By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch
The stock-market rally appears to be on amid easy-money
policies
U.S. stock indexes Thursday were set to extend gains to a fourth
straight day near records as the Federal Reserve signaled that
policy easing may be forthcoming to sustain the economy.
How are benchmarks faring?
Futures were surging, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up
234 points, or 0.8%, at 27,769, those for the S&P 500 index
gaining 28.60 points, or 1%, at 2,962.25, while Nasdaq-100 futures
were surging 109 points, or 1.4%, at 7,811.50.
If equity-futures gains hold, the Dow would hit its highest
level since Oct. 3 when the blue-chip benchmark put in a record at
26,828.39, the S&P 500 would trade above an intraday record
last hit on May 1 at 2,954.13, while the Nasdaq Composite Index
sits about 1% short of its May 3 all-time peak.
What's driving the market?
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell strongly implied that the central
bank would cut benchmark interest rates, currently at a range of
2.25%-2.50%, in the coming weeks if the economic outlook buffeted
by U.S.-China trade tensions doesn't show signs of improvement.
"The case for somewhat more accommodative policy has
strengthened," Powell said at a news conference on Wednesday to
discuss the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee's highly
anticipated decision. Policy makers kept rates unchanged as
expected but removed the word "patient" from its updated policy
statement, suggesting that it is ready to act soon.
Although markets have been widely anticipating that Powell &
Co. would respond to growing signs of stress in the economy, the
central bank's posture on looser monetary policy was seen as
providing a strong case for the continued rise in stocks despite
concerns about lurking economic problems.
The central bank remained mostly optimistic about the outlook,
but said inflationary pressures have receded, compelling it to
lower its forecast for PCE inflation in 2019 to 1.5% from 1.8%,
below its 2% target. At the same time, it left its gross domestic
product estimate at 2.1%.
Curiously low inflation has been often cited by FOMC members as
one of the key reasons for its doubts about its monetary policy
path. The Fed next meets July 30-31, while President Donald Trump
is expected to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping on the
sidelines of the coming Group of 20 meeting of well-developed
nations in Japan, where a trade detente could be reached.
See: Recap of Fed decision and Powell press conference
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-decision-and-powell-press-conference-live-blog-and-video-2019-06-19)
Dovish rhetoric from central-bank policy makers across the globe
has helped to send commodity prices, and particularly gold,
rocketing higher, with heightened expectation that rates, which can
undercut appetite for bullion, will could be lowered.
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-japan-joins-fed-ecb-in-signaling-easing-if-needed-keeps-policy-on-hold-for-now-2019-06-20)
and the Bank of England on Thursday, joined the chorus of bankers
including Powell and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi,
signaling a readiness to increase stimulus should global risks at
least partly spurred by trade, worsen.
The BOE said rising tariff tensions
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/boe-warns-on-global-economic-outlook-as-it-holds-rates-steady-11561030288?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3)are
darkening the outlook for the global economy. Kuroda said "we'll of
course consider expanding stimulus without hesitation," he told a
news conference, according to Reuters
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/bank-of-japan-holds-fire-on-policy-joins-fed-in-warning-of-mounting-global-risks-idUSKCN1TL06C).
Which data are in focus?
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/philly-fed-manufacturing-index-weakens-to-just-above-zero-in-june-2019-06-20)in
June fell to just 0.3 after registering a four-month high of 16.6
in the prior month. Any reading above zero indicates improving
conditions. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected an 8
reading.
Initial jobless claims
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-fall-to-216000-no-sign-layoffs-are-on-the-rise-2019-06-20),
a rough way to measure layoffs, fell by 6,000 to 216,000 in the
seven days ended June 15, the government said Thursday.
What are strategists saying?
"The indices are set to open higher along with soaring gold and
oil prices. Mounting geopolitical tensions continue to ignite a
rush to safety while hopes of a rate cut dominate the equity
markets," Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital
Securities.
"Powell's press conference [on Wednesday] showed some
reluctance, but it seems markets are certain the Fed will cut in
July. If data deterioration is worst than expected, calls for a
50-basis cut at the July meeting will grow in the coming weeks,"
wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda in a daily
research note.
Which stocks are in focus
Slack Technologies Inc. is set to make its debut on the New York
Stock Exchange in a highly anticipated direct listing of the
enterprise software company. Here's what you should know
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/slack-non-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-direct-listing-2019-04-26).
How are other assets trading?
Before the U.S. markets opened Wednesday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng
Index rose 1.2% and China's Shanghai Composite Index rallied by
2.4%. Japan's Nikkei 225 , meanwhile, closed up 0.6%, while in
Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 traded 0.6% higher.
Gold futures , meanwhile, surged 2.6%, touching its highest
level since 2013 at $1,384.50 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury
note touched a yield below 2%, while the U.S. dollar, as measured
by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index , fell 0.5% to 96.67.
Crude-oil prices surged amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle
East
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-says-it-shot-down-us-drone-amid-rising-tensions-2019-06-19).
Iran says it shot down a U.S. drone in its airspace.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 20, 2019 09:02 ET (13:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.