DALLAS, July 5, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
California Economic Activity Index increased 0.2 percent in April
to a level of 124.2. April's reading is 26 points, or 27 percent,
above the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged 124.0
points in 2018, 2.8 points above the average for all of 2017.
March's reading was revised to 123.9.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index improved in
April. This is the second straight monthly gain for the index
following four consecutive monthly declines. Five of the eight
index components were positive in April. They included nonfarm
employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing
starts, house prices and the Dow Jones Technology Index. The three
negative components for the month were industrial electricity
demand, state total trade and hotel occupancy. Our California Index
gained momentum heading into spring following a winter slump.
Driving the recent gains was a pick up in housing activity in March
and April. The recent decline in mortgage rates is supporting
demand from opportunistic home buyers. House prices in the
San Francisco and Los Angeles metropolitan areas saw a slight
increase in April. However, it is too early to say that we have
passed the worst of the slowdown in California house price appreciation. We expect
low borrowing costs to be a mild positive for California housing this year, but homebuilders
remain cautious heading into the summer months. The state's housing
market still has to contend with rising unemployment rates across
its major metropolitan areas and the outflow of people and
businesses to other parts of the country. We still expect the
California economy to see a
moderate economic expansion in 2019 anchored by steady job
growth.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank