DALLAS, Aug. 27, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in June to a
level of 117.7. June's reading is 20 points, or 20 percent, above
the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 118.4 points for
all of 2018, 0.1 points above the index average for 2017. May's
index reading was 117.5.
Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index ticked up in
June with an improvement in housing starts. Despite the good news
in the headline number, most of the components of the Michigan
Index are still flat-to-down over the last year. Even with a
moderate gain in June, Michigan's
housing starts sub-index remains well below its 2017 peak.
Nonfarm employment was little changed in June and has shown no
momentum this year. Likewise, unemployment insurance claims have
trended up gradually since late 2018. House prices are still
increasing, but at a reduced rate. Industrial electricity demand
improved in June, but remains below the mid-2016 peak. Auto and
light truck production improved in June, but was well below its
mid-2015 peak. The total state trade index eased in June and is
down from early 2018. Hotel occupancy declined for the third
consecutive month in June and is well below its mid-2018 peak.
State sales tax revenue also declined in June and remains below the
peak from August 2018. In short, the
components of our Michigan Index show that the state economy is
losing momentum. Fortunately for Michigan, U.S. consumer conditions remain
healthy. U.S. consumer confidence was strong again in August as
interest rates came down. This is a positive combination for auto
sales. Business confidence has been challenged by the recent
escalation of the U.S./China trade
war.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables,
as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks
in Michigan, is a subsidiary of
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company
headquartered in Dallas, Texas,
and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business
Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In
addition to Michigan and
Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank