Copper Prices Approach Correction Territory as Growth Worries Spread
May 24 2019 - 8:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Amrith Ramkumar
Copper prices have erased nearly all of their gains for the year
and are on the brink of entering correction territory, a signal
that some investors are still wagering on a continued growth
slowdown overseas.
An industrial metal heavily used in construction and
manufacturing, copper is closely tied to the health of the world
economy because shifts in global growth tend to swing demand.
Prices surged to start the year amid optimism the U.S. and China
would soon resolve their trade fight but have slid in recent days,
with many analysts wary that escalating tariffs will crimp economic
activity.
Those worries have also hurt shares of multinational industrial
companies and chip makers reliant on Chinese demand for their
products, though optimism about U.S. economic growth has kept U.S.
stocks relatively steady. That faith hasn't helped copper much,
because China -- the world's second-largest economy -- accounts for
about half of global demand.
Prices fell in four consecutive sessions through Wednesday to
their lowest level since late January and edged higher Thursday.
They are almost 10% below their April peak, putting the metal near
correction territory, and now up just 2.2% for the year.
The latest drop has followed the U.S. raising tariffs on roughly
$200 billion of Chinese imports and releasing plans to levy duties
on a further $300 billion in imports. Beijing has said it plans to
lift duties on about $60 billion of U.S. imports starting June
1.
At the same time, President Trump has hinted that tariffs could
be removed if the two sides reach a deal, and some analysts expect
China to increase stimulus efforts to spur growth.
Updates on trade "will probably be a seesaw for the next couple
of weeks at least, if not even longer," said George Mateyo, chief
investment officer at Key Private Bank.
In a sign of growing investor concern about global growth, hedge
funds and other speculative investors have steadily lifted bearish
bets on copper in recent weeks. That trend has pushed the
difference between bullish bets and bearish ones to its lowest
level since late January, according to Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data through May 14. The latest figures for the week
ended Tuesday are scheduled to be released later Friday.
Analysts are also looking ahead to coming overseas economic-data
releases to gauge the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese
imports that took effect earlier this month. Figures showed Chinese
factory activity slowed sharply in April after a rebound in March,
and data Thursday showed the European economy cooling after a
strong start to 2019.
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Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 24, 2019 08:14 ET (12:14 GMT)
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