Eurozone Business Activity Continues to Slow for Fourth Straight Month -- Update
May 23 2018 - 6:57AM
Dow Jones News
By Paul Hannon
Business activity in the eurozone slowed for the fourth straight
month in May and more sharply than expected, a survey of
manufacturers and service providers showed, a sign that economic
growth has yet to rebound from a surprisingly weak showing in the
first quarter.
The eurozone economy entered 2018 on a high, having recorded its
fastest expansion in a decade during 2017 as it outpaced the U.S.
for the second straight year. But official figures for the first
three months of the year recorded a sharp slowdown, which
economists have largely attributed to a combination of unusually
cold weather, strikes in the eurozone's two largest members, and a
severe flu outbreak in Germany.
Most economists had expected to see stronger growth during the
rest of the year, but there are as yet few signs of a revival. Data
firm IHS Markit Wednesday said its composite Purchasing Managers
Index for the currency area-based on survey responses from 5,000
businesses-fell to 54.1 in May from 55.1 in April. A reading above
50.0 signals an expansion in activity. That was the lowest reading
for 18 months, and a weaker outcome than the decline to 54.8
forecast by economists who were surveyed by The Wall Street Journal
last week.
"It's...becoming increasingly evident that underlying growth
momentum has slowed compared to late last year, especially in
relation to exports, " said Chris Williamson, chief business
economist at IHS Markit, who cautioned that businesses reported
some disruption from an unusually high number of public
holidays.
The continued weakness of business surveys suggests the
first-quarter slowdown may not have been entirely due to passing
headwinds, but instead to more long-lasting impediments. There are
some signs that businesses are being hindered by a shortage of
skilled workers, while worries about a possible trade conflict with
the U.S. may have made some wary of signing off on new deals.
If sustained, a cooling of the eurozone's $10 trillion economy
could impact other parts of the world, including the U.S. Its
weakness in the first three months of the year was a major factor
behind a slowdown in growth across the developed economies. The
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Wednesday
said economic output in its 35 members increased by just 0.5% in
the first quarter, the third straight period in which a slowdown
was recorded and the weakest expansion since the third quarter of
2016.
Uncertainty about the durability of first-quarter weaknesses are
likely to have a bearing on the European Central Bank's next big
decision, which concerns when and how to bring a bond-buying
stimulus program known as quantitative easing to a conclusion. As
2018 began, ECB watchers expected policy makers to announce in June
that the program would end in December, and possibly as early as
September if growth and inflation proved strong enough. But many
now believe the ECB will delay making that call until July, and
that a September termination date is unlikely.
The surveys recorded a particularly sharp slowdown in France's
services sector, which more than offset a pickup for that country's
manufacturers. Activity slowed in both the German manufacturing and
services sectors.
The surveys also suggest that activity is unlikely to rebound
sharply over coming months, as new orders fell again in May and to
their lowest level since October 2016.
There were few signs of the pickup in inflationary pressures
long sought by the ECB. Businesses raised the prices they charge at
the slowest pace since September 2017, citing weak demand. The
annual rate of inflation fell to 1.2% in April from 1.3% in March,
well below the central bank's target of just below 2%.
Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 23, 2018 06:42 ET (10:42 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.