Bank of Mexico Cuts Rates, as Expected -- Update
November 14 2019 - 4:54PM
Dow Jones News
By Juan Montes
MEXICO CITY -- The Bank of Mexico cut interest rates by a
quarter percentage-point Thursday, as expected, continuing an
easing cycle that started in August when inflation eased towards
the bank's target.
In its third consecutive cut, the Mexican central bank reduced
the overnight interest-rate target to 7.5%, its lowest level since
June of last year. The decision wasn't unanimous, with two of the
five board members voting for a more aggressive half
percentage-point cut.
The cuts mirror recent moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The
monetary easing in the U.S. has given Mexico's central bank
maneuvering room to lower borrowing costs without reducing the
attractiveness of the peso and other peso-denominated assets.
The bank cited tame inflation and the lack of economic growth,
as well as a more stable peso, in cutting rates. Economic growth
for this year and 2020 will likely be below the bank's current
estimates of 0.5% and 2%, the bank said in its policy
statement.
The fact that two members voted for a bigger rate cut indicates
the easing cycle would likely continue, at least at the next policy
meeting in December, analysts said.
Gerardo Esquivel and Jonathan Heath, both appointed by President
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leftist, had voted for a
half-percentage point cut at the September meeting and are seen as
the most dovish board members. The identities of the voters are
disclosed two weeks later in the post-meeting minutes.
Mexico's economy has narrowly avoided slipping into recession so
far this year. Gross domestic product was flat in the first nine
months, following a 0.3% contraction in the first quarter, hit by
declines in private and public investment, and a slowdown in
manufacturing and domestic demand.
The slack in the economy "has widened more than anticipated,"
the bank said.
The central bank stressed the Mexican economy is going through a
period of "significant uncertainty," both external and domestic.
The new trade deal with the U.S. and Canada, which is set to
replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, has yet to be
passed by the U.S. Congress.
The bank also sent a message to the López Obrador
administration, saying the government needs to strengthen the
credit rating outlook for the country and state-oil firm Petróleos
Mexicanos, and to achieve its 2019 fiscal targets and 2020 budget
goals.
Fitch Ratings downgraded Pemex's bonds to speculative status in
June, while Moody's Investors Service has the company at its lowest
investment grade with a negative outlook. Pemex reduced its debt to
$99.6 billion at the end of September from $104.4 billion in June
thanks to a capital injection from the government, but remains the
world's most indebted oil company.
The central bank seemed pleased by the recent performance of
consumer prices, as annual inflation is in line with its target at
3.02% in October. The slowing inflation has to do with lower energy
prices and a stagnant economy crimping demand for goods and
services.
The central bank warned of several risks that could still impact
inflation, including a deterioration of public finances and the
threat of trade tariffs by the U.S., although the bank said the
risk of tariffs has declined.
Write to Juan Montes at juan.montes@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 14, 2019 16:39 ET (21:39 GMT)
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