Macron, Facing Protests, Departs From EU Fiscal Strictures
December 11 2018 - 3:18PM
Dow Jones News
By Matthew Dalton and Marcus Walker
PARIS -- French President Emmanuel Macron's plan to defuse
antigovernment protests with tax cuts risks bending European Union
rules on budget discipline, threatening to anger Italy and other
countries in the bloc that complain France gets special
treatment.
Mr. Macron wants to hand cash to minimum-wage workers and cut
taxes on payrolls and pensions to boost the meager purchasing power
of lower-income French -- one of the core complaints of the gilets
jaunes, or yellow vest, movement that has swept the nation and
threatened his presidency.
Mr. Macron also pressed employers that can afford it to pay
year-end bonuses to their workers. Several large businesses
immediately stepped up. Advertising giant Publicis said it would
give staff a EUR1,000 ($1,140) bonus, and telecommunications
company Altice said it would also pay bonuses. The CEO of
telecommunications group Orange said it would soon propose measures
in response to Mr. Macron's appeal.
The embattled president's fiscal concessions risk hurting his
credibility as a standard-bearer for the EU and, more broadly, a
rules-based international order. Mr. Macron ran for office
promising to improve France's fiscal discipline, in part to
persuade Germany to back his proposals for a deeper union among
eurozone countries.
Having largely failed to win Germany over, he now faces pressure
to follow a more traditional domestic policy: loosening the purse
strings to the limit of EU rules or beyond to shore up his
popularity.
"What he promised last night is a clear violation of European
fiscal rules, intentionally so," said Zsolt Darvas, an economist at
the Bruegel think tank in Brussels.
A bigger French deficit would embolden Italy's EU-skeptic
government, which is currently wrestling with Brussels over its own
expansive budget. Italian politicians including the far-right
Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini have accused the EU of
hypocrisy by indulging France but seeking to punish Italy.
Accommodating Mr. Macron while taking a firmer stance with Rome
risks deepening Italy's alienation from the project of European
integration that it helped found.
"The task now is to avoid a big political crisis in Europe,"
said Xavier Rogat, an economics professor at Sciences Po in Paris.
The pro-EU liberal internationalist Mr. Macron and the EU-skeptic
nationalist Mr. Salvini represent two poles of the current
political struggle over Europe's future. Mr. Salvini and other
antiestablishment figures want a looser EU and more room for
national divergence.
Mr. Salvini said on Tuesday he hopes the gilets jaunes achieve
all their goals, and dismissed Mr. Macron as "a laboratory product"
created by Europe's establishment to block change from the
nationalist right.
French officials Tuesday sought to assure the EU executive, the
European Commission, that Mr. Macron's plan won't push next year's
deficit much over 3% of gross domestic product, the threshold
deemed excessive by EU treaties.
Before Monday's announcement, France was targeting a deficit of
2.8% next year. Mr. Macron's new measures will cost EUR10 billion,
or around 0.4% of GDP, according to French Finance Minister Bruno
Le Maire. He said the government would look to cut spending on
public administration to offset the new fiscal measures. "We want
to stick to our European commitments," Mr. Le Maire told reporters.
"We will do our best to reduce public spending for the sake of
being as close as possible to the 3% [deficit rule]."
The Commission says Italy's spending plans would raise the
country's deficit to nearly 3% of GDP next year and over 3% in
2020. Italy's public debt stands at 131% of GDP, compared with
France's 99%.
The commission is charged with reviewing EU countries' annual
budgets and can demand changes to budgets that are likely to result
in excessive deficits. It can also fine governments that don't
listen, though that power has never been used.
The commission will probably tolerate a small and temporary
breach of 3% by France, an EU official said.
French officials are exploring changes to corporate tax credits
previously enacted by the government, which are set to boost the
deficit temporarily in 2019 but to bring it down in 2020.
Still, Mr. Macron's concessions this week appear to challenge
the EU's fiscal compact, signed at the height of the eurozone debt
crisis, and which requires governments to run a "structural"
deficit, adjusted for the economic cycle and one-time effects, of
no more than 0.5% of GDP.
Countries with structural deficits above 0.5%, such as France
and Italy, are supposed to make annual reductions toward the
target. Mr. Macron's plan is likely to increase France's structural
deficit, the EU official said.
That is a problem for Brussels as it fights against the rising
structural deficit in Italy sought by Mr. Salvini and his governing
allies.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 11, 2018 15:03 ET (20:03 GMT)
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