Investors say focusing on finalist cities is good way to bet on
places with young tech talent
By Shayndi Raice and Keiko Morris
This article is being republished as part of our daily
reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S.
print edition of The Wall Street Journal (October 23, 2018).
Plenty of real-estate investors are poised to buy property in
whichever city Amazon.com Inc. picks for its second headquarters.
Some aren't waiting.
Speculators are raising funds to invest in real estate near the
winning site -- wherever that may be -- or are gathering cash
commitments so they can pounce immediately after the winner is
announced. Others are buying up shares of a real-estate firm that
owns much of the property in a north Virginia city that many
consider a leading contender.
These investors say that focusing on potential Amazon sites is a
way to bet broadly on fast-growth areas, especially those with a
growing pool of tech talent.
"HQ2 is guaranteed to meet three criteria: tech job growth, tech
job growth and tech job growth," said Bryan Copley, co-founder of
the Seattle-based real-estate startup CityBldr, using a shorthand
for Amazon's second headquarters.
Mr. Copley is raising $100 million for a fund that will buy
residential property in Seattle, Los Angeles and the city that wins
Amazon's second headquarters.
The Seattle-based online giant said last year it was looking to
invest $5 billion in a second headquarters that could employ up to
50,000 people over two decades. After 238 cities and towns applied,
Amazon narrowed a list to 20 finalists in January.
The list of 20 finalists includes cities like New York and Los
Angeles as well as smaller cities attracting tech talent, including
Denver, Pittsburgh and Nashville, Tenn.
The rush to invest in the winning city is a result of Amazon's
unorthodox approach to its search for a second home. Amazon chose a
highly public process, which is leaving room for speculators to
place their bets. Usually, companies keep the search quiet for as
long as they can, economic-development analysts say.
Since metro areas are pitching specific sites and even
suggesting certain properties for Amazon's new headquarters, it is
as if they have been drawing up maps for real-estate buyers to
target. Some investors are investing in sites they think Amazon
might desire; others are betting on ripple effects such as
increased demand in neighborhoods around a new headquarters.
Mr. Copley says that with proprietary software, he can pick the
most underutilized properties in any city. It will take him five
minutes to narrow down the best 500 multifamily investments once
Amazon announces a winning city, he added. Then he plans to make
offers on many of them and hope he can get at least a few to
bite.
Others are placing their wagers now. Ryan Dobratz, co-lead
portfolio manager of Third Avenue Real Estate Value Fund, thinks
the greater Washington, D.C., area has the best shot of winning, in
particular the Crystal City neighborhood of Arlington, Va.
His firm has been buying shares of JBG Smith Properties, a
real-estate investment trust that owns much of the commercial real
estate on the Crystal City site that northern Virginia officials
proposed to Amazon. JBG declined to comment.
JBG's concentration in Crystal City likely has powered its stock
higher despite a soft office market for the area overall, according
to a report from research firm Green Street Advisors. JBG's Crystal
City holdings make it "the most 'direct' way to play the Amazon
lottery among office REITs," the report said.
Sales-price growth on residential properties in 10 of the
counties on Amazon's shortlist increased 7% year-to-year in July,
accelerating from a 4% rise in July 2017, according to Realtor.com.
(The website is operated by News Corp, owner of The Wall Street
Journal, under license from the National Association of
Realtors.)
Pittsburgh's selection as a finalist helped boost a market that
already had interest from investors, said David Cunningham, a
retired firefighter and owner of rental properties in the Hazelwood
neighborhood, which is near a former steel-production site
considered a possible Amazon location.
Mr. Cunningham said he has received many more calls from
interested buyers since Amazon announced the finalists, and the
offers have never been higher. Amazon "blew the dust off
Hazelwood," he said, adding there are other factors, like proximity
to universities and downtown.
Other high-profile tech headquarters searches have triggered a
real-estate shopping spree. Uber Inc. bought the old Sears building
in Oakland, Calif., in 2015 and turned it into a
356,000-square-foot office space, Uptown Station, that was planned
as a new headquarters for the ride-sharing firm. It was a big win
for Oakland, which was starting to attract large technology
employers from San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Investors
followed.
Uber never moved in and sold the building for about $180 million
in 2017, a scandal-plagued year for the company. Still, many other
investments in Oakland have paid off as the area has continued to
grow.
Erick Quay, who runs a hedge fund in New York called Quay
Capital, plans to invest within the first six months of an Amazon
announcement. He is betting prices won't move much right away, and
said he would pass on investing in the winner if he doesn't find
the right opportunity.
Craig Kinzer thinks gaming Amazon's headquarters is too risky.
The founder of real-estate firm Kinzer Partners said he heard a
pitch from CityBldr's Mr. Copley and found it compelling. But he
ultimately declined to invest.
"Real estate is local," he said. "You can be a national company,
but ultimately it is about really understanding what's on the
ground locally."
Write to Shayndi Raice at shayndi.raice@wsj.com and Keiko Morris
at Keiko.Morris@wsj.com
Corrections & Amplifications A photo in an earlier version
of this article showed 1851 Crystal Drive, not 241 18th St. S. as
stated. The article has been updated with a photo showing another
building, owned by JBG Smith Properties, nearby. (Oct. 22,
2018)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 23, 2018 02:47 ET (06:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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