By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve officials finish their two-day meeting Wednesday
recognizing they may need to cut interest rates should the economic
outlook darken. The question is whether that moment has arrived or
if they need more information before deciding.
Recent economic data paint a mixed picture, with consumer
spending still solid, but with manufacturing, inflation and global
growth having slowed even before the recent escalation in trade
tensions.
Policy makers are considering whether their short-term benchmark
rate, which has been in a range of 2.25% to 2.5% this year, is
curbing economic growth more than they expected, especially if
uncertainty over U.S. trade policy chills business investment and
weakens corporate profits.
Broadly speaking, the case for cutting rates is stronger than
when officials met April 30-May 1. Back then, they were more
optimistic on the economy and their make-no-moves policy stance,
largely because a U.S.-China trade deal appeared in sight.
Since then, President Trump increased tariffs on China as
negotiations stalled and threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico. He
later suspended the threat, subject to a review of Mexico's efforts
to curb migration, sowing new uncertainty about trade policy.
The episodes rattled business confidence and led bond investors
to begin predicting Fed rate cuts beginning at its July 30-31
meeting. The Mexico tariff threat also illustrated the difficulty
Fed officials face in forecasting economic outcomes given Mr.
Trump's mercurial trade policies.
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump kept up pressure on the Fed to cut rates
even though Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank
doesn't take political considerations into account.
"Let's see what he does," Mr. Trump said in response to a
question about whether the White House would seek to replace Mr.
Powell as Fed chairman. Mr. Powell has said he won't leave his
position before his current term expires in 2022.
The choices at this meeting are between cutting rates now if
officials see the economic outlook worsening or holding off and
cutting next month if the picture grows darker. There are strong
arguments on both sides.
Some Fed officials have said they would prefer to wait until the
July 30-31 meeting to see if data and political events provide a
stronger signal about whether the economy needs more stimulus. They
have signaled reluctance to respond to trade uncertainty before
next week's G-20 summit in Japan, where the U.S. and China could
put trade talks back on track.
Mr. Trump on Tuesday delivered a reminder of the fluid trade
situation when he announced plans for a meeting next week with
Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Osaka summit. The two leaders
spoke by phone Tuesday.
"I want to take a little bit more time...because some of these
recent events could be reversed," said Dallas Fed President Robert
Kaplan in a June 4 interview, before Mr. Trump decided to suspend
the tariffs on Mexico.
On the other hand, officials are mindful of research finding
that when their policy rate is historically low, leaving less room
to cut it in a downturn, they should move more quickly to respond
to any economic shakiness.
If officials think the risks of more trade disputes are unlikely
to diminish or that the economic data are unlikely to improve
before their July meeting, they could argue there is less benefit
and more risk to waiting to cut rates.
Low inflation readings coupled with rising risks to growth from
trade frictions may warrant lower rates, said St. Louis Fed
President James Bullard in comments to reporters June 3.
"The previous narrative was that deals were just around the
corner...and now it looks like trade deals are not around the
corner," he said. "It's the global trade regime uncertainty factor
that is adding impetus to the case for a rate cut," he said.
Fed officials are also wrestling with questions regarding how
their decision last year to raise their benchmark rate above the
inflation rate rippled through the economy.
Inflation slowed this year, rather than holding at the Fed's 2%
target as officials expected late last year. Excluding volatile
food and energy categories, prices rose 1.6% in April from a year
earlier, according to the Fed's preferred gauge. Global commodity
price declines indicate weaker growth abroad could continue to hold
down prices.
Fed officials pay especially close attention to businesses' and
households' expectations of future inflation because they believe
these expectations strongly influence actual inflation. The
University of Michigan's June consumer survey showed expectations
of annual inflation over the next five to 10 years fell to 2.2%, an
all-time low for the 40-year series.
While job growth this year has slowed to levels in line with
what Fed officials have expected, some data hint at more potential
weakness if economic activity decelerates further. Year-over-year
growth in total weekly hours worked for nonsupervisory workers
slowed to 1.1% in May, from 2.8% in January, and manufacturing
overtime hours are 6.7% below the year-earlier level, according to
Deutsche Bank.
Other major central banks are lowering rates or considering cuts
to combat weaker global growth. On Tuesday, European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi signaled the bank could roll out new
stimulus next month, and several Asian central banks have eased
policy this year. Australia cut its policy rate this month for the
first time in three years.
Fed officials could cite signs of cooling global momentum if
they cut rates this week.
If they hold off, markets will parse Powell's comments in his
postmeeting press conference Wednesday to see if they bolster or
push back against market expectations of a July rate cut. "A lot
will depend on the tone of the announcement and the tone of the
press conference," said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice
chairman.
At a minimum, officials appear likely to replace language in
their policy statement that since January has said they would be
patient in making further rate changes. The language signaled a
stance with no bias toward moving rates up or down. They are also
likely to acknowledge that risks to economic growth have risen.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2019 19:27 ET (23:27 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.