Shrinking U.S. Crude Discount Threatens Exports
August 20 2019 - 12:08PM
Dow Jones News
By Amrith Ramkumar
U.S. oil prices are trading at the smallest discount to global
prices in more than a year -- a reversal that is crimping domestic
exports and could lead to a buildup of crude.
Two new pipelines have started transporting oil from the
prolific Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to the Gulf of
Mexico. That has eased a bottleneck, which has pushed the price of
West Texas Intermediate -- the U.S. price benchmark -- closer to
the global price of Brent crude oil.
The difference between WTI and Brent fell to $3.53 a barrel
Monday, its lowest level since July 2018, according to Dow Jones
Market Data.
The gap was at $3.73 in early Tuesday trading as U.S. crude fell
1.3% to $55.46 a barrel and Brent dipped 0.9% to $59.19. Just a
month ago, Brent was about $7 more expensive than WTI.
Although the new pipelines have supported domestic oil prices
temporarily, they have already started limiting U.S. exports as the
WTI discount shrinks and the two prices converge. The drop in
exports has contributed to a buildup in domestic inventories, an
alarming trend to bullish oil investors that traders say could
exacerbate fears of excess supply if it continues.
"Nobody really wants the barrels when they're $3 cheaper than
Brent," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho
Securities USA. "It could get ugly long term."
Analysts in recent weeks have already been worried that
softening demand and steady production will lead to a glut of
crude. That is caused U.S. prices to trade 16% below their April
peak and Brent to be roughly 20% below its 2019 high.
In one sign that the narrowing spread could hurt domestic
prices, U.S. crude exports averaged about 2.4 million barrels a day
during the three-week period ended Aug. 9, down from an average
above 3 million barrels between the start of May and mid-July,
Energy Information Administration figures show.
With exports dropping and refiners taking in less crude,
domestic stockpiles rose unexpectedly in consecutive weeks through
Aug. 9, according to the most recent data. Inventories typically
drop in the summer amid steady fuel demand during peak travel
season. New figures will be released Wednesday.
Some analysts are wary that a stockpile buildup could send oil
prices falling as it did in late May and early June because even
more pipelines are set to begin transporting crude in the coming
months.
Pipelines that just began moving oil operated by Epic Crude
Holdings LP and Plains All American Pipeline LP are also expected
to ship more crude, also raising concerns about global
oversupply.
"The capacity of these pipelines will dwarf Permian oil
production growth over the coming quarters," Bank of America
Merrill Lynch analysts said in a recent note to clients.
Elsewhere in commodities Tuesday, the most-active Comex gold
futures inched up 0.2% to $1,514.20 a troy ounce, staying near a
six-year high.
Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 20, 2019 11:53 ET (15:53 GMT)
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