Stock Funds Suffering Big Outflows as Rattled Investors Rush to the Exits
April 26 2018 - 04:56PM
Dow Jones News
By Asjylyn Loder
Investors are dumping U.S. stock funds at one of the fastest
paces in a decade as rising market turbulence erodes confidence in
the nine-year-old bull market.
U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds suffered $2.4
billion in outflows for the week ended April 18, according to the
Investment Company Institute. That followed $41 billion in outflows
from these funds in February -- the biggest monthly exodus since
January 2008, ICI data show. Overall, investors have yanked $67
billion out of these stock funds since the start of February.
That rush for the exits marked a sharp reversal from January,
when investors poured $10.8 billion into U.S. equity funds, helping
propel major indexes to record highs.
"Suddenly it's changed and everyone is trying to get out of the
crowded theater first," said Darren Pollock, a portfolio manager
for Cheviot Value Management, a Beverly Hills asset manager. "There
was an opportunity to lock in gains from what had been such a
strong rally, then step aside and see what happens next."
While the outflows account for less than 1% of assets in U.S.
equity funds, the flood of cash leaving stock funds marks a shift
from the buy-the-dip mentality that characterized much of last
year.
Back then, markets were calmer and nearly every decline was
seized as an opportunity for bargain buying. Solid corporate
earnings, the slow advance of interest rates and a pickup in global
growth forecasts gave stocks an added boost.
But that benign backdrop for stocks began to crumble in early
February amid fears that inflation has become the biggest hazard
for the aging bull market. Signs of rising prices for goods and
services spurred a selloff, shattering a prolonged period of market
calm. The S&P 500 stock index has fallen 7% from the all-time
high reached in January.
Inflation has made a potential liability out of good news, like
wage growth and a strengthening economy, since it could prompt the
Federal Reserve to accelerate interest-rate increases. The prospect
of rising rates has weakened a key justification for the sky-high
corporate valuations, and has made stocks less appealing by
offering higher returns on risk-free savings.
Inflation fears got an added jolt this week as oil prices rose
to a three-year high and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury
note topped 3% for the first time since 2014.
"A lot of investors are really primed to see inflation coming
in, and that freaks them out," said Megan Greene, chief economist
at Manulife Asset Management. It's the biggest concern she hears
from the firm's clients.
Outflows are also a response to the threat of a trade war,
political upheaval and a tech stock rout, all of which have kept
Wall Street's fear gauge elevated. The Cboe Volatility Index, a
measure of traders' expectations for market moves, spent most of
2017 near historic lows but has risen 50% since the start of the
year, according to FactSet.
But some say investors may be overreacting to headlines,
ignoring the health of the U.S. economy and the strength of
corporate earnings, when there's little to suggest that a recession
is near.
"People overly focus on news flow, like trade concerns or
geopolitical issues," said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity
strategist for Credit Suisse AG. "As long as the economy stays away
from a recession, stocks are way more likely to surprise to the
upside."
--Daniel Kruger contributed to this article.
Write to Asjylyn Loder at asjylyn.loder@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 26, 2018 16:41 ET (20:41 GMT)
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