BOND REPORT: 10-year Treasury Yield Highest In Three Weeks After Fed Rate Hike
March 21 2018 - 4:39PM
Dow Jones News
By William Watts, MarketWatch , Sunny Oh
Treasury yields rose modestly on Wednesday as the Federal
Reserve delivered its first rate hike of the year, highlighting the
strength of the economic outlook.
However, the central bank kept its projections for the number of
rate hike this year to three instead of the more aggressive four,
as some had anticipated.
What are Treasury yields doing?
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was up by 2 basis points
to 2.901%, the highest since Feb. 27, while the 30-year Treasury
bond yield picked up 1.3 basis points to 3.126%, according to WSJ
Market Data Group.
The 2-year note yield , the most sensitive to expectations for
monetary policy, fell 2.5 basis point to 2.312%, slipping away from
its highest levels since Sept. 2008.
Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
What's driving the market?
The Fed's rate setting Federal Open Market Committee delivered a
quarter-percentage-point rate hike, as expected, bringing up the
fed-funds rate to 1.50% to 1.75%. The so-called dot plot--made up
of individual policy maker's anonymous rate forecasts--kept a
median forecast of three rate increases in 2018, frustrating the
expectations of hawkish analysts who saw upside risks to growth and
inflation would pressure the central bank to lift their projection
to four rate increases this year.
The dot plot did, however, raise the forecast for interest rates
by the end of 2020 to around 3.4%. That is well above the Fed's
revised estimate of 2.9% for the neutral rate, or where interest
rates neither stimulates or slows economic activity.
Economic projections for inflation and unemployment were
virtually unchanged for this year, but the statement highlighted
strengthening growth and inflation in the near-term. The
introduction of fiscal stimulus into the ninth year of the economic
expansion and the general improvement in economic data has shifted
traders' attention to a buildup of inflationary pressures this
year.
In the news conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he
didn't see signs that inflation would accelerate, asserting the
need for a "middle ground" when it came to hiking interest
rates.
See:Fed raises interest rates, but it's sticking to cautious
strategy for 2018
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-lifts-rates-in-powells-first-meeting-says-outlook-has-strengthened-2018-03-21)
Read: Fed hikes rates and boosts outlook ahead of Powell press
conference: live blog and video
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-interest-rate-decision-and-powell-press-conference-live-blog-and-video-2018-03-21)
What are analysts saying?
With increased fiscal stimulus, the improvement of the economic
data "and the likelihood that economic prospects continue to
improve, FOMC policy makers want to pursue monetary-policy
normalization process at a somewhat faster pace, but do not want to
foster the impression that they will be aggressive and risk an
economic downturn," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist
for Jefferies, in a note.
"They're saying the changes are taking place in fiscal policy
are meaningful, and will warrant an increase in the fed-funds rate
over time. That's still a fairly consistent policy stance. But
Powell uses this term middle ground to defining this balance, and
why we're looking at three hikes and not four," said Janelle
Woodward, global co-head of income at BMO Global Asset
Management.
See:What to expect from the new Fed dot plot on interest rates
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-expect-from-the-new-fed-dot-plot-on-interest-rates-2018-03-16)
What's on tap for economic data
The National Association of Realtors reported existing home
sales for February
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-snap-back-even-as-inventory-slides-to-a-fresh-low-2018-03-21)ran
at an annual pace of 5.54 million in February, jumping 3% from
January.
What other assets are on the move?
The German 10-year government bond yield ticked up by 1.1 basis
point to 0.590%.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 21, 2018 16:24 ET (20:24 GMT)
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