Oil Mixed After Venezuela Election Puts Supply at Risk
May 21 2018 - 11:14AM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Alessi and Alison Sider
Oil prices were mixed Monday, as investors weighed further crude
supply disruptions in Venezuela against the prospect that the
European Union will help keep Iran's oil flowing.
U.S. crude futures rose 33 cents, or 0.46%, to $71.61 a barrel
on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark,
fell 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.35 a barrel on ICE Futures
Europe.
Brent prices came under pressure as Iran and the EU tried to
salvage the 2015 international nuclear agreement. Iranian officials
vowed over the weekend to uphold the pact curbing its nuclear
activities if the EU could offset renewed U.S. sanctions.
"That could mitigate any impacts on Iranian exports," said Andy
Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The planned reimposition of U.S. economic sanctions on Iran
following President Donald Trump's decision earlier this month to
withdraw from the 2015 agreement has bolstered oil prices
lately.
Analysts estimated that anywhere from 400,000 to 1 million
barrels a day of Iran's current 2.4 million barrels a day of crude
exports could be at risk. International oil firms like France's
Total SA have already announced their intention to abandon planned
energy projects in Iran following the U.S. decision.
But the victory of Venezuela's far-left president, Nicolás
Maduro, on Sunday in a race that was called illegitimate by the
opposition and foreign governments paves the way for the imposition
of stricter international sanctions, including potential new U.S.
measures targeting the country's already-hindered oil industry.
"The specter of U.S. oil sanctions on the embattled Latin
American producer now looms large as Washington strives to tighten
the financial noose," according to Stephen Brennock, analyst at
brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd.
Venezuelan crude output fell 50,000 barrels a day month-on-month
in April, to stand at 1.42 million barrels a day, according to the
International Energy Agency's latest monthly oil market report.
"Washington has already enforced economic measures that impair
Venezuela's ability to finance projects and pay back debt. With the
oil sector spiraling deeper into crisis, it is possible that
capacity could fall by several hundred thousand barrels a day by
the end of the year," the IEA report noted.
Both Iran and Venezuela are members of the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries, which -- in coordination with other
producers outside the cartel like Russia -- has already been
holding back crude output by around 1.8 million barrels a day since
the start of last year. The cuts, which are set to expire at the
end of 2018, were part of an effort to rein in a global supply glut
that had weighed on prices since late 2014.
But excess supply has now largely been mopped up, with
commercial petroleum stocks at their lowest level in over three
years and prices having largely recovered. Brent last week
temporarily breached the symbolic $80-a-barrel threshold for the
first time since 2014.
Gasoline futures fell 0.04% to $2.2293 a gallon. Diesel futures
fell 0.37% to $2.2572 a gallon.
Write to Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com and
Alison Sider at alison.sider@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2018 10:59 ET (14:59 GMT)
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