panel of executives.
Mr. Volcker was seen as a little-used adviser -- but the avid
fly-fisherman indicated he wasn't bothered.
"How they use me is up to them," Mr. Volcker told the Journal in
2009. "I'm conflicted about wanting to go fishing and being
responsive...I might get busier than I want to be."
But his role became clearer over time. After the fall 2008
financial crisis, Mr. Volcker became a leading proponent of
breaking up large banks and banning commercial banks from
higher-risk activities, such as proprietary trading.
His ideas became the foundation of Mr. Obama's plan -- called
the Volcker Rule -- to bar big banks from hedge-fund-like
speculative trading activities. The rule remains crucial in the
eyes of Mr. Volcker.
Unshackling the banks to allow them to have proprietary trading
accounts would ultimately "screw the customers," Mr. Volcker told
the Journal. "Banks are not supposed to do that crap."
The strongest bulwark against the risk of any future crisis
continues to be maintaining prudent regulations, he said.
"It's very hard to mind the store," Mr. Volcker said. "And my
answer to the great concern about another financial crisis is you'd
better have good, tough regulation. Of course, as soon as things
are going better, people try to tear down the regulation."
Mr. Volcker's first wife died in 1998. He married his assistant,
Anke Dening, in November 2009..
--Daniel Kruger contributed to this article.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2019 09:56 ET (14:56 GMT)
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