Global Government Bonds Rally as ECB Signals Easing Soon
June 18 2019 - 11:50AM
Dow Jones News
By Daniel Kruger
Government-bond yields around the world fell to fresh lows for
the year Tuesday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi
said the bank could soon add stimulus to support the region's
economy.
The yield on the U.S. government's 10-year Treasury note, which
falls as bond prices rise, dropped to as low as 2.017%, according
to Tradeweb, after fresh economic data offered signs that growth
was further decelerating in Europe, adding to concerns that it
could spill over to the U.S.
Investors watch the 10-year Treasury yield as a barometer for
the health of the U.S. economy because it helps set borrowing costs
for everything from mortgages to corporate loans.
The decline is happening at the same time the Federal Reserve is
starting a two-day meeting in Washington. Investors have increased
bets in the past month that policy makers will cut interest rates
this year, perhaps more than once, on signs of persistent low
inflation and slowing global growth.
The shift in ECB policy sent an important signal about the level
of concern among officials about sluggish growth prospects in
Europe, where export-driven economies have been hampered by global
trade tensions. An ECB decision to add stimulus could give Fed
officials added impetus to cut interest rates in the near future,
some investors and analysts said.
"A coordinated response by central banks can be very effective,"
said Edward Al-Hussainy, a government bond and currency strategist
at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. "To the extent the Fed is
considering easing policy, doing it in conjunction with the ECB
will increase its effectiveness."
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly in favor of Fed rate cuts
in recent weeks as signs that trade tensions with China may take
longer to resolve have dented expectations that officials on both
sides were nearing an agreement on a deal that could improve the
outlook for global trade and growth.
Fed-funds futures, which investors use to bet on the path of
central-bank policy, show an about 90% probability that officials
will cut rates at their meeting next month, according to CME Group
data. A month ago the odds were roughly one in four.
Longer-term government bond yields tend to fall when investors
are worried about the economy. The retreat of 10-year Treasury
yields from multiyear highs hit last year have rattled financial
markets and sparked fears of a coming recession.
Yields on Treasurys rose off their lows after President Donald
Trump said on Twitter that he plans to have "an extended meeting
next week" with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in
Japan, spurring hopes that there could be progress on persistent
trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was recently 2.068%,
down from 2.086% Monday. Its lowest close this year was 2.085%
earlier this month.
Yields on government debt across Europe were on track to fall to
record lows, as investors bet that the ECB could lower interest
rates further below zero or resume asset purchases that policy
makers had brought to an end at the start of the year.
The dollar rose against the euro, though both were broadly
weaker as yield-hungry investors flocked to emerging-market
currencies whose central banks have set interest rates at higher
levels, offering greater returns.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a
basket of 16 others, declined by less than 0.1% to a recent 90.78.
The dollar rose 0.3% against the euro. It was weaker against
higher-yielding currencies, falling 0.5% against the Mexican peso
and 0.7% versus the Brazilian real.
Gains in safe government securities extended earlier after the
European Union said exports from the eurozone to the rest of the
world fell 2.5% in April from the month before and the German ZEW
Index, a gauge of financial market confidence, retreated in
June.
Write to Daniel Kruger at Daniel.Kruger@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2019 11:35 ET (15:35 GMT)
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