Federal Reserve Readies Third Interest-Rate Increase of 2018
September 26 2018 - 5:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Nick Timiraos
The Federal Reserve is prepared to raise short-term interest
rates by a quarter percentage point after its two-day policy
meeting concludes Wednesday, the eighth such move since late 2015.
Officials will also present revised projections of future rate
moves along with their outlook for inflation, employment and
growth.
The central bank releases its policy statement and the forecasts
-- the so-called dot plot -- at 2 p.m. EDT. Fed Chairman Jerome
Powell takes media questions at 2:30 p.m. Here is a look at what to
watch:
The Destination
In June, a narrow majority of officials projected the Fed would
raise rates a total of four times in 2018. That group is likely to
grow this week as the Fed lifts its benchmark federal-funds rate
for a third time this year, to a range between 2% and 2.25%.
The bigger question is how the rate path next year has evolved
and how Mr. Powell might characterize the balance of risks at the
press conference.
One camp of officials says so long as unemployment keeps falling
farther below the level that they project is consistent with stable
prices, the Fed will need to raise rates to prevent the economy
from overheating. This is an uncontroversial strategy because it is
what the central bank always does at this point in an
expansion.
Another camp argues for a relatively radical departure from this
norm. These officials say if inflation doesn't appear to be
accelerating beyond 2%, the Fed could stop raising rates after
reaching a "neutral" setting designed to neither spur nor slow
growth.
Mr. Powell hasn't revealed his preference, but in a speech last
month he seemed sympathetic to treating the traditional models more
skeptically than some of his colleagues or staff.
Fuzzying Up the Forward Guidance
Fed officials debated at their most recent meeting whether it
was time to jettison language from their policy statement that for
years has described rates as "accommodative," meaning they are low
enough to stimulate growth.
Removing the language later, when rates are much closer to a
potentially neutral level, risks sending a misleadingly precise
signal about where such a setting lies. Mr. Powell has shown he is
wary of suggesting the Fed has pinpoint accuracy over such
estimates, which are inherently uncertain.
Still, there may be little urgency to remove the phrase now
because rates are still projected to be accommodative after this
week's increase. Dropping the language risks suggesting officials
have little need to raise rates further. At the same time, Mr.
Powell could use his press conference to clarify that this isn't
the case.
The New Dots
Wednesday's dot plot will have a few new twists. Vice Chairman
Richard Clarida will attend his first Fed rate-setting meeting and
submit projections. John Williams will contribute projections for
the first time as New York Fed president, after many years doing so
as San Francisco Fed chief. While the San Francisco Fed has named
Mary Daly as its new president, she takes office next week, so Mark
Gould, the bank's operating chief, will represent the regional
reserve bank.
The new dot plot also will be the first to present officials'
projections of the economy and interest rates in 2021. To be sure,
that is a long way off and the out-year projections tend to shed
little new light on the policy path.
But the 2021 projections could clarify a key piece of the Fed's
policy narrative: How does the central bank plan to guide the
unemployment rate up to its so-called natural rate -- the level at
which inflation neither slows nor accelerates? Officials in June
projected this rate to be around 4.5%. U.S. unemployment was 3.9%
in August.
Global Divergence
Financial turbulence abroad represents the biggest risk to the
Fed's plans. Officials could hold off on future rate increases if a
stronger dollar causes greater upheaval in emerging markets or
trade tariffs lead to a slowdown in China that sparks global market
selloffs.
Watch Mr. Powell's level of concern in the press conference
keeping in mind both these potential risks and a related one --
that the Fed exacerbates this turbulence by raising rates steadily
while other major central banks do not. So far, emerging-market
turmoil has been limited to Argentina and Turkey, whose economies
have idiosyncratic problems. But there is no law that says crises
that begin in vulnerable markets stay contained to these
places.
Operating Matters
Mr. Powell could face questions about two longer-term decisions
that are ripe for debate. At the Fed's July 31-Aug. 1 meeting,
officials agreed to take up an important technical discussion this
fall around their framework for implementing monetary policy. This
is an issue separate from how high or low they set rates, and it
could have important ramifications for how much longer the central
bank winds down its $4.2 trillion balance sheet of bonds and other
assets.
Meantime, a growing minority of Fed bank presidents have said
they would like the Washington-based Fed governors to increase the
levels of loss-absorbing capital that large private-sector banks
must raise, using a rule known as the countercyclical capital
buffer. Mr. Powell hasn't expressed a strong opinion on the
matter.
Write to Nick Timiraos at NickTimiraos@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 26, 2018 05:14 ET (09:14 GMT)
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