But Large Differences Across Markets Point at Growing
Concerns
- Euro Area confidence remains steadfast: Germany improves slightly; Greece shows significant gain
- Despite Brexit uncertainty, UK consumer confidence ticks
up
- Survey suggests a continued positive outlook for consumer
spending over the next half year
- More consumers express concerns about the economy, job
security, global warming
NEW YORK, Oct. 9, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference
Board® Global Consumer Confidence Index for the Euro Area was
unchanged at 89 in the third quarter of 2019 (a reading of 100 or
above is considered positive) and even increased by 1 point (from
87 to 88) for the broader European region. Despite further declines
in manufacturing activity and political uncertainties around
Brexit, both Germany and the UK
saw a modest improvement from the previous quarter. Greece experienced a large improvement of 12
points. However, the Euro Area average was held back by large
declines in the Netherlands,
Ireland and Spain. Beyond the Euro Area, confidence in the
broader European region also showed robust gains in the
Ukraine and Russia.
An increasing number of European markets are seeing declines in
confidence. Out of 34 European markets surveyed, 15 saw a decline
in consumer confidence in Q3, of which 8 (out of 16) were in the
Euro Area. This is an increase from the prior quarter, especially
for the Euro Area where only 4 out of 16 markets saw a decline.
"Despite the lack of momentum in overall consumer confidence,
the results suggest a continued positive outlook for consumer
spending over the next half year," says Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist for
Europe at The Conference Board
Europe. "Confident consumers will continue to bolster the economy,
providing a defense against slowing global GDP growth. However, a
continuation of negative news about a possible escalation of
geopolitical uncertainties could further increase anxieties about
job security and erode confidence in the economy."
Globally, despite some softening in large markets – including
China, the US, India and Indonesia – consumers across those major
markets remain confident. Improvements also occurred in
Vietnam, Brazil, Canada and Japan. While Greece saw an exceptionally large increase,
Hong Kong and Peru had the largest declines (14 points
each).
Job Security, Economic Concerns Bear Close Watching; Global
Warming Concerns on the Rise
While job prospects slightly weakened for the Euro Area, more
consumers in the region think this is a good time to spend.
Consumers, on average, did not exhibit greater concern about the
economy.
Fewer consumers in the Euro Area, as well as in North America and the mature economies of
Asia-Pacific, have changed their
spending or saving habits. Also, an increasing share of consumers
in these regions are putting extra cash into stocks/mutual funds,
which suggests some confidence that economic and financial
conditions will not worsen dramatically.
In several European economies, such as Norway, Romania, Switzerland and Poland, there seems to be a gradually waning
interest in spending disposable income on new clothing.
In addition to economic concerns, global warming has been a
rising concern across the world over the past several quarters, but
more so in the Euro Area where the percentage of consumers citing
global warming as their biggest concern increased from 5 percent in
Q2 of 2019 to 12 percent in Q3.
Highlights for Other Regions for the Third Quarter of
2019
Consumers in Asia-Pacific remain among the most
confident globally, but differences across countries have
increased. Consumers in the largest emerging markets (China, India,
Indonesia) are very positive,
despite experiencing some softening in confidence. Other markets,
including South Korea,
Thailand and Singapore, experienced declines in confidence
levels. Hong Kong saw the largest
decline across all regions, the result of political unrest in this
market.
In North America,
optimism about jobs declined modestly, but consumers are unlikely
to curb spending. Canadian consumers have shown improvement in
confidence, following a drop in the previous quarter. However, with
moderate growth prospects and Canada's high exposure to political and trade
risks, consumers are likely to remain vigilant about spending in
the coming months.
While confidence increased slightly in Latin America, divergences among countries
in the region have also increased. With improved sentiments
regarding job prospects and spending, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina experienced the largest increases in
consumer confidence in the region, although confidence in
Argentina remains very low. In
contrast, Peru and Chile saw the second and third largest
declines in consumer confidence globally. Peru is experiencing political instability. In
Chile, there are heightened
concerns about rising unemployment, weakening consumer demand, and
trade disruption in key commodities.
Confidence in Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates declined.
Despite continued optimism about job prospects, consumers across
all six markets surveyed in Africa & the Middle East cited job security as their
top concern, which may spur more cautious spending decisions.
Index is Recent Addition to The Conference Board's
Economic Indicators Program
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is a recent addition to The
Conference Board's portfolio of economic indicators, which includes
the Consumer Confidence Index® for the US, The Conference Board
Measure of CEO Confidence™, the Employment Trends Index™, The
Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® Index, and Leading
Economic Indexes for 12 countries, the Euro Area and globally.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index, based on online responses
from 32,000 consumers in 64 markets throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin
America, the Middle East
and Africa, and North America, was acquired from Nielsen,
which first began the survey in 2005. Nielsen, a leading global
provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and
watch, continues to collaborate with The Conference Board on
conducting the global survey.
The series for the world, the 64 markets covered and regional
aggregates as well as information on several components of the
index, including job prospects, personal finances and spending
intentions, are released on a timely basis in summary format to the
public during the first two weeks of each quarter. Detailed data
series are made available on a complimentary basis to members of
The Conference Board.
Source: October 2019 Global
Consumer Confidence Survey
The Conference Board
About The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey
The Conference Board publishes the quarterly Global Consumer
Confidence Index at 8:00 AM ET. The
Global Consumer Confidence Index Highlights, full report and
technical notes to this series are available on The Conference
Board website.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that
delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are
a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3)
tax-exempt status in the United States.
www.conference-board.org.
About Nielsen
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance
management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of
what consumers watch and buy. Nielsen's Watch segment provides
media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement
services for all devices on which content — video, audio and text —
is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods
manufacturers and retailers the industry's only global view of
retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its
Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also
provides its clients with analytics that help improve performance.
Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100
countries, covering more than 90 percent of the world's population.
For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
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