Venezuela Bonds Slide Following Sanctions Threat
July 24 2017 - 5:34PM
Dow Jones News
By Carolyn Cui
Venezuelan bond prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the
year as default fears grew following U.S. President Donald Trump's
threat to impose sanctions on the country.
State-owned oil producer Petróleos de Venezuela SA's bonds due
in November fell 2.9% late in New York trading Monday and have
tumbled 7.6% over the past six sessions, now at their lowest levels
since December, according to Thomson Reuters data. The government's
bonds due in 2038 were down 10% during the period after falling
4.3% on Monday.
A selloff in the country's debt has accelerated since Mr.
Trump's statement a week ago, which followed a referendum by
millions of Venezuelans that rejected President Nicolás Maduro's
plan to rewrite the country's constitution. Mr. Trump called Mr.
Maduro "a bad leader," and said that the U.S. "will take strong and
swift economic actions" unless Mr. Maduro abandons plans to pick a
new constituent assembly on July 30, which could bypass the current
congress under the opposition's control.
The statement has fueled concerns that the U.S. might unveil a
new round of sanctions on Venezuela that could cripple the
country's energy sector. Oil exports are the primary source of
dollar revenues for Venezuela, analysts say. Meanwhile, the head of
PdVSA's union is calling for oil workers to join an anti-Maduro
strike, which could also lead to disruptions to the country's oil
production.
"If there's a sudden interruption in terms of cash flow, they
are not going to pay anything," said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin
America fixed-income strategy at Nomura Securities International.
"The perception is for near-term default."
So far the U.S. administration hasn't detailed the possible
sanctions, but a senior U.S. administration official said last week
one option could be to ban Venezuela's crude-oil exports to the
U.S.
Buying Venezuelan debt was a winning trade last year, before it
recently turned into a tough undertaking.
For years, some investors have been scooping up near-term bonds
issued by Venezuela at deep discounts, collecting coupon payments
and betting that the government would service its debt as long as
it can. That trade returned 53% in 2016, a top performer in
emerging markets, according to J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. For the
first half of 2017, these bonds were up 2.5%, while emerging-market
debt gained 6.2%.
Lately, the combination of a challenging political environment
and strained finances has raised questions over the government's
willingness and ability to pay.
Between its sovereign and PdVDA bonds, Venezuela still has about
$5 billion in principal and coupon payments until the end of the
year. Its total international reserves, including gold, have fallen
to about $10 billion, a 15-year low, according to its central
bank.
In May, Venezuela sold bonds worth $2.8 billion to Goldman Sachs
Asset Management at a 69% discount as a way to raise cash.
Given the already-severe economic and humanitarian crisis in
Venezuela, some analysts say they are skeptical the U.S. will
impose harsh sanctions on the country's oil sector.
Ms. Morden, who expects the sanctions to be on individuals, said
"until we have some definition, the market will remain
jittery."
Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2017 17:19 ET (21:19 GMT)
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