Oil Continues to Soar on Supply Concerns
September 25 2018 - 5:34PM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Alessi and Dan Molinski
Oil prices rose further Tuesday, building on large gains from a
day earlier after OPEC and its production allies decided to
maintain their current production targets.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery ended 0.3% higher at
$72.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking its
highest closing value since early July. Brent crude, the global
benchmark, rose 0.8% to $81.87 a barrel, its highest closing price
since Nov. 10, 2014.
Meeting in Algiers on Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries and its production allies, led by Russia,
reiterated that they want to adhere to current production quotas
first implemented at the start of 2017. That means continuing a
gradual ramp-up in production as the producers had agreed on at the
start of the summer in an effort to bring down over-compliance with
the initial agreement. However, the producers declined to announce
specific plans to raise production further, seemingly defying calls
by President Trump for the cartel to increase output to put a cap
on prices -- sending prices soaring on Monday.
Mr. Trump reiterated at a United Nations speech in New York on
Tuesday that he feels OPEC is "ripping off the rest of the world"
by pushing oil prices higher. Markets didn't react much to those
remarks.
OPEC and Russia's public comments "showed comfort and
satisfaction with today's price levels and little willingness to
additionally boost output, " said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro
and commodity research at Julius Baer. "Supply concerns rise as the
Iran embargo nears, which supports oil prices," he added.
Tyler Richey, commodities analyst at the Sevens Report in Palm
Beach Gardens, Fla., said other factors are providing additional
upward momentum to prices.
"The perfect combination of an easing dollar, clarity -- but not
necessarily progress -- on trade relations between the U.S. and
China, expectations of declining U.S. production into year-end,
U.S. sanctions on Iran, and most recently, a Trump-defiant
OPEC-plus-Russia group deciding against an immediate increase to
collective production targets to offset declining production
elsewhere, have been the key pillars behind the rally across the
energy complex," Mr. Richey said.
Oil investors on Wednesday will turn their attention away from
OPEC and back to the U.S., when the Energy Information
Administration is due to release its weekly oil report. Analysts
surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are expecting, on average, a
1.3-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, which
could add to the market's bullish tenor. U.S. crude stockpiles saw
a counterseasonal decrease in last week's report that put the total
at 394 million barrels, the lowest since February 2015.
"The glut is gone," said Phil Flynn at Price Futures in Chicago,
referring to oversupply problems in a recent oil-price downturn
that saw U.S. oil inventories as high as 536 million barrels in
March 2017. "Global oil prices are surging because we are now
facing a market that is undersupplied."
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late
Tuesday that its own data for the week showed a 2.9-million-barrel
increase in crude supplies, a 949,000-barrel rise in gasoline
stocks and a 944,000-barrel decrease in distillate inventories,
according to a market participant.
The U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports are set to take
effect Nov. 4, raising concerns about a global supply crunch toward
the end of the year. Saudi Arabia -- the de facto head of OPEC --
and Russia have indicated they can produce more to fill the gap,
despite concerns over dwindling spare capacity. But there is still
widespread disagreement on how the cartel and its allies should
contain crude prices once the Iran sanctions take effect.
Among refined products, gasoline futures for October delivery
rose 0.6% to $2.0677 a gallon. Diesel futures rose 0.8%, to $2.3053
a gallon.
Write to Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com and
Dan Molinski at Dan.Molinski@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2018 17:19 ET (21:19 GMT)
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