Economic Confidence Rises Among Lower-Income Americans
June 18 2018 - 12:53PM
Dow Jones News
By Sarah Chaney
Economic confidence among lower-income Americans has taken a
recent leap, the latest evidence that benefits of the economic
expansion are reaching a broader swath of workers.
Sentiment among lower-income consumers still trails that of
their higher-earning counterparts. But the gap has narrowed in
recent months.
In the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index,
confidence among households in the bottom third income tier has
risen 11.4 points since February, an IHS Markit analysis of
sentiment figures shows. Meanwhile, sentiment among Americans in
the highest third of incomes has fallen more than eight points.
The recent improvement in confidence for lower-income Americans
coincides with a falling unemployment rate and faster wage growth
for workers at the margin. Among those experiencing labor-market
gains are the less-educated and African-Americans, who trailed
behind other groups for much of the economic expansion beginning in
mid-2009.
A tightening labor market and increased take-home pay from the
tax cut passed in December are likely translating into a renewed
sense of confidence among lower-income Americans. These factors
outweigh any decreased confidence stemming from a rise in gas-pump
prices, said Chris Christopher, IHS Markit executive director.
"You say to a lower-income person..'Hey, you have [an] extra
$50, $100 a month, that really makes a big difference. With that,
they'll go out to eat more," Mr. Christopher said.
Overall consumer sentiment rose after the election of President
Donald Trump and has remained strong. The University of Michigan on
Friday said its preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in June
rose, propelled by Americans' greater optimism toward the economic
situation.
The IHS Markit analysis of the sentiment data shows confidence
has fallen about seven points among households with incomes of more
than $75,000 since February. Over the same period, optimism has
risen eight points for households with incomes of less than
$75,000.
Toncé Jackson-Ayanleye, 47 years old, is feeling increasingly
positive about her job and income. She worked in positions making
about $10 an hour before she graduated from a manufacturing
career-training program and landed a job as a welder at Freedman
Seating Co. in Chicago last spring. Ms. Jackson-Ayanleye's income
rose 50%.
"I'm making far more money than I have ever made with any job,"
said Ms. Jackson-Ayanleye. "What the future holds, I really can't
say. I just want to be prepared and ready for whatever comes my
way. The sky's the limit."
Workers nationwide who didn't share in the economic gains
earlier in the recovery are getting pulled in from the
sidelines.
The jobless rates for African-American and Latino workers are
near record lows. The unemployment rate for black men was as high
as 19.3% in March 2010, but was down to 6.3% in May. The jobless
rate for those without a high-school diploma -- who constitute much
of the low-wage workforce -- touched a 25-year low late last year,
and has held below 6% this year.
A tightening labor market should in theory boost wages. Recent
evidence suggests this is occurring for the less-educated.
Witnessing other Americans finding jobs, as well as receiving
increased skills training and access to services like child care,
is helping boost sentiment among lower-income Americans, said
Maurice Jones, chief executive at Local Initiatives Support Corp.,
which focuses on community development.
"What folks are seeing around them are companies hiring," Mr.
Jones said. "That gives people some confidence and optimism about
their chances of either getting a full-time job if they're working
part time or a job with higher wages if they're looking for that or
a first-time job."
Write to Sarah Chaney at sarah.chaney@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2018 12:38 ET (16:38 GMT)
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