Oil Falls on Fresh Fears of Oversupply Worries
December 17 2018 - 12:02PM
Dow Jones News
By Amrith Ramkumar and Christopher Alessi
-- Oil prices inched higher Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar
that makes commodities cheaper for overseas buyers.
-- West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil standard, were
down 1.4% at $50.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange.
-- Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading down 0.4%
at $60.02 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
HIGHLIGHTS
Growth Fears: Lukewarm economic data around the world and a
recent stock-market rout have caused anxiety that oil demand will
be weaker than anticipated. After oversupply fears started the
recent oil-price rout -- sending benchmarks down about 30% from
their multiyear highs -- anxiety about consumption has now
exacerbated recent swings in crude, analysts said.
"There's still an ugly flavor out here," said Donald Morton,
senior vice president at Herbert J. Sims & Co., who oversees an
energy trading desk. "No one is willing to step up and call it a
bottom yet."
Many oil analysts now expect demand to grow less than previously
expected, meaning supply could exceed demand even with a recent
production cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and its allies. Robust output figures from the U.S. and
Russia also continue to pressure prices.
Negative Sentiment: Hedge funds and other speculative investors
have pushed net bets that U.S. crude prices will climb to their
lowest level since August 2016, according to Commodity Futures
Trading Commission figures. Speculative interest in Brent has also
been tepid, analysts say, leading to choppy trading that has
frustrated traders in recent weeks.
"It's the combination of the uncertainty of whether the
production cuts are enough and lingering doubts about demand
growth," said Eugene McGillian, vice president of market research
at Tradition Energy.
The move lower came even after a weaker dollar had helped buoy
prices by making dollar-denominated oil cheaper for overseas
buyers. The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency
against a basket of 16 other currencies, fell 0.2%.
INSIGHT
OPEC+: Oil market participants continue to debate whether a
decision to cut output by the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries and its partner producers, led by Russia, will
be enough to rein in a burgeoning supply glut and bolster
prices.
As part of the deal, OPEC and its allies plan to curb crude
production by a collective 1.2 million barrels a day starting next
month. But while news of the deal initially bolstered crude by as
much as 5%, prices have since retreated and are hovering around
levels from before the OPEC+ agreement.
"The truth of the matter is that fresh OPEC+ cuts will not go
far enough to overturn the incumbent supply surplus," said Stephen
Brennock, analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd.
"Accordingly, oversupply concerns will continue to stifle buying
pressures," he added.
AHEAD
The U.S. Energy Information Administration Monday is slated to
release its monthly drilling productivity report. The agency will
also releases weekly U.S. oil inventory data Wednesday
Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com and
Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 17, 2018 11:47 ET (16:47 GMT)
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